住房市場價格如水中望月 有報道稱下注時機已到

It's no secret that U.S. home prices have enjoyed a healthy rebound in 2013 after the nightmarish 33% drop over the previous five years that triggered an orgy of mortgage defaults and wealth destruction. These days, monthly home-price reports regularly show double-digit percentage jumps over the year-earlier period, whether it's the 13.3% annual increase for September of the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index or the 12.2% annual rise for October logged by CoreLogic's home-price index.

我們都知道，在之前五年出現33%的噩夢般暴跌，並觸發抵押貸款違約和財富蒸發狂潮後，美國住房價格2013年出現了健康回升。近日來，月度住房價格數據常常會顯示兩位數的同比增幅，9月份S&P/Case-Shiller 20個城市綜合房價指數(S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index)同比升幅高達13.3%，而房地產市場統計公司CoreLogic的10月份住房價格指數年升幅達到12.2%。

Yet, at least some observers question how much longer the home-price recovery can continue. A jump in mortgage rates along with the torrid increases in home prices have hurt transaction volume some. The market has been overly dependent on all-cash buyers such as vulture funds, which earlier this year accounted for about a third of all sales. What will happen when they have eaten their fill? Increasingly, the home-price growth will depend on conventional buyers, who must borrow from a mortgage-lending industry that is still imposing stringent lending standards on new mortgages.

然而，至少有部分觀察人士質疑住房價格的回升勢頭還能持續多久。抵押貸款利率的攀升以及住房價格的飆升已在一定程度上影響了成交量。市場對禿鷲基金（今年早些時候佔總銷量的三分之一左右）等全現金買家過度依賴。如果它們的需求已經飽和，又會發生什麼情況呢？住房價格的上漲將更多地取決於傳統購房者，這類購房者必須從抵押貸款行業借錢，而這些行業對新抵押貸款施行的標準依然苛刻。

Still, after talking to various industry experts and analyzing disparate data, Barron's thinks that home-price appreciation should continue for the next three years, albeit at a slower pace than the double-digit increases seen this year.

不過，在與多位業內專家進行探討，並對不同數據進行分析後，《巴倫週刊》(Barron's)認爲，未來三年住房價格的上漲勢頭應該會持續下去，儘管增速會低於2013年的兩位數增幅。

We claim some bragging rights on the subject: In two cover stories last year 'Home Prices Ready to Rebound' in the March 19 issue and 'Happy at Last' in the Sept. 10 issue we not only called the imminent recovery but hit the timing of it right on the screws.

我們在這個問題上是有誇口資本的：在2012年的兩篇封面文章中（分別爲3月19日刊登的《房價即將反彈》(Home Prices Ready to Rebound)和9月10日刊登的《房價終現走高勢頭》(Happy at Last)），我們不僅預見房地產市場復甦在即，而且精準地預測出復甦的時間。

To be sure, forecasting markets is an unforgiving and somewhat foolhardy task. And experts' three-year projections for home prices vary all over the lot. Ingo Winzer of Local Market Monitor, which tracks more than 300 U.S. metro markets, is looking for price growth of about 7% over each of the next three years, while CoreLogic, the real-estate statistical firm, expects price increases of 4.7% in 2014, 4% in 2015, and 1.9% in 2016.

當然，預測市場走向是一種難以駕馭，還有些莽撞的任務。專家們對未來三年住房價格的預期也是千差萬別。房地產市場分析公司Local Market Monitor（該公司對美國逾300個都會市場進行追蹤）的因戈・文澤爾(Ingo Winzer)預計，未來三年每年的房價漲幅都將達到7%左右，而CoreLogic則預計2014年房價將上漲4.7%，2015年和2016年則分別上漲4%和1.9%。

For the sake of conservatism, we're hewing to the middle range, looking for home-price jumps of 5% in each of the first two years and, perhaps, just 3% in 2016, as new construction picks up to bolster supply and more empty-nest baby boomers put their houses on the market to unlock trapped home equity. These projections somewhat mirror those of Moody's Analytics. 'The U.S. is clearly in a home-price up-cycle that has a lot of room to run,' says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics.

爲保守起見，我們遵循採用中間值的原則，預計未來兩年住房價格每年均攀升5%，2016年漲幅可能僅爲3%，因新建住宅的增加將擴大供應，加之有更多空巢嬰兒潮一代會將自己的房子掛牌出售，爲房屋 資產解套。這些預期可以說與研究公司Moody's Analytics的預期是一致的。Moody's Analytics的首席經濟學家馬克・贊迪(Mark Zandi)稱：“美國顯然處於房價上漲週期，未來還有許多上漲空間。”

A constellation of factors revolves around our relatively upbeat forecast on home prices. Upswings in home prices, like the one that has just begun, tend to run in five-to-10-year cycles, due to market inefficiency arising from the inertia of home buyers' expectations.

