全球經濟新興市場貨幣匯率反彈
Emerging market currencies are benefiting from a “Goldilocks” global economy to rebound to their highest levels against the US dollar in a year.
新興市場貨幣正受益於“金髮姑娘般的”全球經濟，兌美元匯率反彈至一年高點。
JPMorgan’s index of emerging market currencies has climbed 5.8 per cent so far in 2016, driven by the Brazilian real and South African rand, as developing economies reap the rewards of stable global growth, led by the US, without the imminent threat of rising interest rates.
受巴西雷亞爾和南非蘭特驅動，摩根大通(JPMorgan)的新興市場貨幣指數2016年以來已上漲5.8%。目前發展中經濟體正受益於由美國引領的全球穩定增長，同時不存在迫在眉睫的加息威脅。
The UK’s decision to leave the EU and the Bank of England’s subsequent interest rate cut and asset buying have provided a further boost to emerging markets, increasing demand for riskier investments with higher returns as yields in developed markets fall to record lows.
英國決定離開歐盟以及英國央行(Bank of England)隨後的降息和資產購買，爲新興市場提供了進一步提振，在發達市場的收益率降至創紀錄低點之際，增加了對風險和回報都較高的投資的需求。
Credit analysts at Rabobank describe the gradual recovery of the US economy combined with external headwinds that have prevented the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as a “Goldilocks scenario”, adding that in such an environment demand for risky assets was likely to continue to rise.
荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)把當前局面形容爲“金髮女孩般的情景”：美國經濟逐步復甦，而外部不利因素阻止美聯儲(Federal Reserve)提高利率。他們補充稱，在這樣的環境下，對高風險資產的需求很可能會繼續上升。
South Africa’s rand has appreciated 14.8 per cent against the US dollar this year, helped by a rising gold price and greater risk appetite, while Brazil’s real has rallied to its highest level against the dollar for more than a year amid optimism that interim president Michel Temer can curb the country’s budget deficit.
南非蘭特今年對美元升值14.8%，得益於金價上漲和更大的風險偏好，而巴西雷亞爾對美元升至一年多來最高水平，目前各方樂觀地認爲，巴西臨時總統米歇爾•特梅爾(Michel Temer)能夠遏制該國的預算赤字。
The performance of emerging market currencies marks a reversal from last year, when the US dollar’s appreciation, falling oil prices and concerns about Chinese growth led international investors to recoil from riskier assets.
新興市場貨幣的表現標誌着逆轉去年的局面，當時美元升值、油價下跌以及有關中國經濟增長的擔憂導致國際投資者回避高風險資產。
“Over the past five years, conditions for emerging markets have been tough,” said Dean Newman, head of emerging markets equity at Invesco Perpetual, although he added that factors such as favourable demographics, urbanisation and a growing middle class had remained favourable.
“過去5年裏，新興市場的狀況一直很艱難，”景順基金(Invesco Perpetual)新興市場股票負責人迪恩•紐曼(Dean Newman)表示，儘管他補充說，各種有利因素，包括有利的人口結構、城市化和不斷壯大的中產階級，一直存在。
Now, the environment was more benevolent, said Devan Kaloo, head of global emerging markets at Aberdeen Asset Management. Although the US has reported better than expected jobs data, policymakers have been keen to stress they are in no rush to raise interest rates. “Barring any shocks, ‘lower-for-longer’ US rates should help support EM,” he said.
安本資產管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)新興市場股票主管德萬•卡盧(Devan Kaloo)表示，現在大環境變得更加友善。儘管美國報告了好於預期的就業數據，但政策制定者近來熱衷於強調他們並不急於升息。“只要不出現任何衝擊，‘在較低水平維持更久的’美國利率應該有助於支撐新興市場，”他說。
