亞洲貨幣戰爭即將重演 新興市場外匯儲備規模再創新高

Before the global financial crisis, the strange phenomenon of 'uphill' capital flows--money moving out of middle-income economies and into richer ones--garnered considerable attention. While private capital was flowing in the opposite direction, net flows were driven by emerging markets' accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, mostly stashed in the government bonds of advanced economies.

全球金融危機之前，資本“倒流”的奇怪現象引起了人們的很大關注。所謂資本“倒流”，是指資本從中等收入經濟體流入比較富裕的經濟體。雖然私人資本的流向與此相反，但由於新興市場國家外匯儲備的積累，總體而言資本仍呈現由中等收入經濟體向較富裕經濟體淨流出的局面。新興市場國家的外匯儲備大多以發達經濟體政府債券的形式存在。

A confluence of recent events, some of them little noticed, has set the stage for this trend to resume, with emerging markets stockpiling reserves in ever-greater quantities. Currency tensions, with Asian economies again at the forefront, are set to rise. A prime cause of the problem will be the lessons leaders learned from Washington's response to the financial crisis of 2008.

近期的一些事件，加之新興市場外匯儲備規模再創新高等因素，已爲這種趨勢的持續奠定了基礎。貨幣緊張局勢定將加劇，而這次首當其衝的又將是亞洲經濟體。各國領導人從美國政府應對2008年金融危機過程中吸取的教訓將成爲導致這個問題的一個主因。

Most emerging markets now have more open capital accounts. So while they benefit from the free flow of capital, they are also increasingly exposed to volatility and other byproducts of those flows. The quantitative easing operations of the Fed and other advanced economy central banks pushed capital out to emerging markets, fueling rising inflation, asset price booms, and rapid currency appreciation in the developing world. Then the Fed's tapering of its monetary policy last year temporarily reversed those flows and exposed the ongoing vulnerability of many emerging market economies.

多數新興市場的資本項目現在都更加開放。所以，當新興市場得益於資本自由流動的同時，它們也越來越多地暴露于波動性和資本自由流動帶來的其他副作用之下。美聯儲(Fed)和其他發達經濟體央行推出的定量寬鬆舉措使資本流向新興市場，推動發展中世界通脹率上升、資產價格走高、本幣快速升值。之後，美聯儲去年縮減刺激性貨幣政策規模又暫時逆轉了這種資本流向，暴露出很多新興市場經濟體的脆弱性。

Couldn't the Fed help countries beset by problems triggered by its policies? The recently released transcripts of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meetings in 2008 provide fascinating insights into the thinking of policy makers. They show that the Fed's actions are governed by strict national self-interest, not a wider sense of responsibility given the dollar's status as the global reserve currency.

美聯儲就不能幫助那些受到美國政策問題困擾的國家嗎？通過最近公佈的美國聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee)2008年會議記錄可深入瞭解美國政策制定者的想法。記錄顯示，美聯儲的行動完全依照美國自身利益決定，並不因美元的全球儲備貨幣地位而有更廣泛的責任感。

During the financial crisis, the group of developing economies that received the Fed's benediction in the form of dollar swap lines was highly selective. The list included Brazil, Korea, Mexico and Singapore --countries with close economic ties to the U.S. Moreover, Fed officials viewed their dollar reserves as a form of implicit collateral for the swap lines. In other words, higher levels of reserves increased the chances of getting a dollar swap line at crunch time.

金融危機期間，那些受到美聯儲美元互換協議恩惠的發展中經濟體都是經過千挑萬選的。其中有巴西、韓國、墨西哥和新加坡，這些國家都與美國有着密切的經濟關係。而且美聯儲官員將這些國家的美元儲備當做互換協議的一種形式的隱性擔保。換句話說，儲備水平越高，在美元緊缺時期獲得美元互換協議的機會就越大。

Some Fed officials considered Chile and India as possible recipients, but were reluctant to open the 'floodgates' to requests from other countries. The transcripts redact the other countries that requested swap lines, but it is clear from the context and from other sources that it was a large number.

一些美聯儲官員也曾考慮把智利和印度作爲提供美元互換協議的潛在對象，但卻不願打開向其他國家提供美元的閘門。會議記錄對於要求籤訂貨幣互換協議的國家一筆帶過，但從語境和其他信息判斷，顯然有不少國家曾提出這一要求。

Meanwhile, turning to the IMF in times of trouble is becoming less attractive for emerging economies, mainly because the institution lacks legitimacy in the eyes of policy makers. Reforms to give these countries greater representation at the IMF that befit their rising importance have stalled. These governance reforms were initially blocked by European countries that stood to lose ground. Now political gridlock in the U.S. has stymied the reforms. The U.S. administration has been a strong advocate for change, but its hands are tied by Congress.

