中國2月外匯儲備降幅收窄 資本外流放緩
HONG KONG — Few economic statistics have gone as quickly from obscurity to the center of attention from international financial markets lately as China’s foreign currency reserves, widely seen as the best barometer of how long China can avoid a possible devaluation someday of its own currency.
香港——幾乎沒有幾個經濟數據像中國的外匯儲備這樣，在最近的國際金融市場上以如此快的速度從默默無聞轉變焦點，中國的外匯儲備被普遍視爲最佳的晴雨表，體現中國能夠在避免本國貨幣出現可能的貶值上堅持多久。
Monthly changes in the reserves these days mainly reflect how much money is being sent out of the country by Chinese companies and families nervous about the country’s economic slowdown and sweeping anticorruption investigations. Over the last five weeks, the Chinese government has waged an aggressive campaign to stem the outflow, through almost daily pledges by officials not to devalue and through much tighter enforcement of the rules on sending money overseas.
這段時間以來，外匯儲備的月度變化主要反映了中國公司和家庭由於擔心國內經濟增長放緩以及大範圍的反腐調查，把錢送往國外的程度。在過去五週中，中國政府發動了一場遏制資本外流的聲勢浩大的運動，其官員幾乎每天保證人民幣不會貶值，政府同時更嚴格地執行向海外匯款的規則。
Late Monday afternoon came word that the policies are starting to bear fruit: the erosion in China’s foreign exchange reserves slowed sharply last month from the pace of $100 billion a month that prevailed through the winter. Reserves fell by $28.6 billion last month, to $3.202 trillion.
週一晚間傳來消息表示，政策開始見成效：中國外匯儲備上月的減少從整個冬季的每月減少1000億美元的速度大幅放緩。外匯儲備在上個月減少了286億美元，降至3.202萬億美元。
Most economists had anticipated a somewhat larger drop in reserves — Barclays had expected a fall of $70 billion, for example. The decline announced on Monday “is an encouraging sign because the concern amongst a lot of the bears was that the outflows would keep accelerating — the fact they’ve eased is reassuring,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, the China economist for Capital Economics, a research firm based in London.
大多數經濟學家曾經預期的外匯儲備下降幅度比這個數字更大，比如巴克萊銀行(Barclays)此前的預計是下降700億美元。週一公佈的下降數字“是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，因爲很多持悲觀態度的人擔心，資本外流會繼續加速，外流已有所緩解這一事實令人欣慰”，在倫敦的研究機構凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)研究中國的經濟學家朱利安·埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)說。
Yi Gang, the senior deputy governor of the Chinese central bank, dismissed concerns about the nation’s currency during remarks earlier in the day outside the National People’s Congress session in Beijing. “The cross-border capital flows are in the normal range,” he said.
當天早些時候，中國央行副行長易綱在北京的全國人大會議期間，對有關中國貨幣的擔憂不屑一提。他說，“跨境資本流動在一個正常範圍。”
At a time of turmoil in world financial markets, the renminbi is actually among the most stable currencies, Mr. Yi added. “Our volatility, the fluctuations of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar and also the fluctuations against a basket of currencies, in reality and from a global perspective, are fundamentally the smallest.”
易綱補充說，在這個全球金融市場動盪的時候，人民幣實際上是最穩定的貨幣之一。“中國匯率的波動性是非常小的，人民幣對美元的波動和對一攬子貨幣的波動，在全世界來看都是最小的。”
China had caused alarm overseas and at home by devaluing its currency by 4 percent over three days in August, and by almost as much again over five weeks in late December and early January. But since then, the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has set the daily fixing of the renminbi against the dollar in Shanghai with no clear trend toward the strengthening or the weakening of the currency.
去年8月，中國在三天中讓人民幣貶值了4％，在海外和國內引起驚慌，之後在從去年12月到今年1月初的五週裏又讓人民幣貶值了幾乎同樣的百分比。但自那以來，央行中國人民銀行在上海設的每日人民幣兌美元的指導價，沒有給出人民幣走強還是走弱的明顯趨勢。
State-controlled Chinese banks have also intervened heavily in the less regulated Hong Kong market since January to protect the currency’s value here.
中國由國家控制的銀行1月以來也大量介入監管不那麼嚴格的香港市場，以保護這裏的人民幣幣值。
Defending China’s currency, the renminbi, could nonetheless remain a challenge for Beijing. Prime Minister Li Keqiang announced on Saturday that his government would step up China’s already brisk expansion of its money supply, further flooding the economy with renminbi in an effort to make sure that banks can keep pumping out loans to companies.
然而，保持中國貨幣人民幣的幣值對北京仍是一個挑戰。李克強總理週六宣佈，政府將增加中國已在快速擴張的貨幣供應量，進一步把人民幣注入經濟，作爲一種確保銀行能向公司不斷提供貸款的努力。
Mr. Li included the money supply target in a broader panoply of measures aimed at maintaining economic growth at 6.5 percent or higher through 2020. Monetary stimulus helps economic growth by holding down interest rates. But lower interest rates also make it less attractive to invest in a currency, which could fuel further outflows of money from China.