我們對房價的預期之所以比較樂觀是基於一系列因素。住房價格的上漲週期（比如剛剛開始的本輪上漲週期）往往會持續五到10年，因爲購房者的預期慣性會導致市場效率低下。

Another positive: Homes are still within reach of many buyers. True, housing is somewhat less affordable now than it was in the past five years, after the recent run-up in prices and higher mortgage rates since the spring the rate on a 30-year conforming mortgage is 4.5%, up from 3.5% in the spring. But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which compares median incomes with median home prices in different locales, homes are still more affordable now than in any of the previous 40 years before the bust. This, of course, is the result of the virtually unprecedented home-price collapse.

另一項利好是：房價仍在許多購房者的承受範圍之內。在經過近期的房價上漲和2013年春季以來抵押貸款利率的上升（30年期標準類抵押貸款利率目前爲4.5%，高於春季的3.5%）之後，當前住房價格確實沒有過去五年那麼便宜了。但根據美國全國地產經紀商協會(National Association of Realtors, 簡稱NAR)的數據（該數據對比了不同地區的收入中值與房價中值），目前住房價格仍比金融危機之前40年中的任何一年都要適中。當然，這是由住房價格史無前例的大滑坡導致的。

Also lending strength to the market is the fact that much of the shadow inventory homes in the foreclosure pipeline or those with seriously delinquent mortgages has been sharply reduced. According to NAR economist Lawrence Yun, that inventory has dropped from nearly 10% of the U.S.'s 50 million mortgages in 2009 to 5.6% of the total today.

此外，“影子庫存”（止贖房屋以及抵押貸款嚴重違約的房屋）大幅減少也是市場提振因素。NAR的經濟學家Lawrence Yun表示，“影子庫存” 2009年佔美國5,000萬按揭房的近10%，目前該比例降至5.6%。

By Yun's reckoning, distressed sales by lenders, or by delinquent homeowners with the approval of their lenders, currently account for about 15% of all home sales, compared with a third of all sales during the bust years of 2008, 2009, and 2010. Distress sales weigh not only directly on home-price indexes they typically sell at about a 17% discount to homes of comparable size and quality but they also blight the appraised values of entire neighborhoods.

Yun估計，貸款機構或違約房主經貸款機構同意而進行的降價急售目前佔住房銷售總量的15%左右，而2008、2009和2010年的衰退階段佔比爲三分之一。降價急售不僅直接拖累住房價格指數（它們的售價一般比相同面積和質量的住房低17%左右），而且有損整個街區住房的估價。

The supply of homes for sale, as any frustrated home buyer can attest, has also dropped to rock-bottom levels. The current inventory number, according to the NAR, stands at about five months' supply at the current sales pace, compared with a more normal level of about 10 months.

待售住房供應（任何一位失望的購房者都可以作證）也降到了谷底。NAR的數據顯示，以當前的售房速度計算，現有存量約相當於五個月的供應量，而比較正常的水平是10個月左右。

The supply constraints don't figure to improve dramatically, at least not over the next two years. New-home construction (both single- and multifamily) is now limping back to a pace of about one million new units next year, and not much more the following year. That's well above the 550,000 new homes built in 2009 as the Great Recession hit home-building with particular ferocity. But housing starts need to hit at least 1.5 million, according Moody's Zandi, or perhaps l.7 million, in order to meet current population growth, net immigration, the replacement of obsolescent housing stock, and demand that has built up during the housing bust.

供應面的制約估計不會出現顯著改善，至少未來兩年不會。預計2014年新建住宅（包括單戶和多戶型住宅）將回落至100萬套左右，明年也不會比這多很多。這一數字遠高於2009年大衰退(Great Recession)猛烈衝擊住宅建築業時的55萬套新建住宅。但Moody's Analytics的贊迪稱，新屋開工數至少要達到150萬套乃至170萬套才能滿足當前人口增長、 移民和更換老舊住宅的需要以及住房市場衰退期間積聚的需求。

After all, no supply factor is as crucial to the health and balance of the housing market as new homes, even though in a typical year existing-home sales represent about 75% of all residential sales.

