企業債務危機惡化 中國經濟管控壓力劇增

HONG KONG — Sainty Marine Corporation started small, buying and selling a few ships in the 1980s. But the state-owned Chinese company went on a debt-fueled binge over the last few years, opening its own shipyards and signing orders worth hundreds of millions of dollars apiece.

香港——舜天船舶股份有限公司一開始是家小公司，在1980年代曾經買賣過一些船隻。但過去幾年，這家中國國有企業依靠貸款大肆擴張，開了幾間造船廠，還簽下幾個價值數億美元的訂單。

Now, heavily indebted companies like Sainty Marine are at the center of the economic troubles in China that have unsettled currency, commodity and stock markets of late.

現在，中國的經濟問題引起了貨幣匯率、大宗商品和股市的波動，而像舜天這樣負債累累的公司，則處在問題的核心。

Sainty Marine just found itself in court, as one of China’s biggest banks asked to dismantle the company to recoup overdue loans. Government regulators are investigating the accuracy of the company’s financial reports, its bank accounts have recently been frozen and its shares have not traded on the Shenzhen stock market since August.

舜天公司剛剛發現自己成了法庭上的被告，中國最大的一家銀行要求法院判處這家公司破產，以便賠償它所欠下的逾期貸款。政府監管者正在調查這家公司財務報告的真實性，其銀行賬戶最近已被凍結，這家深圳上市公司的股票從去年八月開始停止交易。

“It’s pretty dire,” said Matthew Flynn, a Hong Kong shipping consultant.

“情況很糟，”香港船運業諮詢人士馬修·弗林(Matthew Flynn)說。

Shipbuilding is part of a long list of Chinese industries, including steelmaking, coal mining and auto, that borrowed heavily from state-run banks to expand during the good years, helping to propel the country’s three decades of double-digit economic growth. But growth has now slipped to around 7 percent, and many companies are running low on cash.

在經濟行情好的時期，許多行業會從國有銀行大量貸款以支持擴張，造船業只是其一，其他還有鋼鐵製造、採礦和汽車製造等，它們助推中國經濟在過去三十年保持了兩位數增長。但中國經濟增長率現在已經下滑至大約7%，很多企業開始出現資金匱乏的情況。

It is adding to concerns about the direction of the Chinese economy, which has made global investors nervous and weighs on the price of oil. And troubled companies like Sainty Marine are clouding the outlook.

這加重了外界對中國經濟走向所持的各種擔憂，全球投資者緊張不安，由此給石油價格帶來很大壓力。像舜天這樣的企業讓這一前景更加不明朗。

For years, state-owned companies could regularly mark up their prices to help them pay their loans. As customers now pull back and deflationary pressures set in, companies are being forced to cut prices, while facing the same debt payments.

多年來，國有企業一直能持續提高產品價格，助其償還貸款。隨着消費者收緊荷包，通縮壓力顯現，這些企業被迫降低產品價格，但它們揹負的貸款並沒有減少。

The corporate crunch is clouding the government’s efforts to manage the economy. To keep growth from falling off a cliff, authorities are pushing a raft of stimulus measures, like building more high-speed rail lines and encouraging state-owned banks to keep lending.

企業的困境給政府的經濟管控雪上加霜。爲避免經濟增長速度出現劇烈下滑，中國當局正加緊實施一系列刺激措施，比如建造更多高鐵線路，鼓勵國有銀行持續提供貸款。

But ever more borrowing leaves China vulnerable, as company blowups add to the pressures. Last year, total debts of all sorts in China — household, corporate and government — increased by an amount equal to 12 percent of the entire country’s economy. Overall lending expanded in December at the fastest pace since June, figures released by the central bank on Friday show.

但隨着企業破產給中國帶來更多壓力，貸款持續增多隻會讓中國經濟愈發脆弱。去年，中國各類債務——家庭、企業和政府債務——增長的總額，相當於中國經濟總量的12%。中央銀行週五發佈的數據顯示，總體貸款額度在去年12月大幅增長，增速達到去年6月以來的最高水平。

Companies in industrial sectors, which accounted for the bulk of borrowing, are navigating a treacherous environment.

借貸大部分銀行貸款的工業企業，正在進入一個十分危險的環境。

Low or falling prices mean that companies need to sharply increase their sales volume every year to have enough revenue to cover their debt payments. But increasing sales is hard in a slowing economy.

