中國銀行業將爲煤企鋼企債務重組買單

China’s banks are set to be the biggest losers in the sweeping bailouts of the country’s steel and coal industries.

中國的銀行將成爲對國內鋼鐵、煤炭行業全面紓困的最大犧牲品。

Local governments hoping to save their steel mills and coal miners have announced a series of restructuring plans, enlisting the banks to take the hit by improving the terms of the loans or swapping them for bonds or equity in the struggling groups.

希望挽救本地鋼廠、煤礦的中國地方政府已經宣佈了一系列重組計劃，擬向這些苦苦掙扎的集團提供更優惠的貸款條件，或將貸款轉換成債券或股權，讓銀行來承擔後果。

The reliance on the banking system to shoulder the burden comes at an inopportune moment, with China’s banks already mired in bad debt — about Rmb15tn ($2.25tn), or 19 per cent of total commercial lending by some accounts.

現在依靠銀行系統負起這一重擔並不是時候，因爲中國的銀行早已深陷壞賬泥潭——根據一些計算，壞賬約爲15萬億元人民幣（合2.25萬億美元），即商業貸款總額的19%。

Profit growth at the banks has also fallen over the past two years and could deteriorate further as many of the country’s largest industrial players renege on loans for better state-brokered deals.

過去兩年，銀行的利潤增速也有所下滑，而且可能進一步惡化，因爲中國許多大型工業企業都出現了貸款違約，以期由政府出面斡旋達成條件更優的交易。

With the finances of local governments being weak, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been ordering Chinese banks to ‘rescue’ these companies, and we believe that banks are likely to suffer from the government’s plans, said Chua Han Teng, a senior analyst at Fitch Group’s BMI Research.

惠譽(Fitch)旗下研究機構BMI Research的高級分析師Chua Han Teng表示：鑑於地方政府脆弱的財政狀況，中國銀監會一直在要求中國的銀行‘救助’這些企業，而我們認爲，政府的計劃很可能讓銀行遭受巨大損失。

Not only do banks have to restructure the debt at the discretion of the government, these banks also purchase the bonds issued by these poor performing companies.

銀行不僅不得不根據政府的意志重組債務，還得購買這些業績不佳的公司發行的債券。

China’s State Council outlined in February that it would cut 500m tonnes of annual coal output over the next three to five years and 100m-150m tonnes of steel output over the next five years.

今年2月，中國國務院提出，在未來3至5年削減煤炭產能5億噸，並在未來5年削減1億至1.5億噸的鋼產能。

Progress, however, has been stunted.

然而，這一進程受到了阻礙。

Two of the country’s top industry regulators said recently that steel mills had hit just 47 per cent of the cutback target for the year by the end of July, while coal miners had achieved only 38 per cent.

中國兩家最高工業監管機構最近表示，截至7月底，鋼廠只實現了今年削減產能目標的47%，而煤礦減產只實現了38%。

The cutbacks to production have led to a series of government-brokered bailouts.

產能削減已經使得各地政府紛紛出面斡旋紓困計劃。

In the biggest restructuring deal to surface since the global financial crisis, Bohai Steel is reported to be in talks with local government on restructuring $29bn in bank and trust loans.

渤海鋼鐵集團(Bohai Steel)據報道正在與當地政府就重組其290億美元的銀行和信託貸款進行商談，這是自全球金融危機以來最大的一筆重組協議。

The municipal government of Tianjin will establish a fund to help work out the debt to 105 creditors, according to Caixin, the financial magazine.

據財經媒體財新網(Caixin)報道，天津市政府將設立一個基金，幫助解決涉及105家債權人的債務問題。

I suspect there will be a haircut on the debt and also a debt-for-equity swap, Christopher Lee, an analyst at S&P Global, said on the Bohai restructuring plan, although he noted that few details were yet available.

針對渤鋼的債務重組計劃，標普全球(S&P Global)分析師李國宜(Christopher Lee)說：我猜測可能會對債務進行減記，也會進行債轉股。不過他指出，很多細節還不得而知。

There’s no way for the banks to not take a hit here.

在這一點上，銀行不可能不受到衝擊。

There’s no going back to the good old days when growth was 8-10 per cent.

再也回不到過去保持8%至10%利潤增速的好日子了。

The contentious debt-for-equity programme announced earlier this year, in which banks will be asked to swap debt in exchange for equity in ailing companies, would help the banks remove bad debt from their loan books in the near term, Mr Lee noted.

李國宜表示，今年早些時候宣佈的引發爭議的債轉股計劃——銀行將被要求把債權轉換成境況不佳的公司的股權——將有助於銀行在短期內消除賬上的不良貸款。

But the plan would only prolong the recognition of toxic assets and eventually surface at banks when the companies in which they hold equity began to falter, he said.

但該計劃只會延緩對有毒資產的確認，當銀行持有股權的公司開始崩潰時，這些有毒資產最終將在銀行浮出水面，他說。

Bohai Steel was just one example of how a local government was calling on its lenders to avoid the collapse of a state-owned industrial group.

渤鋼只是地方政府要求銀行防止國有工業集團倒閉的實例之一。

Earlier this month, the government of Shanxi, China’s most coal-dependent province, said it planned to extend the maturity on as much as Rmb400bn in loans to the region’s seven biggest coal groups.

本月早些時候，經濟極其依賴煤炭的山西省的政府表示，計劃展期該省七大煤炭集團高達4000億元人民幣的貸款。

Distress in the coal sector in Shanxi was set to take a heavy toll on the province’s economy.

山西煤炭行業的慘狀將令該省經濟遭受重創。

At the end of last year, Shanxi’s seven largest coal groups had Rmb1.18tn in debt, almost matching the province’s Rmb1.28tn gross domestic product in 2015, according to analysts at Everbright Securities.

光大證券(Everbright Securities)分析師表示，截至去年底，山西七家最大的煤炭集團已經負債1.18萬億元人民幣，幾乎與該省2015年1.28萬億元人民幣的GDP相當。

Baosteel Group and Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, China second and sixth-largest steelmakers, announced in June that they were partnering on a restructuring plan.

今年6月，中國第二與第六大鋼鐵企業——寶鋼集團(Baosteel Group)、武漢鋼鐵集團(Wuhan Iron & Steel Group)——宣佈正在合作籌劃重組計劃。

The following month, three big coal groups including the world’s largest coal producer, Shenhua Group, set up a joint coal asset management company to help consolidate state-owned coal resources.

次月，包括世界最大煤炭企業神華集團(Shenhua Group)在內的三家中國大型煤炭集團成立了一家聯合煤炭資產管理公司，以幫助整合國有煤炭資源。