雖然成屋銷售一般佔年住宅銷售總量的75%左右，但畢竟沒有什麼供應面因素對住房市場健康和平衡的重要性能與新建住房匹敵。

Lastly, housing prices figure to be bolstered by significant pent-up demand over the next couple of years, particularly if lenders loosen credit standards and mortgage rates remain well behaved. Household formations young adults moving to their own abodes from mom and dad's basement or from cramped apartments shared with friends is finally starting to revive after being in the deep freeze since 2007, running at about a half-million a year over the five-year period ended in 2011. With improved employment prospects and income growth, new household formations figure to hit a more-normal annual rate of about 1.1 million over the next three years.

最後，未來幾年受抑制需求的大量釋放會對房價構成支撐，尤其是在貸款機構放鬆信貸標準，抵押貸款利率保持穩定的情況下。自立門戶（年輕人從父母家的地下室或者與朋友合租的狹小公寓搬入自己的住所）2007年以來一度墜入冰點（在截至2011年的五年裏，每年僅爲50萬左右），現在終於開始回暖。隨着就業前景的改善和收入的增加，預計新增自立門戶者數量在未來三年裏將趨於正常，達到每年110萬左右的水平。

To be sure, some of these new entrants into the housing market will rent rather than buy homes or apartments. But in a sense that doesn't matter. Rentals contribute to home-price levels and new-housing starts just as surely as outright purchases do, since all such real estate is owned by someone.

當然，這些進入住房市場的新人有些會選擇租房，而不是購買獨棟住房或公寓。但從某種意義上來說，買房還是租房並不重要。和直接購買一樣，租賃也有助於提振住房價格水平和新屋開工數，因爲所有這些房產都會由某位房主所有。

Tight credit standards could, of course, inhibit future housing demand some. According to David Blitzer, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices and maven of the S&P/Case-Shiller Indexes, a lot of potential home buyers are finding mortgages difficult to obtain because of onerous down-payment requirements. Likewise, lenders are demanding higher credit scores than before 2003, when existing lending requirements were deemed prudent, says Blitzer. In today's market, short employment records and various credit-record dings make it tougher for buyers to qualify for a mortgage.

當然，嚴格的信貸標準會對未來的住房需求構成一定抑制。標普道瓊斯指數公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)的董事總經理、S&P/Case-Shiller指數專家戴維・布利策(David Blitzer)稱，許多潛在購房者發現很難獲得抵押貸款，因爲首付要求很高。布利策表示，與之類似，貸款機構對信用分數的要求也比2003年以前高（當時將現行貸款要求視爲審慎的要求）。在當今的市場上，短期僱傭記錄和各種不良信用記錄加大了購房者滿足抵押貸款要求的難度。

Also, mortgage rates seem destined to go higher over the next three years with the tapering in Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Unhelpful on that score was the recent announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be charging higher fees at the start of 2014 to guarantee mortgages of borrowers with lower credit scores and an inability to put up the full 20% down payments on home purchases.

此外，隨着美國聯邦儲備委員會(簡稱Fed)抵押貸款支持證券購買規模的逐步縮減，未來三年抵押貸款利率走高應該是必然的。而房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)近期推行的舉措也是一項不利因素，兩家機構宣佈，從2014年年初開始，將對信用分數較低，無力全額支付20%購房首付款的借款者收取更高的抵押貸款擔保費用。

Yet, higher mortgage rates won't be a deal breaker unless they rise markedly, which could prove to be a psychological barrier. Likewise, most up-cycles in home prices tend to last five to 10 years because of inherent momentum in residential real- estate prices. The steady increases in home-equity levels of the past year have triggered a virtuous cycle that will continue to boost prices in the future.

不過，抵押貸款利率的上升不會成爲關鍵問題，除非上升幅度非常大（可能會成爲一種心理障礙）。類似的，受住宅房地產價格的內在動能影響，房價上漲週期大都會持續五到10年。過去一年住房 值水平的穩步增長已經觸發了一輪良性循環，未來會繼續推動價格上漲。

And perhaps most important, home prices were battered so badly during the recent home real-estate depression that they seemingly have nowhere to go but up.

此外，最重要的也許是，住房價格在近期的住宅地產衰退中受到沉重打擊，應該已經沒有下跌的空間，而只會走高。

Forget the gaudy year-over-year monthly price jumps of over 20% reported by the likes of Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami Dade County. According to a CoreLogic analysis, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami were, as of the second quarter, still 39.9%, 50.2%, and 42%, respectively, below their vertiginous price peaks.

