德銀領導層換血以及匯豐全面重組 單調銀行業捲土重來

Do the almost simultaneous announcements this month of a new regime at Deutsche Bank, and an extensive restructuring at HSBC, symbolise a fundamental change in the structure of financial companies?

本月幾乎同時宣佈的德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank，見上圖)領導層換血以及匯豐(HSBC)全面重組，將代表金融公司結構的根本性變化嗎？

The last two decades of the 20th century saw the rise of integrated financial conglomerates. In Britain, the trigger was the Big Bang in 1986. In the US, the separation of investment and commercial banking imposed in the 1930s by the Glass-Steagall Act was steadily eroded. The universal banks of continental Europe, seeing these trends, reinvented themselves along Anglo-Saxon lines.

20世紀最後20年見證了綜合性金融集團的崛起。在英國，導火索是1986年發生的“金融大爆炸”(Big Bang)。在美國，《格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案》(Glass-Steagall Act)上世紀30年代規定的投資銀行與商業銀行業務分業經營被逐步破壞。看到這些趨勢的歐洲大陸的全能型銀行，也沿着盎格魯-撒克遜道路對自身進行了徹底改造。

In Britain, the very large financial resources of retail banks meant that they were initially dominant operators, absorbing the partnerships that had dominated stockbroking, market making and investment banking. Few of these acquisitions worked out well. Stockbrokers, jobbers and corporate dealmakers did not much enjoy the culture of the retail bank. Many former partners in these firms, made very wealthy through the sale of their businesses, preferred to spend more time with their families. The revenue earners below, deprived of the opportunity to enjoy the icing on the cake, were unhappily nicknamed the “marzipan layer”.

在英國，零售銀行龐大的金融資源意味着它們一開始就成爲主導經營者，吸收那些曾經主導股票經紀、做市和投行業務的合作伙伴。但這些收購很少有成功的。股票經紀商、股票自營商和企業交易撮合者並不喜歡零售銀行的文化。這些公司之前的很多合夥人通過出售自己的業務變得很富有，他們更喜歡多花時間陪伴家人。而他們以下那些被剝奪分享額外收益機會的收入人羣，不幸地被稱爲“杏仁軟糖層”（指企業最高管理層之下的那個管理層級——譯者注）。

Despite these initial failures, dealmaking continued apace. In 1998–9 Sandy Weill created Citigroup, largest of all financial conglomerates. Mr Weill led the charge to secure the final repeal of Glass-Steagall, and ejected his co-chief executive John Reed, a career retail banker in traditional mould.

雖然最初遭遇失敗，但併購交易持續加速。1998至1999年期間，桑迪•威爾(Sandy Weill)創建了所有金融集團中規模最大的花旗集團(Citigroup)。在威爾帶頭的攻勢下，《格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案》最終被廢除，他還趕走了花旗聯合首席執行官約翰•裏德(John Reed)，後者是一位堅持傳統的職業零售銀行家。

The balance of power within financial conglomerates had changed. Deal­makers, greedier and smarter, took control. In investment banks the traders, rather than the corporate suits, were in charge. Trading was believed to be the major source of profits, and power followed. The fears of the marzipan layer were dispelled by the large bonuses they received as part of these big corporate organisations. But Mr Weill’s triumph was the crest of the wave. Reputational issues began to dog his creation.

金融集團內部的權力平衡已經發生變化。更貪婪、更精明的交易撮合者獲得控制權。在投行，交易員（而非高級管理人員）說了算。交易被認爲是主要的利潤來源，其次纔是權力。“杏仁軟糖層”的憂慮被他們收到的鉅額獎金所驅散，獎金是這些大企業組織的一部分。但威爾的勝利是這一切的頂峯。聲譽問題隨後開始困擾他創建的花旗集團。

The culture of retail banking — intrinsically bureaucratic, perhaps boring, driven by the routinisation needed to allow the accurate completion of millions of transactions every day — was incompatible with the entrepreneurial, buccaneering environment of the investment bank. The association provided opportunities for cross-selling. Informational advantages were derived from engaging in multiple roles. But the main logic was financial: the cross subsidy made possible by a passive deposit base guaranteed by the taxpayer.

零售銀行業的文化本質上有着官僚作風，或許還有點單調，受保證每日數百萬筆交易精確完成所必需的程序化所驅使，這與投行冒險、投機的氛圍格格不入。它們的結合提供了交叉銷售的機會。同時從事多種業務帶來信息上的優勢。但混業的主要理由是財務上的：由納稅人擔保的無息存款基礎使交叉補貼成爲可能。

While these apparent synergies might yield private advantage for banks, this was offset — generally more than offset — by the costs to customers and taxpayers. This downside would be­come all too apparent as mis-selling and conflicts of interest were exposed, and taxpayer support was demanded. Within a decade Citigroup had to be bailed out.

雖然這些表面上的協同效應可能爲銀行帶來祕密優勢，但這被對消費者和納稅人造成的損失所抵消（通常不止抵消）。這種負面效應會隨着不當銷售和利益衝突的暴露而變得十分明顯，隨後就會需要納稅人的支持。不到10年，花旗就不得不接受紓困。

But there was little immediate change. When the music stopped for Chuck Prince at Citigroup, investment banker Vikram Pandit took his place. The elevation of Bob Diamond to the chief executive slot at Barclays and of Anshu Jain to the same position at Deutsche Bank was yet to come.

但變化沒有立即發生。當音樂不再爲花旗前首席執行官查克•普林斯(Chuck Prince)奏響，投資銀行家潘偉迪(Vikram Pandit)接替了他的位置。再後來，鮑勃•戴蒙德(Bob Diamond)與安舒•賈恩(Anshu Jain)分別被提升爲巴克萊(Barclays)與德銀的首席執行官。

And yet, seven years later, it seems that change may be beginning. The respected central banker, Axel Weber, went to UBS to slim down its investment banking activities. When Mr Diamond was fired from Barclays, and Mr Pandit from Citigroup, they were replaced by institutional lifers with experience of traditional banking. Now Mr Jain has lost his post at Deutsche Bank. HSBC has told shareholders that, ahead of government-imposed ring fencing of its UK retail banking operations, it will rebrand these activities; it may not be long before they are hived off.

然而，7年後，變化似乎正在開始發生。受人尊敬的德國央行(Bundesbank)前行長埃克塞爾•韋伯(Axel Weber)來到瑞銀，爲其投行業務瘦身。當戴蒙德和潘偉迪分別被巴克萊和花旗解僱後，他們被擁有傳統銀行業經驗的恪守制度的專業人士所取代。如今，賈恩已不再擔任德銀首席執行官。匯豐銀行告訴股東，在政府對其英國零售銀行業務實施圈護之前，將重塑這些業務；它們可能不久就會被分離出來。

Perhaps, not before time, boring banking is starting to make a comeback.

也許用不了多久，單調的銀行業務就會捲土重來。