房地產市場放緩 投資者大舉進場

A slowdown in China's real-estate market and tightening credit has cast plenty of downbeat sentiment toward the country's property developers. But financial investors and firms--foreign and domestic alike--continue to buy up stakes both in residential and commercial properties.

中國房地產市場的放緩以及信貸趨緊令房地產開發商愁眉不展。不過財務投資者和機構（無論是來自國內還是國外）仍在大舉買進住宅和商業房地產股份。

Investors remain bullish on a high-growth economy that still bests many other regions of the world. In particular, they appear willing to bet on large property names that aren't burdened by heavy debt loads, and businesses that piggyback off the brick-and-mortar needs of China's booming e-commerce industry.

投資者仍看好中國經濟。中國經濟的增速仍比全球其他許多地區要高。他們似乎特別願意押注沒有揹負鉅額負債的大型房企以及爲中國蓬勃發展的電子商務公司提供實體設施的行業。

In fact, mergers and acquisitions of Chinese real-estate firms hit $22.2 billion year-to-date, the highest on record, according to Dealogic. At the same time last year, such deals in the real-estate sector reached $6.8 billion.

據Dealogic的數據，今年迄今中國房地產行業的併購活動規模達222億美元，創紀錄新高。上年同期爲68億美元。

Meanwhile, Chinese housing prices are growing at a slower pace, plagued by oversupply, particularly in second- and third-tier cities, say analysts. Housing inventories rose in March compared with February in 43 cities tracked by the China Real Estate Index System, which includes Beijing, Shanghai Guangzhou and Qingdao.

相關報道中國樓市增長放緩 市場各方憂心忡忡中國房地產開發商狀況嚇壞債市投資者有關中國樓市供應過剩的問與答中國住房市場風光不再中國樓市恐難現昔日繁榮分析師們稱，受供應過剩影響，中國房價漲勢放緩，尤其是二、三線城市。中國房地產指數系統(China Real Estate Index System)公佈的數據顯示，3月份住房存量較2月份增加。該指數追蹤北京、上海、廣州、青島等43個城市的樓市。

But investment in the sector continues. Attractive plays include low-debt blue chips, say investors.

但對房地產行業的投資仍在繼續。投資者稱，吸引他們的房企包括低負債的藍籌公司。

Big property firms like China Vanke Co. Ltd., the country's largest property developer, have low debt-to-equity ratios that put them in a better position than smaller peers to weather a broader economic slowdown and credit tightening, says Leo Yuncheng Gao, a portfolio manager at Singapore-based APS Asset Management.

總部位於新加坡的APS Asset Management的投資組合經理Leo Yuncheng Gao說，像萬科企業股份有限公司(China Vanke Co.)這樣的大型房企債務股本比較低，所以相比中小房企，它們更經得起經濟增長放緩以及信貸吃緊的衝擊。萬科是中國最大的房地產開發商。

In recent weeks, APS doubled down on its stake China Vanke and continues to hold Poly Real Estate Group Co. Ltd., China's fifth-largest property firm by sales. Mainland shares of both developers are up more than 17% from their lows this year.

最近幾周APS加倍增持萬科股票，而且繼續持有以銷售額計中國第五大地產公司保利地產(Poly Real Estate Group Co. Ltd.)的股票。上述兩隻中資地產股已較年內低點回升了17%以上。

Cheap valuations are one reason for such buying, says Mr. Gao. Price-to-earnings multiples of property firms trading on the mainland stock market have been declining since 2007, according to Chinese data provider Wind Info, falling to an average of less than 12 times earnings in the last quarter of 2013, from a record 97.9 times in the third quarter of 2007.

Leo Yuncheng Gao說，地產股估值低是促成APS這類買盤的原因之一。據中國信息提供商Wind資訊(Wind Info)，自2007年以來大陸股市地產股的市盈率一直在下滑，平均市盈率由2007年第三季度創紀錄的97.9倍降至2013年第四季度的不足12倍。

The long-term trend toward urbanization will 'continue to drive demand for prized mainland assets,' says Tony Hsu, portfolio manager at hedge fund Dalton Investments, which holds 'a number of' Hong Kong-listed property developers that 'trade at a significant discount to net asset value.'