與此同時，對於新興經濟體來說，在困難時向IMF求援的吸引力已經降低了，這主要是因爲在決策者看來IMF缺乏合法性。此前IMF曾推進改革，賦予新興國家更多代表權以反映其不斷上升的重要性，但這項改革已經停滯。這項IMF治理權改革最初受到歐洲國家的阻撓，因爲他們需要在改革中讓渡權力。現在則是美國的政治僵局妨礙了IMF的改革。美國政府曾積極倡導改革，但受到了來自國會的束縛。

Emerging markets realize that, no matter how sound their policies may be, they are subject to whiplash from the policies of advanced economy central banks. Top G-20 officials spoke loftily of central bank coordination at their recent summit in Sydney. But in reality, there is no mechanism to make central banks take measures that would contravene their national mandates for the benefit of other countries.

新興市場國家意識到，無論他們的政策多麼完善，他們都會受到來自發達經濟體央行政策的影響。G-20會議的高級官員們最近在悉尼的峯會上大談特談央行協調的問題。但現實情況是，沒有一種機制能夠使得央行採取違背國家使命而施惠於他國的措施。

So it's not irrational for emerging-economy policy makers to conclude that the best way to insure themselves against a future crisis is to act today in a way that would encourage developed-economy leaders to help. And a reading of the criteria the Fed used when parceling out international assistance suggests dollar reserve accumulation is the best way to force the Fed to take notice.

因此，新興經濟體的決策者得出結論，規避未來危機的最好方式是現在就採取可以鼓勵發達經濟體領導人出手相救的措施，他們得出這樣的結論也不無道理。美聯儲實施國際援助的標準顯示，累積美元儲備是迫使美聯儲予以關注的最好方式。

The key question now is how much of a reserve is enough. Conventional views of reserve adequacy--enough to cover short-term external debt or six months of imports--are no longer relevant. During the worst of the crisis, some emerging markets with massive reserves lost nearly a third of them in less than a year.

現在關鍵的問題是，多少美元儲備才足夠。傳統觀點認爲，可以覆蓋短期外部債務或六個月進口額的外匯儲備規模是適當的。但這一觀點已經不再適用。在危機最嚴重的時期，一些擁有大量外匯儲備的新興市場國家的外匯儲備在不到一年的時間內縮水了近三分之一。

What's for sure is that once speculators smell blood, they attack a currency relentlessly and reserves can evaporate quickly. The only way to protect a currency is to have enough reserves to deter speculators. No one knows exactly how much that will take. So the motto of central bankers has become more is better.

可以確定的一點是，一旦投機者聞到了血腥味，他們會無情地攻擊一種貨幣，而該國的外匯儲備可能很快消失殆盡。保護一種貨幣唯一的方式是擁有足夠多的外匯儲備以便遏制投機者。沒有人知道確切的數目。因此央行官員的座右銘變成了：越多越好。

Today, while the Fed continues to taper, private capital has begun to flow back to emerging markets. Even economies such as India and Indonesia that were battered by capital flight last year have benefited. The Bank of Japan recently signaled it was getting ready to open the monetary spigots wider. The People's Bank of China has taken forceful steps to prevent the yuan from appreciating even as it widened the currency's trading band. These trends only add to the pressure on other Asian emerging economies to hold down the value of their currencies and accumulate reserves.

如今，在美聯儲繼續縮減購債規模之際，私人資本開始重新流入新興市場，甚至印度和印尼這種在去年遭遇了資本大規模流出的國家也被惠及。日本央行最新暗示，已經準備好進一步放鬆貨幣政策。而儘管擴大了人民幣匯率浮動區間，但中國央行採取了強力措施抑制人民幣升值。這種趨勢只會增加其他亞洲新興經濟體壓低本幣匯率並積累外匯儲備的壓力。

All told, the events of the past year presage a return to uphill flows of capital and rising currency tensions. It certainly feels like monetary d谷j角 vu all over again.

總之，去年的變化預示着資本重新出現“倒流”現象，匯率緊張關係升級。這種感覺似曾相識。

Mr. Prasad is a professor at Cornell University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and author of 'The Dollar Trap' (Princeton, 2014).

Prasad是康奈爾大學(Cornell University)教授，布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)資深研究員，並且是《美元陷阱》(The Dollar Trap)一書的作者。