數據 中國外儲下降並非資本外逃所致

The unprecedented decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves is being driven more by an unwinding of the renminbi carry trade and Chinese companies paying off dollar debt than by panicked mainlanders desperately seeking ways to get money out of the country.

中國外匯儲備史無前例的下降，更多地是由於人民幣套利交易平倉及中國企業償還美元債務，而不是由於陷入恐慌的中國人絕望地想辦法把資金帶出中國。

That at least is the finding of the Bank for International Settlements, which has analysed financial flows through the global banking system.

至少，這是國際清算銀行(BIS)得出的結論，該機構分析了全球銀行體系的資金流。

The analysis sheds light on the sharp fall in China’s FX reserves, which have declined to $3.2tn from a high of $3.99tn in June 2014, as the first chart shows.

這一分析揭示了中國外匯儲備急劇下降的原因。如圖一所示，中國外匯儲備已從2014年6月3.99萬億美元的高點，滑落至3.2萬億美元。

“It’s not ordinary Chinese freaking out and saying ‘I need to get my money to the US as soon as possible’. That is not happening, they are not dumping domestic assets and fleeing the country,” says Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management.

安石投資管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)研究主管簡•德恩(Jan Dehn)表示：“並沒有出現普通中國人大驚失色地說‘我必須儘快把錢送到美國’的情況。他們並沒有在拋售國內資產並逃離中國。”

Bhanu Baweja, an emerging market strategist at UBS, agrees, saying: “We have argued that in worrying about China’s disappearing FX reserves the street was underestimating the degree to which the decline was being driven by an unwind of the carry trade and a reduction in external debt, both of which are finite.”

瑞銀(UBS)新興市場策略師巴努•巴韋賈(Bhanu Baweja)同意這種說法，他說：“我們曾指出，在擔憂中國正在消失的外匯儲備之時，華爾街低估了套利交易平倉和外債降低所導致的外儲下降規模，而這兩者的數量都是有限的。”

As a result, Mr Baweja argues that “China is not running out of FX reserves after all”.

因此，巴韋賈認爲“最終中國不會耗盡外匯儲備”。

The BIS analysis covered the third quarter of last year, a period during which Chinese FX reserves fell by around $285bn (although some of this will be due to the reduced valuation of reserves denominated in currencies such as the euro and yen, which fell against the dollar during the quarter).

國際清算銀行的分析涵蓋了去年第三季度，中國的外匯儲備在這一時期內下降了大約2850億美元（不過，這其中部分縮水要歸因於以歐元和日元等貨幣計價的外儲估值的下降，這些貨幣在該季度均相對美元下跌）。

It found that net cross-border loans to China fell by $175bn in the quarter, the largest decline on record, as the red line in the left-hand panel of the second chart shows.

該機構發現，如圖二左側小圖的紅線所示，該季度境外銀行對華淨跨境貸款下降了1750億美元，是有記錄以來的最大跌幅。

Some $12bn of this outflow was due to an increase in the level of China’s FX reserves deposited at banks outside the country.

這部分資金外流中，大約120億美元是由於中國存在境外銀行的外儲規模增加導致的。

A total of $80bn, almost half of the remainder, appears to be driven by a reversal of the carry trade. Between 2005 and 2013, the steady appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar, allied to the higher yields available on Chinese bonds and deposits than US ones, encouraged companies and individuals to borrow in dollars and hold renminbi.

而餘下資金外流的近一半——總計800億美元——似乎是由套利交易逆轉造成的。在2005年到2013年期間，人民幣相對於美元的穩定升值（與中國債券和存款的收益率比美國高有關），促使企業和個人借入美元，再換成人民幣資產持有。

The subsequent strengthening of the dollar against the renminbi has prompted many of these speculators to unwind these positions, as the middle panel of the above chart shows.

而之後美元對人民幣走強，促使許多這類投機者對持倉進行平倉，如圖二中間小圖所示。

In response to the resultant diminished demand for renminbi deposits, banks outside China reduced their renminbi deposits with mainland banks by $80bn in Q3 2015, with half of these flows emanating from Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Macau and Singapore.