李克強宣佈的旨在到把經濟增長速度到2020年保持在6.5％或更高的一整套措施，包括了貨幣供應量目標。貨幣刺激政策通過壓低利率來幫助經濟增長。但是，低利率也使投資一種貨幣的吸引力減小，這可能進一步促使中國的資本外流。
The reserves are a far from perfect measure of money leaving China. For starters, the change in the total value of the reserves is not influenced just by how much the central bank spends in currency markets to offset the outflow of money by Chinese companies and families.
外匯儲備的數量並不是中國資金外流的完美衡量。首先，外匯儲備總量的變化不只受央行在貨幣市場花了多少錢來抵消中國企業和家庭送出的資金的影響。
Changes in the value of China’s vast hoard of government securities and some equities denominated in euros, yen, pounds and other currencies also affect the overall level of the reserves, which is quoted in dollars. Economists estimate that about two-fifths of the reserves are held in currencies other than the dollar, and the dollar weakened slightly against most currencies during February.
中國貯存的大量政府債券和歐元、日元、英鎊及其他貨幣計價的某些資產的價值的變化，也影響其外匯儲備以美元計價的總額。經濟學家估計，中國外匯儲備中的五分之二是以非美元的貨幣持有的，而在2月份，美元相對大多數貨幣有小幅貶值。
That suggests that the overall value of the reserves increased by about $13 billion last month because of currency moves — and indicates that the outflow of money in the last month may have been $13 billion greater than the figure of $28.6 billion that was announced on Monday morning.
這意味着，中國外匯儲備的總額由於匯率波動在上個月增加了約130億美元，也表明，上個月的資金外流可能比周一上午公佈的286億美元多130億美元。
Another consideration is China’s huge trade surplus, which brings another $50 billion or so into the country each month. The decline in reserves last month suggests that capital outflows may have totaled about $90 billion, using up all of the $50 billion or so from the trade surplus and the $13 billion or so from valuation changes, in addition to nearly $30 billion from the reserves.
另一個要考慮進來的因素是中國巨大的貿易順差，這使每月有500億美元左右的資金進入中國。外匯儲備上個月的下降表明，該月的資本外流總額可能約爲900億美元，這包括貿易順差所帶來的500億左右的美元，以及外匯儲備130億美元左右的價值變化，再加上近300億美元的外匯儲備下降。
The change in central bank reserves does not include one other variable that will not be released until later this month and will provide a further clue on outflows: how much state-controlled banks spent on intervention last month.
央行儲備的變化沒有包括另一個變量，它將在本月晚些時候公佈。該變量可以爲資本外流狀況提供進一步線索：國有銀行在上個月的干預中花了多少錢。
In the last two weeks, Chinese officials have said repeatedly that they do not see a need to devalue the country’s currency against the three baskets, or weighted averages, of various foreign currencies against which the central bank measures it. The Chinese central bank strengthened the renminbi against the dollar by nearly 0.3 percent on Monday morning in fixing the daily band of values within which the renminbi is allowed to trade in Shanghai.
在過去的兩週內，中國官員曾多次表示，他們認爲沒有必要讓人民幣相對於三個貨幣籃貶值——貨幣籃是被央行用來與人民幣做比較的多種外幣加權平均數。週一上午，通過設定人民幣在上海交易市場的每日價格浮動空間，中國央行讓人民幣對美元上漲近0.3%。
Based on one model of reserves adequacy proposed by the International Monetary Fund, China needs a minimum of $1.5 trillion if it bars practically all investment flows in and out of the country. A minimum of $2.7 trillion is needed if China allows money to move in and out of the country freely. The central bank has been gradually tightening the enforcement of its regulations on capital flows.
根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)提出的一個儲備充足性評估模型，如果中國基本上禁止了所有投資流入流出該國，它需要至少1.5萬億美元。如果中國允許資金自由流入和流出該國，則需要至少2.7萬億美元。中國央行已經在逐漸收緊資本流動監管規則的執行。
The level of China’s reserves has become a subject of intense international interest as some large American hedge funds, like Hayman Capital Management in Dallas, have placed big bets in financial markets on a Chinese devaluation in the coming 12 to 18 months. “I’m not someone who hates China,” said J. Kyle Bass, the founder and principal of Hayman Capital, in a telephone interview last week. “What I’m good at is spotting credit bubbles.”
中國的外匯儲備水平已經在國際上引發了強烈興趣，一些大型美國對衝基金，比如達拉斯的海曼資本管理(Hayman Capital Management)，在金融市場下重注賭人民幣在未來12至18個月裏貶值。“我不仇視中國，”海曼資本創始人和總監J·凱爾·巴斯(J. Kyle Bass)上週在接受電話採訪時表示。“我擅長的是察覺信貸泡沫。”
But Chinese officials and many Chinese economists disagree with that gloomy prediction. They contend that official statistics showing limited bank exposure to nonperforming loans are credible, and that bank reserves to handle these loans are ample.
但中國官員和很多中國經濟學家不同意如此悲觀的預測。他們辯駁說，官方統計數據顯示銀行對不良貸款的風險敞口並不大，而這些數據是可信的，銀行也有充足的準備金來應對這些貸款問題。
