不必擔憂日本爆發債務危機

One quadrillion yen. ￥1,000,000,000,000,000. Two hundred and thirty nine per cent of gross domestic product. Simply to state the epic size of Japan’s public debt invokes a frisson of disaster foretold and virtuous warning duly given. A debt so large must surely end in financial catastrophe. Just look at Greece. Argument over. Do something and do it now, you deadbeats.

1000萬億日元，國內生產總值(GDP)的239%。僅僅說出日本公共債務的可怕規模，就會讓人因爲預感到災難而不寒而慄，並好心給出善意的警告。如此龐大的債務肯定會以金融災難告終。看看希臘吧。爭論到此爲止。做點什麼吧，現在就做，你們這些老賴。

Debt paralyses economic debate in Japan, suppressing political differences over tax or spend, and hanging over all efforts to stimulate the economy. Yet despite two decades of warnings about fiscal Armageddon, a debt crisis never arrived. It never even came close, despite shocks on the scale of Lehman Brothers and the Tohoku earthquake. Traders have a name for the bet against Japanese government bonds: “the widow-maker”.

債務讓日本的經濟辯論陷入停滯，壓制了政治上關於稅收或支出的分歧，擱置了所有刺激經濟的努力。然而儘管20年來對“財政末日”的警告不絕於耳，但債務危機從未爆發。甚至日本從沒有接近爆發債務危機，儘管雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)和日本東北部地震帶來那麼大的衝擊。交易員爲做空日本政府債券起了個名字：“寡婦製造者”。

Financial morality tales usually end with a purifying crisis, to cleanse the vice of debt. But it is time to accept that such a crisis may never happen. So far, Japan has provided smoothly for the world’s fastest-ageing population. It is the inchoate and incoherent fears of a debt disaster that have led to serious policy mistakes, such as the 2014 rise in consumption tax that choked off economic recovery.

金融倫理劇往往以一場清理債務之惡的淨化性危機結束。但現在是時候接受此類危機可能永遠不會爆發的觀點了。迄今爲止，日本順利地供養了全球老齡化最快的人口。正是由於對債務危機過早且缺乏邏輯的擔憂，才導致了重大的政策錯誤，比如2014年提高消費稅稅率扼殺了經濟復甦。

There are only four ways a country can resolve a large public debt: growth, repayment, default or inflation. Growth is out. Whatever prime minister Shinzo Abe says, Japan cannot outgrow its liabilities while the population shrinks, no matter how many trade deals it signs or reforms it concludes. Large-scale immigration would change everything, but debt ratios should not decide so fundamental a social choice.

一個國家只有4種解決鉅額公共債務的方法：增長、償還、違約或者通脹。增長沒戲。不管日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)說什麼，日本經濟增速都不可能在人口縮減的同時超過其債務增速，無論它簽署多少貿易協定或者完成多少改革。大規模移民將會改變一切，但債務比率不應該決定如此重大的社會選擇。

Repayment is almost as difficult. It would require a budget surplus over many years despite ever greater spending on healthcare, pensions and national defence. In turn, a surplus requires a corresponding deficit for consumers, companies or foreigners. Given the expectation of higher taxes and uncertain pension provision, Japanese households seem unlikely to run down their savings aggressively.

償還幾乎同樣困難。它將需要多年預算盈餘，即使在醫療、養老保險和國防上的支出日益增長。預算盈餘進而需要消費者、公司或者外國人的相應赤字。鑑於增稅預期和養老保險提供的不確定預期，日本家庭似乎不太可能大幅降低儲蓄。

That makes the two crisis outcomes — default or inflation — seem inevitable. Default, however, makes no sense at all since almost all of Japan’s debt is owned by the central bank and the domestic financial system. If it did not repay, the government would simply have to recapitalise them. It would be defaulting on itself.

這讓兩個危機後果似乎不可避免——違約或者通脹。然而，違約一點兒也不明智，因爲日本幾乎所有的債務都由央行和國內金融體系持有。如果不償還債務，日本政府將不得不進行債務重組。那將是自己對自己違約。

Higher inflation — at or a bit above the 2 per cent inflation target Japan has missed for the past couple of decades — would help, not hurt, by gently eroding debt. Just possibly, in the transition to higher inflation, the Bank of Japan might lose control and let prices take off. But the government has little incentive to pursue an inflation tax. Japan is an asset-owning country full of price-conscious pensioners. There is no quicker route to political suicide than destroying their savings.

