廣東的償債能力與房地產市場休慼相關

China's southern province of Guangdong was the first beneficiary of Beijing's policy of opening up the economy to the outside world, becoming an export powerhouse and a magnet for foreign investment. It was also among the first local governments given a chance to issue bonds on its own -- without Beijing holding its hand -- as part of the central government's plan to expand the financing channels of better-managed provinces and cities.

地處中國南方的廣東省是中國改革開放政策的首個受益者，並逐漸成爲一個重要的出口基地和吸引外商投資的磁石。廣東也是首批獲准在不依靠中央的情況下自主發債的地方政府之一，這是中央爲治理較好的省市擴大融資渠道的方案之一。

But a credit rating report on Guangdong shows that even this relatively well-to-do province is heavily dependent on land and property sales, and that could make it vulnerable to financial stress in the current real-estate market downturn.

但一份對廣東的信用評級報告顯示，儘管是個相對富裕的省份，廣東也嚴重依賴土地出讓和房地產銷售，在當前房地產市場低迷的情況下，可能很容易面臨金融壓力。

The credit report, issued by Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., was released publicly on Tuesday thanks to the requirement that local governments need to make their financial position transparent before they can sell bonds. The financial data show that in 2012 -- the most recent year for which full figures are available -- more than half of the province's revenue came from land sales. Moreover, that relatively high dependence was actually below the national average.

由於有關規定要求地方政府在發行債券前必須公示地方財政狀況，上海新世紀資信評估投資服務有限公司(Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., 簡稱：上海新世紀)的這份信用評級報告在週二得以公開發布。財政數據顯示，2012年（有完整數據可供參考的最近年份）廣東省財政收入的一半以上來自土地出讓；不過，這種較高的依賴程度實際上低於全國平均水平。

Most local governments still rely on the central government to issue debt on their behalf. But Guangdong is one of the privileged few that can issue bonds directly, and it plans to sell 14.8 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) worth of debt this year.

目前，中國的多數地方政府仍依靠中央代爲發行債券。但廣東是享有直接發行地方債特權的爲數不多的地方政府之一。廣東省計劃今年發行價值人民幣148億元的債券。

Shanghai Briliance gave Guangdong an overall rating of AAA, the highest level possible, reflecting what it said was the province's stable economic and fiscal conditions.

上海新世紀將廣東省的總體信用評級定爲AAA，這是評級體系中的最高等級，理由是廣東省的經濟和財政狀況穩定。

Guangdong has become a center of light industry, has a healthy service sector and boasts relatively high incomes. That gives it a comparatively diversified income stream -- at least compared to other parts of the country.

廣東已成爲中國的輕工業中心，擁有健全的服務業，而且收入水平較高。這爲廣東提供了相當多元化的收入來源，至少相對於國內其他地區而言。

But there are plenty of concerns of potential repayment problems, as Shanghai Brilliance made clear. The provincial government is still dependent on land sales for income and it has made heavy investments in property as the real-estate market is heading south.

但上海新世紀明確指出，廣東的潛在還款問題也頗令人擔憂。眼下在房地產市場下滑之際，廣東省政府仍依靠土地出讓獲取財政收入，而且已對房地產進行了大量投資。

In good times, a red-hot property market has boosted the provincial government's income and enabled higher spending levels, the rating firm said.

新世紀評級稱，當房地產行業繁榮時，廣東省的政府性基金收入和支出均相應有所增長。

In 2013, when home sales were up 40%, Guangdong's government revenue surged 62% over the previous year while spending climbed 55%, the rating firm said. About 35% of the province's fixed-asset investment went to the property market in 2013, compared with 27% in the manufacturing sector.

該評級機構稱，2013年，廣東省商品房銷售額增長40%，該省的政府性基金收入和支出分別同比增長62%和55%。2013年，該省大約35%的固定資產投資進入了房地產市場，相比之下，進入製造業的比重爲27%。

That compares with real-estate taking 25% of total fixed-asset investment for all of China last year, according to J.P. Morgan economist Zhu Haibin.

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)經濟學家朱海濱稱，去年中國房地產業的投資佔全國固定資產投資總額的比例爲25%。

With the property market cooling as a result of increased supply and weaker demand amid an economic slowdown, the provincial government could see trouble down the road.

由於在經濟增速下降的背景下，房地產市場供應增加，同時需求下降，中國的房地產市場出現降溫，這也可能在未來給廣東省政府帶來麻煩。

'Guangzhou's economic growth has a definite reliance on the property market,' the rating company said. 'Fluctuations in the property and land markets will affect government income.'

新世紀評級稱，廣東省經濟增長對房地產市場具有一定的依賴性，並表示，該省房地產市場和土地市場將對該省政府性基金收入將產生一定影響。

The average price of new homes in 70 Chinese cities declined in May from April, the first such drop in two years, as property developers cut prices to offset sluggish demand and a supply glut.

中國70個大中城市5月份的新建住宅平均房價環比下降，爲兩年來的首次環比下降，這主要是由於在需求低迷及供應過剩情況下，房地產開發商紛紛降價促銷。

Like the rest of the country, the province's property market is struggling this year. Average new home prices in Guangzhou, the provincial capital, were unchanged in May from April, but for Shenzhen, China's manufacturing hub, prices were down 0.2% month-on-month.

與中國其他地區一樣，廣東省的房地產市場今年也遭遇困境。廣州5月份的新建住宅均價較4月份持平，但深圳當月的新建住宅均價較4月份下降0.2%。

Thanks to the bond sales, investors are getting a peek at local-level financial records, which normally would be hidden from the public.

投資者借地方政府發債的機會得以查看地方政府的財政狀況，通常情況下地方財政狀況不會公開。

It's hard to say whether the investing public will snap up the Guangdong bonds -- or shy away due to worries over the province's ability to repay. But the credit report makes clear that the health of the property sector is closely tied to the health of Guangdong's finances. And if one of the better managed provinces is facing repayment risk -- the risk for other areas is certainly even greater.

目前還很難說投資者是會購買廣東省的政府債，還是會因爲擔心該省的償還能力而回避該省的地方債。但這份報告清楚地表明，廣東省的財政狀況與房地產市場的健康狀況休慼相關。如果連財政狀況管理相對較好的一個省份都面臨償付風險，中國其他地區的償付風險無疑就更大了。