產品價格低，或不斷下降，意味着企業需要每年大幅增加銷售額纔能有足夠的收入償還貸款。但在經濟增長放緩的時候，企業實現銷售增長比較難。

China is not the only country with falling producer prices. They are also down in the United States from a year ago amid weak prices for oil and other commodities.

中國不是唯一一個生產價格下降的國家。由於石油和其他大宗商品價格疲軟，美國的生產價格也從一年前開始下降。

What makes China unusual is that companies are coping with sharply rising labor costs. Blue-collar wages are up nearly 10 percent a year, as the work force ages and more young people prefer white-collar jobs. Overinvestment in many sectors is also resulting in too many factories and other businesses chasing the same limited sales.

中國特別的地方在於，它還要應對勞動力成本急劇上升的問題。隨着勞動力年齡增大，以及更多的年輕人傾向於找白領工作，藍領工人的工資一年要增長將近10%。很多行業出現過度投資，也導致有太多工廠和其他企業在爭奪有限的生意。

“The combination of rising staff costs and lower prices is a real challenge,” said Sabine Bauer, a senior director for financial institutions in the Hong Kong office of Fitch Ratings.

“勞動力成本上升，產品價格下降，這兩項加在一起是個不小的挑戰，”惠譽金融機構香港辦公室高級董事鮑冰娜(Sabine Bauer)說。

Shipbuilders like Sainty Marine illustrate the litany of problems.

從舜天等造船企業的情況可以看出這些問題的嚴重程度。

Up and down the Chinese coastline, in harbors and along coastal rivers, companies bought big plots of land, purchased cranes, and hired large numbers of welders. China expanded from one-fifth of global shipbuilding capacity in 2008 to two-fifths by last year.

中國的海岸線沿岸各個港口和沿海諸河兩岸，都有不少企業買下大塊土地，購買起重機，聘用大量焊工進行建設。中國的造船產能在全球所佔比例從2008年的五分之一，增長到去年的五分之二。

Quality control was a problem from the start. “In China, building what are supposed to be two identical ships in two adjacent slips, you get two different vessels,” said Basil Karatzas, a Manhattan ship broker. “In Japan, they can build 10 ships and they are all the same.”

質量控制從一開始就是個問題。“接連製造出來的兩艘船原本應該一模一樣，但在中國就是兩艘不同的船，”曼哈頓船舶經紀人巴茲爾·卡拉察斯(Basil Karatzas)說。“在日本，他們連着造十船，也是一樣的。”

With many Chinese shipyards dogged by complaints, competition was fierce. Japanese and South Korean shipyards demanded 20 percent down payments for orders, plus a guarantee from an international bank to pay the rest of the cost if the buyer defaulted. Although Chinese shipyards demanded the same deposits, they did not require the guarantees, and accepted orders from what were effectively shell companies with weak finances.

儘管不少中國造船廠都遭到很多這樣的投訴，但這個行業競爭非常激烈。日本和韓國造船廠要求買家爲訂單支付20%的定金，另外還要有一家國際銀行爲其擔保，如果買家違約，將由銀行負責支付剩餘款項。儘管中國造船上也要求同樣買家預付同樣比例的定金，但他們不要求國際銀行擔保，會接受那些財務狀況並不穩固、實際上是空殼公司的企業所下的訂單。

That put Chinese shipyards at risk.

這讓中國造船廠處在非常危險的境地。

If ship prices fell sharply, buyers could forfeit their deposits and not pay for the rest of the vessel, leaving the shipyard stuck with the project. As global demand for commodities withered in the last two years, ship prices dropped more than 20 percent — and in some cases, more.

如果船隻價格劇降，買家可以放棄定金，不再支付剩餘船隻費用，讓造船廠自己解決這個爛攤子。因爲全球大宗商品需求在過去兩年有所萎縮，船隻價格下降了逾20%——有些情況下降幅要更大。

For the 58,000-ton bulk freighters that Chinese shipyards were churning out, prices have plunged from nearly $30 million in 2013 to just $16 million now. Buyers who bought at the high end chose to forfeit their deposits instead of paying for finished vessels worth less.

中國造船廠大量生產的5.8萬噸散貨船，價格已經從2013年的3000萬美元降至現在的1600萬美元。這種情況下，在價格比較高的時期下單的買家會放棄定金，而不是全款買下已經貶值的完工船隻。

Chinese shipyards are now littered with half-finished shells, like immense steel earthworms cut in two. Many shipyards lack the money to complete vessels and sell them at a discount that might allow them to recover some costs.