爲應對由此導致的對離岸人民幣存款需求的下降，2015年第三季度，境外銀行把它們存在中國內地銀行的人民幣存款降低了800億美元，其中一半降幅來自臺灣、香港、韓國、澳門和新加坡。

A further $34bn of outflows stems from mainland Chinese companies paying down cross-border debt, the BIS found, a trend illustrated by the blue line in the left-hand panel above.

國際清算銀行發現，還有340億美元的資金外流源自內地中國企業償還跨境債務，如圖二左側小圖藍線所示。

This trend is also likely to have been prompted by the dollar’s strengthening against the renminbi, which will have made this debt more expensive to service.

此外，這一趨勢還可能是由於美元對人民幣走強導致的，因爲這會提高償債成本。

In addition, Chinese companies reduced their net foreign currency debt to Chinese banks by $7bn in Q3, as shown in the right-hand panel above. Assuming the mainland banks squared their position with banks outside China, this will have contributed to the $175bn of outflows.

此外，如圖二右側小圖所示，第三季度中國企業欠中資銀行的淨外幣債務減少了70億美元。假定中國內地銀行相應結清與境外銀行的頭寸，那麼這對前述1750億美元的資金外流也作出了貢獻。

Mr Dehn, who estimates that Chinese companies had a little over $800bn of foreign currency-denominated debt as of the middle of last year, says “when [companies] saw the two-way volatility in renminbi/dollar they thought ‘do I really want a naked dollar position here?’”, prompting businesses with little or no dollar revenues to start unwinding their FX exposure.

德恩估計，去年年中，中國企業以外幣計價的債務略高於8000億美元。他說：“見到人民幣和美元間的雙向波動時，企業會想：‘我真的想持有美元的裸頭寸麼？’”這種想法促使美元收入很少或沒有美元收入的企業開始結清其外匯敞口。

Together, these factors explained $133bn of the $175bn of outflows apparent in the banking data.

加在一起，這些因素解釋了銀行業數據顯示的1750億美元外流中的1330億美元。

Partial data suggest these trends continued in the fourth quarter of 2015, the BIS says. Flows from the unwinding of the carry trade slowed from $80bn in Q3 to $24bn in Q4, it found.

國際清算銀行稱，部分數據表明2015年第四季度延續了這些趨勢。該行發現，套利交易平倉引起的資金外流從第三季度的800億美元降低至第四季度的240億美元。

However, data from Hong Kong for October and November suggests Chinese companies stepped up the rate at which they paid down their cross-border debt, while the contraction in onshore foreign currency loans accelerated from $7bn to $29bn in Q4, in net terms.

然而，香港10月和11月的數據表明，中國企業加快了償還跨境債務的速度，同時境內淨外幣貸款的下降加快，從第三季度的下降70億美元加快至第4季度的下降290億美元。

“Persistent private capital outflows from China since June 2014 have led to two different narratives. One tells a story of investors selling mainland assets en masse, the other of Chinese firms paying down their dollar debt,” wrote Robert McCauley and Chang Shu of the BIS.

“自2014年6月以來中國持續的私人資本外流引起了兩種不同的說法。一種是投資者正在集體拋售中國內地資產，另一種則是中國企業正在償還它們的美元債務，”國際清算銀行的羅伯特•麥考利(Robert McCauley)和舒暢表示。

“Our analysis favours the second view, but also points to what both narratives miss — the shrinkage of offshore renminbi deposits.”

“我們的分析支持第二種觀點，但也指向了兩種說法都遺漏的一點——離岸人民幣存款的縮水。”

The BIS argues it was the shrinkage of these deposits that has led the offshore renminbi, commonly referred to as CNH, to trade markedly weaker than its onshore cousin, CNY, in recent months.

國際清算銀行主張，近幾個月，正是離岸人民幣存款縮水導致離岸人民幣(CNH)的走勢明顯弱於在岸人民幣(CNY)。

Other analysts paint a broadly similar picture, although differences emerge.

