分析報道 中國房地產市場的前景黯淡

As China’s real estate slump began to hit sales at the Champs Elysées development in the picturesque lakeside city of Hangzhou, the company building it responded with a price cut.

隨着中國房地產市場的不景氣開始打擊天鴻香榭裏項目的銷售，開發商以降價迴應。該項目位於風景如畫的湖畔城市杭州。

Angry homeowners gathered to protest, holding banners with slogans such as “Return my blood and sweat money!” as police formed a barricade around the office entrance. The residents relented eventually, perhaps with the creeping realisation that the days of making easy money are over.

憤怒的業主聚集起來舉行抗議，他們拿着的橫幅標語寫着“還我血汗錢！”警察在辦公室入口處搭起人牆。居民們最終還是罷休了，他們或許漸漸認識到，容易賺錢的日子已經過去了。

“People are returning to rationality,” says Chen Xuemei, sales manager at the Champs Elysées. “If they are starting a family and need a home, they will still buy. But people are no longer buying homes expecting to earn a big profit.”

“人們正在迴歸理性，”天鴻香榭裏項目的銷售經理陳雪梅表示，“如果他們開始組織一個家庭，需要一個住所，他們仍然會購買。但是，人們不再爲了賺大錢而置業了。”

China’s property boom appears to be grinding to a halt. Prices have dropped in many parts of the country, sales have dried up and construction has fallen sharply as developers have retrenched.

中國的房地產繁榮似乎正慢慢陷於停頓。全國許多地方的價格已經下降，銷售趨於枯竭，隨着開發商開始收縮，建設規模大幅跳水。

A change in attitude among homebuyers – away from speculation towards a system based on fundamental demand for accommodation – is leading to a shift in the way the country’s housing market operates.

購房者態度的轉變——告別投機，轉向根本的住宿需求——正導致中國房地產市場的運行方式發生轉變。

“Previously parents told their kids: don’t squander your money . . . save it and buy a house. After you buy a house, save more and buy another house,” says Du Jinsong, property analyst at Credit Suisse, the bank. “Now, even parents are saying: don’t buy houses any more – it’s not worth it.”

“以往，父母告訴他們的孩子：別浪費錢……存起來，買一套房子。買了一套房子後，你還要繼續存錢，買第二套房子。”瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地產分析師杜勁鬆表示，“現在就連父母也在說：別再買房子了，不值得。”

China’s last property downturn in 2011 was met with concerted action from central government, including interest rate cuts.

中國上一場房地產市場低迷發生在2011年，它促使中央政府採取協調一致的應對行動，包括減息。

This time, however, Beijing has held firm, leaving local governments – and property developers – to formulate their own responses. Those efforts are now in full swing, including price cuts, easier access to capital and the end of restrictions on buying several houses.

但這一次，北京方面態度堅決，地方政府以及房地產開發商只好拿出自己的應對措施。這些努力目前在全面展開，包括降價、放寬資本獲取渠道以及終止限購政策。

Last week, the southern city of Foshan became the latest to announce an easing of restrictions for those seeking to buy more than one flat, something analysts at credit rating agency Moody’s said should “release some of the pent-up demand for residential properties and reduce pressure on pricing”.

上週，佛山成爲最新一個宣佈放寬限購政策的城市，評級機構穆迪(Moody's)分析師表示，此類舉措應當會“釋放一部分被壓抑的住宅物業需求，減小定價壓力”。

Fujian province announced steps at the end of last month aimed at bolstering demand, including introducing tax incentives for property purchases, while the province of Sichuan even briefly flirted with subsidising mortgages.

福建省在上月底宣佈了一些提振需求的措施，包括出臺購買房產的稅收優惠；四川省甚至一度醞釀補貼房貸。

Of the 47 Chinese cities with home purchase limits at the start of the year, 34 have relaxed their policies, with a dozen removing controls altogether.

在今年初實施住房限購政策的47箇中國城市中，有34個放鬆了政策，12個城市完全廢止了限購。

From the developers’ side, prices have been slashed and extra perks introduced to entice would-be buyers. Some have promised to buy back homes if prices fall, or offered cheap loans to finance downpayments. The Champs Elysées development stressed the French theme by giving bottles of Chanel perfume to people who came for viewings.

就開發商而言，它們已大幅降價，並推出額外的優惠以吸引潛在買家。有些開發商承諾如果價格下跌可以回購住房，或者爲首付提供廉價貸款。以法國情調爲賣點的天鴻香榭裏項目，向前來看房的人贈送香奈兒(Chanel)香水。

These supportive measures – which vary by city and province – have had an effect. Though prices have continued to fall, the number of transactions surged in June as restrictions were eased in certain cities, providing developers with welcome cash and bringing some confidence back to the market.

這些扶持措施——具體做法各省市有所不同——起到了一定作用。儘管價格持續下跌，但隨着某些城市放寬限購，6月份成交數量出現激增，爲開發商帶來亟需的現金，並使市場在一定程度上恢復信心。

However, many analysts say the responses won’t be enough to bring back the heady days of double-digit annual price growth and that the inventory overhang will take at least a year to draw down.

然而，許多分析師表示，這些應對措施不足以讓市場回到兩位數年度價格漲幅的激動人心的日子，而庫存過剩將至少需要一年時間才能消化。

A recent survey of mainland developers by Standard Chartered presented a gloomy picture, with the bank declaring that the worst was yet to come for China’s property sector.

渣打(Standard Chartered)近期對中國開發商進行的一項調查描繪出一幅黯淡的圖景。該行宣稱，中國房地產業最糟糕的日子還在後頭。

Wei Yao, economist at Société Générale, the bank, agrees. “A further slowdown in investment still seems inevitable”, she wrote in a recent note.

法國興業銀行(Société Générale)經濟學家姚煒對此表示認同。“投資進一步放緩看上去仍是不可避免的”，她在最近的一份簡報中寫道。