中國股市止跌回升 恐慌情緒未散大綱

HONG Kong — Chinese investors, who have watched as their shares have gone down 30 percent or more over the past few weeks, got a reprieve on Thursday. Stocks rose as a series of Market-propping government measures appeared to have the intended effect.
香港——在過去幾周裏看着自己的股票價值下跌30％或更多的中國投資者週四緩了口氣。政府一系列的就市措施似乎有了預期的效果，股票開始上漲。

The main Shanghai index fell nearly 4 percent at the open of trading on Thursday but recovered to finish the day 5.8 percent higher, while shares in Shenzhen gained 3.8 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 3.9 percent, after falling nearly 6 percent the day before. Markets in the region also turned positive, with the Nikkei 225 share average in Japan and the Kospi in South Korea both closing 0.6 percent higher.
上海的主要股指週四開盤時一度下跌了4％，但很快恢復過來，最終以5.8％的增幅收盤，而深圳的股指上漲了3.8％。香港的恆生指數上漲了3.9％，這是在前天下跌了近6％之後。亞洲地區的其他市場也轉爲正值，日本的日經225平均股價指數和韓國的綜合股價指數收盤時都上漲了0.6％。

But even as shares rose, there were warnings that mainland markets have further to fall. Valuations of many small companies remain too high, and the government and state-owned companies are unlikely to buy up those shares, preferring to bid up the prices of more fairly priced larger companies, analysts say.
但是，即使股價上漲，但仍有警告說，大陸的股市有進一步下跌的空間。分析人士表示，許多小公司的市值仍然過高，政府和國有企業不太可能會購進這些公司的股票，而是寧願把市值更合理的較大公司的股價擡高。

The only solution to the market rout is for the Chinese central bank to further loosen up the flow of money to restore momentum to economic growth, said Li-Gang Liu, chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. “Once investors see a rebound in China’s real economy, confidence may return,” he said.
澳大利亞和新西蘭銀行集團的大中華區首席經濟學家劉利剛說，解決市場潰敗的唯一辦法是，中國央行進一步放鬆貨幣流通，以恢復經濟增長的勢頭。他說，“一旦投資者看到中國的實體經濟出現反彈，信心可能就會回來。”

Economists are divided over how big of an impact the decline in the market will have on China’s economy, but many argue that itwill hurt consumer sentiment and limit the amount the middle class is willing to spend on goods and property. That would weaken consumption at a time when China’s economic growth is already slowing.
雖然經濟學家們對股市下滑將對中國經濟有多大影響的看法有分歧，但許多人認爲，股市下滑會不利於消費者信心，並會使中產階層限制其願意花在購物和購置房地產上的錢的數量。這會在中國經濟增長已經放緩的時候削弱消費。

According to an estimate by HSBC, about 15 percent of the assets of Chinese households are locked up in the stock market. Many are probably still holding shares whose value is quickly diminishing, unable to get rid of them because trading in those stocks has been suspended by the companies or the shares quickly drop after the market open to the daily 10 percent limit on losses.
據匯豐銀行估計，中國家庭資產的約15％被套在了股市。許多人可能仍持有價值正在迅速減少的公司股份，無法將其出售，因爲這些股票的交易或已被公司暫停，或在市場開盤後很快下跌超過每天10％的下限後停盤。

Shares of more than one-third of companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen are suspended from trading, in part from rules designed to limit price declines and put a check on panic selling.
超過三分之一的上海和深圳上市公司的股票交易停盤，這部分是由於股市的規則，這些規則的目的是限制股價大跌，防止由之引起的恐慌性拋售。

“These kind of administrative measures are continuing, and over all they will only have a limited effect,” said Mr. Liu. “The rules can probably stop the market rout temporarily, but it won’t change the overall fundamentals.”
“這種行政措施仍在繼續，總體來說，它們只將會有有限的影響，”劉利剛說。“這些規則大概能讓市場崩潰暫時停止，但無法改變整體市場的基本法則。”

Beijing continued to introduce measures to stabilize the markets on Thursday, with the Public Security Ministry saying that it was investigating “malicious” short sellers in a bid to cut down on illegal market activity, according to Xinhua, the state-run news agency.
北京在週四繼續採取穩定市場的措施。據國家通訊社新華社報道，公安部稱正在調查“惡意”做空者，以力圖減少市場上的非法活動。

On Wednesday, China’s security regulator banned investors who hold more than 5 percent of a company from selling that company’s shares. The regulator also indicated that it would relax trading laws for corporate insiders looking to buy back shares at a low price. Large state-owned companies have been ordered to purchase shares, and the government has halted new initial public offerings and had brokerage firms form a market stabilization fund.
週三，中國的證券監管者宣佈，禁止持有公司股份5％以上的大股東出售公司的股票。監管機構還表示，將對尋求低價回購股票的企業內部人士放寬交易法。大型國有企業已被責令回購股票，政府已停止首次公開募股，並讓證券交易所建立市場穩定基金。

A potentially more worrying problem is that companies that took loans based on inflated share prices have invested that money back into the market. Still, Mr. Liu said that type of margin financing was only a small part, roughly 2 trillion renminbi, or $326 billion, of Chinese banks’ total balance sheets of 180 trillion renminbi, and therefore does not pose a major threat.
一個更令人擔憂的潛在問題是，用膨脹的市值作抵押來借貸的公司，已將資金重新投入股市。不過，劉利剛說，這種類型的融資融券只是很小的一部分，大約爲2萬億人民幣，而中國所有銀行的總資產負債表上有180萬億元，因此並不構成一個重大的威脅。