世界銀行下調全球增長預期

The World Bank has cut its forecast for global growth, warning that the world economy remained overly reliant on the “single engine” of the US recovery.

世界銀行(WB)降低了對全球經濟增長的預期，並警告說全球經濟依然過度依賴美國復甦這“唯一一臺引擎”。

The Bank said it expected lower oil prices to provide a boost to global activity. But it warned several headwinds would mitigate the effect of the falling cost of crude. These include weak confidence among consumers and businesses and the inability of big central banks to cut interest rates below their record-low levels to boost inflation expectations.

該行表示，預計油價的降低會對全球經濟活動起到促進作用。不過，該行警告說，幾大不利因素會抵消原油價格下跌的影響。這些不利因素包括消費者和企業信心不足，以及各大央行無法通過將利率降至創紀錄低點提升通脹預期。

“The global economy is running on a single engine,” said Kaushik Basu, chief economist at the World Bank. “It is only the US economy that is forging ahead in a global economy with so much uncertainty. We need several engines,” he added.

世行首席經濟學家考希克•巴蘇(Kaushik Basu)表示：“全球經濟正靠着唯一一臺引擎運轉。目前，在全球經濟不確定因素衆多的情況下，只有美國經濟一枝獨秀。我們需要更多的引擎。”

In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank forecasts the world economy will expand by 3 per cent this year and by 3.3 per cent in 2016. In June the Bank’s economists had predicted global growth this year and next to be 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

在半年發佈一次的《全球經濟展望》(Global Economic Prospects)中，世界銀行預計今年全球經濟將增長3%，而2016年則會增長3.3%。去年6月，該行經濟學家曾預計，今明兩年全球經濟增長率將分別是3.4%和3.5%。

The Bank lifted its forecasts for growth in the US this year from 3 per cent to 3.2 per cent, while slashing those for the eurozone from 1.8 per cent to 1.1 per cent. The UK is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2015.

該行將美國今年的增長率預期從3%提升至3.2%。同時，該行將歐元區的增長率預期從1.8%降至1.1%。2015年，該行預計英國將增長2.9%。

Middle-income countries were hit by a raft of downgrades, with Russia now expected to contract by 2.9 per cent instead of growing by 1.5 per cent. South Asia provided a rare bright spot, with forecasts for 2015 lifted by 0.2 percentage points to 6.1 per cent.

中等收入國家則有許多遭遇了向下修正。俄羅斯預計會收縮2.9%，而不是增長1.5%。相比之下，南亞是少見的亮點，2015年的增長預期向上修正了0.2個百分點，達到6.1%。

The Washington-based institution said it expected the 60 per cent drop in the cost of crude since June to lift growth by around 0.5 per cent over the medium run. But the Bank struck a downbeat tone on the prospects for the world economy. “Risks to this slow-moving global recovery are significant and tilted to the downside,” the report said.

自2014年6月以來，原油價格已暴跌60%。對於油價的影響，世行表示，該行預計從中期來說油價的暴跌會將增長率推高大約0.5%。不過，該行在對全球經濟的展望中卻持一種較悲觀的論調。該報告表示：“這種節奏遲緩的全球復甦風險很大，很容易滑向下行區間。”

The most significant threat to the recovery listed by the Bank is the normalisation of monetary policy in the US. Last week, minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates from 0-0.25 per cent as soon as April. The Bank fears this could lead to a sudden tightening of financial conditions for governments and corporates in emerging markets, which have enjoyed low borrowing costs.

在該行列出的全球復甦威脅中，影響最大的是美國貨幣政策的正常化。上週，聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)12月份會議的會議記錄顯示，美聯儲(Fed)最早可能會在今年4月把利率從0%到0.25%的水平提升上來。該行擔心，此舉或將導致新興市場政府和企業的融資環境突然趨於緊張。此前，它們一直享受着十分低廉的借貸成本。

However, the Bank does not expect a repeat of the turmoil that hit developing countries in the summer of 2013, when the Fed first revealed it might pull back from its programme of quantitative easing. “The adjustment in developing countries to financial tightening is expected to proceed more smoothly,” the report said.

不過，世行預計2013年曾衝擊發展中國家的動盪局面不會再次出現。當時，美聯儲曾首次披露可能會退出量化寬鬆計劃的消息。這份報告表示：“預計發展中國家能夠更爲平緩地應對融資狀況收緊。”

Mr Basu said he did not think monetary tightening in the US would force central banks in emerging markets into sudden interest rates hikes. “Central banks in emerging markets will have to react but the reaction will not have to be any more muscular than one-and-a-half year ago,” he explained.

巴蘇表示，他認爲美國貨幣政策收緊並不會迫使新興市場的央行突然提高利率。他解釋說：“新興市場央行將不得不應對這一局面。不過，他們的迴應不一定會比一年半以前更強硬。”

Last October, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecasts for global growth, saying the world economy would expand by 3.3 per cent in 2015 instead of 3.4 per cent. The IMF’s latest batch of economic forecasts will be released next week in an update to its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook.

去年10月，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)曾降低對全球經濟增長的預期，表示2015年全球經濟將增長3.3%，而不是3.4%。下週，IMF將發佈半年發佈一次的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)，屆時該組織將公佈對經濟的最新預測。