[經濟廣角]中國的鋼鐵熱爲什麼涼了?

就在國內四處洋溢中國鋼鐵新一波增長時，通化鋼鐵發生嚴重暴力事件，將國人的眼光再一次定格在了中國的鋼鐵企業上，在感慨時間的同時，不得不重思中國鋼鐵業的現狀。

How China's Steel Boom（激增，興隆） Turned Deadly

Chinese officials say they are on course to （走向）achieve GDP growth of about 8% this year, and the fall's dire （可怕的）predictions of massive unemployment leading to social upheaval（動盪） haven't been borne out. But last week's killing of a steel-company executive by striking workers in northeastern China highlights the ongoing threat of labor unrest（勞工暴亂） even as the country shows signs of emerging from the economic downturn.

On Friday, July 24, thousands of workers at the state-owned Tonghua Iron and Steel Group（國有通化鋼鐵公司） in Jilin province protested the planned takeover of their employer by the privately held Jianlong Steel（建龍鋼鐵公司）, according to reports in the Chinese press and from the Hong Kong–based Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy（人權和民主信息中心）. Some of the steelworkers rioted and beat to death Chen Guojun, a Jianlong representative. Jianlong had previously purchased a stake in Tonghua, and workers feared that with a takeover the company would lay off thousands of Tonghua employees. "Chen disillusioned workers and provoked them by saying most of them would be laid off in three days," said a Tonghua police officer named Wang, according to the state-run China Daily. "Chen, saying that a total number of 30,000 employees would be cut to 5,000, infuriated the crowd."

Friday's violence occurred as prospects for China's steel industry are turning around. The government's $586 billion stimulus package has set off a massive infrastructure-building spree（基礎設施建設狂潮）, creating a huge demand for steel. In June crude-steel production hit nearly 50 million tons — 6% higher than in the previous year, according to the World Steel Association（世界鋼鐵協會）, and close to an all-time high. "Demand has just exploded in the first half of this year as a result of the government's stimulus package and bank lending," says Jim Lennon, a Macquarie Bank analyst. "Steel demand is massive."

But that massive demand offers only a temporary respite （緩兵之計）for Chinese policymakers. Over the past decade, China has rapidly built new steel mills（鋼鐵廠）, and in 2002 it became the world's largest producer of the commodity. Now Chinese officials say the country has more production capability than markets at home and abroad can support. In February, Luo Bingsheng, secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association, said China's steel-production capacity exceeded the 2008 domestic demand of 500 million tons by 160 million tons. China's State Council（中國國務院） has called for a consolidation of the industry in order to manage output better, with five major producers generating 45% of Chinese steel by 2011.

The government similarly hopes to cut the number of major automakers （汽車製造廠）from 14 to 10 and to consolidate（合併，鞏固） the estimated 5,000 cement producers. Such restructuring should leave China with stronger, more stable industries. But the process will be painful. Workers often find themselves with little say in matters and few chances to negotiate for better severance or retraining, says Geoffrey Crothall, spokesman for the Hong Kong–based China Labour Bulletin（中國勞工通訊）, a workers'-rights NGO. "Downsizing and consolidation in and of itself is not the problem. It's the way in which that process is undertaken," Crothall says. "What has been the case for many years is the privatization（私人化） and restructuring of state-owned enterprises. The selling-off of state-owned assets （廉價銷售國有財產）and merger of state-owned companies has nearly always been done behind closed doors. The workers are never involved —they are simply presented with an ultimatum（最後通牒）." Employees are angry not just because of their lack of input, Crothall says, but often also because the process is tainted by corruption. "Workers have no idea about the true value of the assets that are being privatized," he says. "Very often they accuse management — correctly in many cases — of embezzling（貪污，盜用） assets in league with corrupt officials."

In the case of Tonghua Iron and Steel, it seems the steel industry's turnaround helped spark the riot. Jianlong had invested in the company in 2005 but then pulled out as Tonghua lost money amid the global downturn this spring. But as China's steel demand surged, Tonghua turned a profit of $6 million last month, renewing Jianlong's interest. After the killing of Jianlong's representative on Friday, the local government announced the deal was canceled, China Daily reported.

Keke Vew: 7月24日，數千通鋼職工及家屬聚集通鋼廠區，要求重組“主角”建龍鋼鐵撤出通鋼。在得知建龍新派駐總經理陳國軍在焦化工廠後，通鋼職工趕到焦化廠，對陳進行多次歐打，當晚，陳重傷身亡。兩年多來，通鋼員工對管理層的不滿在通鋼與建龍上層至少是有所耳聞的，但這個問題並沒有得到管理層及時有效的解決。員工要求被忽視，造成員工對管理層矛盾的積聚，最終導到了7月24日血案的發生。