在中國造船廠隨處可見造了一半的船體，看起來就像被切成兩半的鋼鐵蚯蚓。很多造船廠沒有資金完成船隻的建造，以便將其折價賣給別的賣家，那樣或許還能讓它們拿回一些成本。

Even strong buyers are balking at completing deals. Sainty Marine has four finished vessels that were rejected by Precious Shipping of Bangkok. Precious Shipping backed away, in a dispute over the quality that has triggered an arbitration case in London.

即便是實力比較強的買家也無法完成交易。舜天有四艘完工船隻，都被曼谷的珍寶航運公司拒收。之前交付的一艘船也因質量爭端被要求退回，在倫敦引發了一起仲裁案件。

The Bank of China, one of the country’s biggest commercial banks, pushed Sainty Marine into court on Tuesday in the shipyard’s hometown Nanjing, in Jiangsu Province. The bank requested the appointment of a liquidator, as Sainty Marine is already overdue on $81 million in loans.

週二，中國最大的商業銀行之一中國銀行將舜天公司告上法庭，地點是該造船公司創始地江蘇省。中國銀行要求對該公司進行清算，因爲它的違約貸款已經達到8100萬美元。

A Sainty Marine official who gave only her family name, Ma, said that the court had held hearings this week, but added that she was not aware of any decisions. The bank and the court had no comment.

舜天公司一位馬姓高級職員表示，法院本週舉行了幾場聽證會，但她同時表示，據她所知法院尚未做出任何裁決。中國銀行和法院都沒有對此事置評。

It is rare for state-owned banks to pursue debts so aggressively.

國有銀行如此積極地索償債務，在中國非常少見。

Authorities periodically send signals about shutting down such zombie companies. “Zombie enterprises are not new, but as the economy feels downward pressure, their seriousness and danger becomes evident,” People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s main newspaper, recently said..

中國當局不時發出關閉此類殭屍企業的信號。“殭屍企業並非新生事物，隨着經濟下行壓力加大，其嚴重性和危害性日益凸顯，”中國主要的黨報《人民日報》最近表示。

But banks usually keep rolling over debts and lending more, particularly for state-owned companies like Sainty Marine, where the controlling shareholder is Jiangsu province. The government has been hesitant to completely shut down companies, over fears that large-scale layoffs might lead to protests.

不過，銀行往往繼續讓貸款展期並提供更多貸款，尤其是對舜天這樣的國有企業。該公司控股股東是江蘇省政府。對於完全關閉這些公司，政府一直很猶豫，因爲擔心大規模下崗可能會引發抗議活動。

The shipbuilding industry, though, is in complete disarray, with dozens of Chinese companies lacking any orders. The government, which has halted export credits for the sector, seems determined to force some closings.

然而，造船業正處於徹底的混亂之中，有幾十家公司沒有任何訂單。政府下令停止給該行業提供出口信貸，似乎已經下定決心要強制關停一些企業。

In other circumstances, a weaker currency might offer relief.

若非如此，人民幣貶值或許本可以讓情況有所緩和。

When the currency drops, it makes imported goods more expensive. That helps stave off deflationary pressures that hurt companies’ ability to raise prices. It also makes labor costs look lower in dollar terms, which in turn can help attract overseas investment.

人民幣匯率下降，會使進口商品價格上漲。這有助於減輕會損害企業提高產品價格能力的通縮壓力。它也使中國勞動力價格在換算成美元后顯得比較低，有助於吸引海外投資。

Those dynamics are a big reason the Chinese government has been letting the renminbi fall.

這些因素是中國政府近期一直在讓人民幣貶值的一個重要原因。

But the currency is also challenging.

但貨幣問題也頗具挑戰性。

A weaker renminbi could further dampen Chinese demand for imported commodities, which are typically priced in dollars. As Chinese appetite wanes, freight stagnates and shipping companies have even less need for new vessels.

人民幣走低可能會進一步遏制中國對通常以美元定價的進口商品的需求。隨着中國需求的減少，貨運業停滯不前，船運公司對新船隻的需求會變得更少。

It’s a disastrous situation for Sainty Marine. “Even for what’s in the order books,” said Mr. Flynn, the shipping consultant, “people don’t want to take delivery of the vessels.”

對舜天這樣的企業而言，這種狀況是災難性的。“即便是已經簽下訂單，”船運業諮詢人士弗林說，“買家現在也不想收貨。”