菲尼克斯(Phoenix)、拉斯維加斯(Las Vegas)和邁阿密戴德縣(Miami Dade County)等地的房價每月同比漲幅超過20%，但把這些花哨的數字拋在腦後吧。根據CoreLogic的分析，截至2013年第二季度，菲尼克斯、拉斯維加斯和邁阿密的房價仍較它們令人目眩的價格峯值分別低39.9%、50.2%和42%。

The CoreLogic second-quarter numbers contained other surprises, as well. While such real-estate disaster areas as Fort Myers Cape Coral in Florida and Riverside and Stockton in California were about 50% below peak values, the San Francisco San Mateo Redwood market had already recovered to just 7.6% off peak, while Boston-Quincy is just 10.9% below peak level. The latter two markets were obviously aided by strength in the most desirable neighborhoods of these coastal cities.

CoreLogic第二季度的數據還有其他令人意想不到的因素。儘管佛羅里達州的邁爾斯堡-開普科勒爾(Fort Myers Cape Coral)以及加州的里弗賽德(Riverside)和斯托克頓(Stockton)等房地產災區房價較峯值低50%左右，但舊金山- 馬特奧-雷德伍德(San Francisco San Mateo Redwood)的市場已經回升，目前僅較峯值低7.6%，而波士頓-昆西(Boston-Quincy)僅較峯值水平低10.9%。後兩個沿海城市市場顯然是受市內最熱社區的房地產走強提振。

And a number of metro areas have already returned to peak-value prices, largely because they avoided the last price boom or got a nice boost from recent secular economic developments. Real estate in Texas (Houston, Dallas Fort Worth, San Antonio, Beaumont, and Amarillo) and Oklahoma (Tulsa and Oklahoma City) has profited mightily from the energy boom, as have Fargo and Bismarck in North Dakota and Rapid City in South Dakota.

此外，許多都會區的房價已經回升至峯值，在很大程度上是因爲這些地區的房價在上次的房地產熱潮中並未上漲，或者受到近期經濟大發展的有力提振。德克薩斯州（休斯敦(Houston)、達拉斯-沃思堡(Dallas Fort Worth)、 安東尼奧(San Antonio)、博蒙特(Beaumont)和阿馬裏洛(Amarillo)）和俄克拉何馬州（塔爾薩(Tulsa)和俄克拉何馬城(Oklahoma City)）的房地產大大得益於能源業的繁榮，北達科他州的法戈(Fargo)和俾斯麥(Bismarck)以及南達科他州的拉皮德城(Rapid City)也是一樣。

The state of Iowa; Honolulu; Louisville, Ky.; Buffalo, N.Y.; Great Falls, Mont.; and Erie, Pa. (on the fringe of the Marcellus Shale) were also at new price highs in the second quarter.

艾奧瓦州、火奴魯魯(Honolulu)、肯塔基州路易斯維爾(Louisville)、紐約州布法羅(Buffalo)、蒙大拿州大瀑布城(Great Falls)以及賓夕法尼亞州伊利(Erie)（位於馬塞盧斯頁岩(Marcellus Shale)邊緣）2013年第二季度也創出了房價新高。

The table on the previous page includes the three-year home-price projections of Ingo Winzer of Local Market Monitor. His methodology involves establishing equilibrium home prices for each market, or the price for housing that the area's per capita income can comfortably support. Other inputs also enter into his calculations, including local unemployment rates, in- or out-migration, and market momentum.

Local Market Monitor的文澤爾對未來三年的房價給出了樂觀的預期。他的計算方法包括爲每個市場建立均衡住房價格，即該地區人均收入能夠輕鬆支撐的住房價格。他在計算中還考慮到其他因素，包括當地失業率、居民遷入或遷出以及市場動能。

It's the last factor that has him somewhat worried over the bullish cast of his forecast of 6.9%, 7.1%, and 7.1% growth over the next three years, beginning in the third quarter of this year. He said his numbers may have been 'polluted' by large volumes of distressed sales in the past, which tend to exaggerate the current increases.

讓他對自己的樂觀預期（他預計從2013年第三季度開始，未來三年的房價漲幅會分別達到6.9%、7.1%和7.1%）感到有些擔心的是最後一項因素。他說，他的數據可能受到過去大量降價急售的房產“污染”，這會放大當前的漲幅。

Yet he is confident that he has the direction of the trend in U.S. home prices right, if not its absolute magnitude or speed.

但他堅信自己對美國住房價格走向的把握是正確的，雖然在絕對數量或速度上會有一定出入。

And that's great news for growth in household net worth, construction employment, gross domestic product, and perhaps most important, homeowner peace of mind.

這對家庭 資產、建築業就業以及國內生產總值的增長都是重大利好，而最重要的也許是，房市的回暖能讓房主心態更加平和。