對衝基金Dalton Investments的投資組合經理Tony Hsu說，城市化的長期趨勢將繼續推動對高價中國大陸資產的需求。這家對衝基金持有多家香港上市的地產開發商股票，這些股票的價格都較其每股資產淨值有很大折讓。

Warehouse properties also continue to prove attractive investments, as operators have benefited from the needs of e-commerce companies to get the products they sell to customers' homes.

倉儲地產也繼續受到投資者追捧，電子商務公司爲了將所售產品發送到顧客家中，對倉庫設施有巨大需求，這令倉庫運營商受益。

Last week, private-equity firm RRJ Capital and a unit of Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings agreed to invest $250 million in one of China's largest warehouse developers, Shanghai Yupei Group.

上週，私募股權投資公司RRJ Capital和新加坡國有投資公司淡馬錫控股(Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.)的子公司同意向中國最大的倉儲物業開發商之一上海宇培集團(Shanghai Yupei Group)投資2.5億美元。

In February, a group of Chinese investors, including Bank of China Group Investment Ltd. and private-equity firm Hopu Funds, invested $2.5 billion in Singapore's Global Logistic Properties, including on its mainland unit.

2月份時，包括中銀集團投資有限公司(Bank of China Group Investment Ltd.)和私募股權投資公司厚 基金(Hopu Funds)在內的中資財團對新加坡的普洛斯(Global Logistic Properties)（包括其中國子公司）投資25億美元。

A deal by a major Chinese e-commerce player to establish a brick-and-mortar presence likewise is spurring predictions that similar deals will follow.

一家中國大型電子商務公司入股實體零售業的交易同樣也引發了外界對其他公司將達成類似交易的預期。

Earlier this month, Chinese Internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. plowed $692 million into shares of Intime Retail (Group) Co., a local department-store operator listed in Hong Kong. The deal is expected to help Alibaba apply its online services, including mobile-payment processing and advertising, in a physical shopping space.

本月早些時候，中國互聯網巨頭阿里巴巴集團(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.)斥資6.92億美元入股在香港上市的中國百貨商店運營商銀泰百貨（集團）有限公司(Intime Retail (Group) Co., 簡稱：銀泰百貨)。預計該交易將幫助阿里巴巴將包括移動支付處理系統和廣告在內的在線服務應用於實體零售店。

More recently, on April 9, Gaw Capital Partners bought a mixed-use development in Beijing's Sanlitun shopping area for $928 million. The private-equity firm bought Pacific Century Place from a property unit run by Richard Li, the son of Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, who has carried out a number of real-estate disposals on the mainland starting last year.

4月9日，基匯資本(Gaw Capital Partners)斥資9.28億美元購入了北京三里屯購物中心一處多用途物業。這傢俬募股權投資公司從香港大亨李嘉誠之子李澤楷(Richard Li)運營的一家房地產子公司手中收購了北京盈科中心(Pacific Century Place)的權益。李嘉誠從去年開始處置了其在大陸的一批房地產。

Investors do appear more cautious on smaller property developers, which analysts say may be more prone to the kind of funding problems that hurt Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. Xingrun, whose projects are largely in the eastern city of Fenghua. The firm had trouble selling apartments to pay down debt, putting it on the brink of bankruptcy.

投資者對中小房地產開發商的態度確實變得更加謹慎。分析師表示，中小房地產開發商更容易出現重創浙江興潤置業投資有限公司(Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co., 簡稱：興潤置業)的融資問題。興潤置業的項目大多集中在東部城市奉化。該公司難以賣出房子、償付債務，導致其處於破產邊緣。

Still, smaller, well-run property developers have attracted some interest.

不過，經營情況良好的中小房地產開發商還是吸引了投資者的一些興趣。

Private-equity firm Forum Partners, for example, says it is continuing to bet on small to medium-size property developers, because such firms can't get loans from banks as easily as large developers. This gives private capital a chance. 'We've seen ups and downs in the turns happen every six, nine months and then things pick up again,' says Gregory Wells, the firm's Asia head. The story of growth for China's economy, cities and disposable income 'hasn't changed,' he adds.

比如私募股權投資公司Forum Partners表示，該公司繼續押注中小開發商。這是因爲中小房地產開發商無法像大型開發商那樣輕鬆獲得銀行貸款，這就給私人資本提供了投資機會。該公司亞洲業務負責人韋爾斯(Gregory Wells)表示，過去他們看到過不少起伏，每六個月或者九個月就會出現一次低迷，之後形勢又再次好轉。他補充道，有關中國經濟、城市和可支配收入增長的前景並未改變。