儘管存在分歧，其他分析師也給出了大致相似的分析。

Haibin Zhu, an economist at JPMorgan, estimates that capital outflows from China totalled $870bn in the 18 months to the end of 2015. The largest driver of this, amounting to $620bn, was corporate balance sheet adjustment, he finds.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)經濟學家朱海斌估計，截至2015年底的18個月裏，中國的資本外流總額達到8700億美元。他發現，其中最大的驅動因素是企業資產負債表調整，這導致了6200億美元的外流。

This adjustment, primarily a result of a reduction in foreign currency-denominated loans and trade credit is, to Mr Zhu, largely due to the reversal of the carry trade. As such, he expects this process to slow as the unwinding of this trade runs its course.

在朱海斌看來，這種調整主要是外幣計價貸款和貿易信貸減少的結果，很大程度上是套利交易逆轉引起的。因此，他預計隨着套利交易平倉的推進，這一過程會放緩。

In addition, according to Mr Zhu’s calculations, net portfolio flows were also negative over the 18-month period, to the tune of $16bn, as investment by Chinese entities in foreign stocks and bonds exceeded the flows in the opposite direction.

此外，根據朱海斌的計算，在這18個月的時間裏，投資組合資金流也是淨流出，總額爲160億美元，原因是中國實體對境外股票和債券的投資超過了反向的資金流。

However, this was more than offset by $193bn of net foreign direct investment flows, although this trend has weakened sharply since the middle of 2015, turning negative in the third quarter before a modest rebound to a net reading of +$8bn in Q4.

然而，1930億美元的外國直接投資(FDI)淨流入抵消以上淨流出綽綽有餘。不過這一趨勢自2015年中以後已經嚴重減弱，在第三季度變爲負值，到第四季度則小幅回彈至80億美元的正值。

However, Mr Zhu regards the residual component he needs to balance his spreadsheet as, broadly, representing capital flight from the household sector.

然而，朱海斌認爲，他的分析中剩下的一個因素大體上反映了家庭的資本外逃。

This “hot money” outflow picked up rapidly during the course of 2015, swinging from a net inflow of $12bn in the first quarter to outflows of $17bn in Q2, $106bn in Q3 and $168bn in Q4.

這種“熱錢”流出在2015年迅速提速，第一季度還是熱錢淨流入120億美元，之後就變成第二季度淨流出170億美元、第三季度淨流出1060億美元、第四季度淨流出1680億美元。

Mr Zhu attributes this to a “spike” in expectations of renminbi depreciation since August 2015. As such, he argues that “the key to stabilise capital outflows is to anchor renminbi expectations among Chinese households”.

朱海斌將這歸因於2015年8月以來人民幣貶值預期“急劇上升”。因此，他主張“穩定資本外流的關鍵是穩定中國家庭對人民幣的預期”。

Mr Dehn believes the BIS analysis is positive for China, suggesting that the capital outflows will come to a natural end as the dollar-denominated corporate debt stock is brought down to a more sustainable level, particularly given that China is still generating a sizeable surplus on its current account.

德恩相信，國際清算銀行的分析對中國是積極的，該分析顯示資本外流會隨着企業的美元計價債務存量降低到更可持續的水平而自然結束，尤其是考慮到中國依然在產生規模可觀的經常賬戶盈餘。

Although the BIS only identified $41bn of dollar debt repayment in the third quarter of 2015, Mr Dehn says “it looks like there was an acceleration in debt repayments in Q4. What we are hearing anecdotally is that they were quite substantial.”

儘管國際清算銀行僅確認中國企業2015年第三季度償還了410億美元的美元債務，但德恩表示“看起來債務償還在第四季度有一個加速。我們從坊間聽到的傳言表明它們相當可觀”。

He adds: “We are seeing a similar trend in Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia and they have all said their reserves have started to rise again.”

他補充道：“我們看到泰國、菲律賓和印尼也存在類似的趨勢，而這些國家都表示它們的儲備開始回升。”