低油價危及俄中天然氣合約經濟效益

Gazprom’s 30-year contract for gas supplies to China was based on an optimistic view of the oil market and offered no protection in the event of a prolonged period of low prices, the Russian company said yesterday.

俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)昨日表示，其向中國供應天然氣的30年合約當初是基於對石油市場的樂觀看法，沒有針對價格持續低迷的情形安排保護措施。

The contract between the state-controlled Russian gas group and China’s CNPC was signed with much fanfare in May 2014, envisaging $400bn of gas deliveries over 30 years in what Gazprom said was the largest contract in its history.

這家國有控股的俄羅斯天然氣集團與中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)在2014年5月大張旗鼓地簽署了這份合約，計劃在30年期間輸送價值4000億美元的天然氣。Gazprom當時稱，這是其史上最大的合同。

However, since then oil prices have fallen more than 50 per cent, potentially imperilling the economics of the project, whose development cost Gazprom has estimated at $55bn.

然而，自那以來油價已下跌超過50%，潛在危及該項目的經濟性。據Gazprom估計，項目開發成本將達到550億美元。

Gazprom confirmed yesterday that the gas price under the contract with CNPC would be linked to a basket of oil- product benchmarks.

Gazprom昨日證實，按照與中石油簽署的合約，天然氣價格將與一籃子石油產品基準掛鉤。

Asked whether the contract built in protections to ensure that Gazprom would not make a loss in the event of a prolonged period of low oil prices, Pavel Oderov, a director at the company, said: “We have registered high-risk appetite for this contract and we do not envisage such an event.”

在被問及這份合約是否包括保護機制、以確保Gazprom不會在油價持續低迷的情況下虧損時，該公司的一名總監帕維爾攠德若夫(Pavel Oderov)表示：“我們在這份合約上表現出高風險偏好，沒有設想這樣的情形。”

Ildar Davletshin, oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said that if current oil prices persisted, the project, named “Power of Siberia”, would probably be unprofitable for Gazprom.

莫斯科晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)油氣分析師伊達達夫列特申(Ildar Davletshin)表示，如果油價維持在當前水平，被命名爲“西伯利亞力量”(Power of Siberia)的這個項目對Gazprom來說很可能是無利可圖的。

Analysts estimate that the gas price implied by the contract was about $350/thousand cubic metres when it was signed; given the 50 per cent decline in oil prices since then “it could be as low as $175/thousand cubic metres — clearly a lossmaking level”, Mr Davletshin said.

分析師們估計，合約簽署時，其隱含的天然氣價格約爲350美元/千立方米；鑑於自那以來油價下滑50%，達夫列特申表示，“現在有可能低至175美元/千立方米——顯然是一個虧損的水平”。

Separately, the Russian government is preparing to support the project. According to a document published by the Kremlin yesterday, President Vladimir Putin ordered the government to draw up, by the start of September, a “comprehensive action plan to ensure government support for the construction of gas transport infrastructure, including the Power of Siberia pipeline”.

與此同時，俄羅斯政府正準備支持該項目。根據克里姆林宮昨日發佈的一份文件，弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)總統下令政府最遲在9月初拿出一份“全面行動計劃，以確保政府對天然氣運輸基礎設施建設的支持，包括‘西伯利亞力量’管道”。

Gazprom said it had no plans to request state support, but that such a step might be necessary in the future.

Gazprom表示，目前沒有計劃請求國家支持，但這一步可能在未來是必要的。