通脹上升——達到或略超過日本在過去20年一直未能實現的2%通脹目標——將會有利而非有害於債務問題，因爲會讓債務輕微貶值。有可能，在通脹上升的過程中，日本央行(BoJ)會失去控制，從而導致物價飆升。但日本政府沒有什麼動力追求通脹稅。日本是一個持有資產的國家，盡是對價格在意的養老金領取者。沒有比破壞他們的儲蓄更迅速的政治自殺路線了。

All four routes to resolving the public debt seem improbable. Nor is there any obvious reason, given that Japan is the world’s biggest international creditor, why investor panic and flight from the yen should force it to choose among them.

這4個解決公共債務的方法似乎都不可行。鑑於日本是世界上最大的國際債權國，面對投資者的恐慌和拋售日元，日本也沒有明顯的理由必須在這4個方法當中選擇。

That leaves a more plausible fifth option. Do not resolve the public debt. Live with it. This is surprisingly do-able.

這就只剩下更可行的第五個選項。不去解決公共債務問題，適應它。這令人意外地行得通。

In a forthcoming update to a prescient 2005 paper casting doubt on the likelihood of a debt crisis, Columbia University economist David Weinstein and co-author Mark Greenan find three reasons why Japan has avoided a bond panic: falling interest costs, ruthless control of spending on the elderly and a big rise in taxes.

2005年，哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)經濟學家大衛?韋恩斯坦(David Weinstein)和馬克?格林南(Mark Greenan)合作撰寫了一篇具有預見性的報告，對日本爆發債務危機的可能性表示了懷疑。他們在即將發表的最新版報告中發現了日本得以避免債務恐慌的三個理由：利息成本下降、嚴格控制對老年人的支出以及大幅增稅。

The real interest rate Japan pays on its debt has fallen steadily. With short-term interest rates now negative, the country gets paid to borrow for short periods. The interest bill is even more manageable after factoring in revenues from Japan’s foreign exchange reserves and other public financial assets. As a result, economic stimulus under Mr Abe has finally stabilised Japan’s debt after years of relentless increase. It was 237 per cent of GDP in 2012. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 232 per cent of GDP for 2022.

日本爲其債務支付的實際利率逐步下降。隨着現在短期利率成爲負值，日本短期借款還能獲得報酬。在考慮到日本外匯儲備和其他公共金融資產的收入之後，利息費用甚至更可控。因此，在債務多年急劇增長之後，安倍晉三推出的經濟刺激計劃最終讓日本債務企穩。2012年日本債務是GDP的237%，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計2022年該比率爲232%。

Low interest rates mean the existing debt simply does not matter that much for fiscal sustainability. More importantly, and belying its reputation for wasteful public works, Japan has made a series of tough decisions on healthcare and pension spending. Real per capita outlays on the elderly have fallen. Tax revenues are up by six percentage points of GDP since 2000. “If this approach continues,” write Mr Weinstein and Mr Greenan, “Japan may very well avoid either a financial crisis or a major inflationary episode.”

低利率意味着現有債務對於財政可持續性不那麼重要。更重要的是，儘管有着公共工程浪費的名聲，但日本在醫療和養老金支出方面做了一系列艱難的決定。對老年人的實際人均支出下降。稅收收入與GDP之比自2000年以來上升了6個百分點。韋恩斯坦和格林南寫道：“如果這種做法持續，日本很可能既不會爆發金融危機，也不會出現嚴重通脹。”

Japan cannot afford to splurge. As the baby boom generation reaches old age, it will need to means test benefits and raise more revenue from wealth and consumption taxes. But Japan has shown it can do so. It is time, therefore, to drop the fears of imminent crisis and the demands for instant fiscal tightening. Mr Abe’s policies have stabilised Japan’s debt. It is imperative to keep them going until inflation is high enough to cut interest rates during a recession and the economy is strong enough to run a fiscal surplus during a boom.

日本承擔不起揮霍的代價。隨着嬰兒潮出生的一代人變老，日本將需要調查福利狀況，並增加財富稅和消費稅收入。但日本已經表明自己可以做到這些。因此現在是時候拋掉很快爆發危機的擔憂，以及立即實施財政緊縮的要求。安倍晉三的政策穩定了日本的債務。必須保持這種政策直至通脹高到能夠在經濟低迷期間降息，以及經濟強勁到在繁榮期間出現財政盈餘。

A country with Japan’s demographics will always be close to the edge. With discipline on spending, however, there is no reason to fall off it. The widow-maker has plenty more victims in it yet.

一個擁有日本這樣人口結構的國家將總是處在債務懸崖邊緣。然而，隨着加強支出紀律，它沒有理由跌落懸崖。寡婦製造者還會製造更多的受害者。