香港房地產市場前景堪憂
In the heart of Wan Chai, on one of Hong Kong’s busiest streets, stands a 33-storey office tower that earlier this year became the second most expensive property to change hands in a city that boasts the world’s costliest property market.
在香港最繁忙地帶之一灣仔(Wan Chai)的中心，坐落着一幢30多層的寫字樓。今年早些時候，這幢大樓的易手使其成爲世界最貴樓市香港的第二貴地產項目。
China Everbright, the financial conglomerate that bought the Dah Sing Financial Centre for HK$10bn ($1.29bn), is just one of a number of mainland Chinese companies to have splashed out on headquarters in the city over the past year.
以100億港元（合12.9億美元）購入大新金融中心(Dah Sing Financial Centre)的中國光大控股(China Everbright)，只是過去一年裏在香港大舉購置總部大樓的衆多內地企業之一。
Banks, asset managers and insurance companies have flocked from mainland China to acquire prime Hong Kong office buildings, prompting the territory’s government to announce it will release more land for commercial redevelopment in the oversubscribed heart of the city.
銀行、基金公司和保險公司從內地涌向香港，收購這裏的高端寫字樓，導致香港政府宣佈將釋放更多土地，在火爆的城市中心地段進行商業再開發。
But as economic growth slows in China, institutional investors from further afield say the city’s property market has overheated and is entering a correctional phase.
但是，海外機構投資者表示，隨着中國經濟增長放慢，香港房地產市場已經過熱，正在進入調整階段。
“For years we had Chinese growth going gangbusters and US rates going down,” says Josh Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual Global Investors, the asset management arm of Old Mutual, the insurer. “But transaction volumes have dried up quite significantly, so we are not really sure what the prices are. That looks like a tough fundamental outlook.”
“多年以來，我們看到中國增長勢如破竹，而美國增長率卻在下降，”保險商耆衛(Old Mutual)旗下資產管理公司Old Mutual Global Investors的亞洲股票業務主管喬希•克拉布(Josh Crabb)說，“但是，交易量下降得相當厲害，所以我們並不真的確定當前價格到底如何。看起來，香港市場的基本面展望非常嚴峻。”
According to government sources, property sales in Hong Kong fell almost 40 per cent in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2015 — both in terms of price and volume. An index from the Rating and Valuation Department released this month showed the commercial sector was a particular casualty, with prices falling 5.7 per cent in May compared with the same month last year.
政府部門的數據顯示，無論在銷售額和銷售量上看，今年上半年香港房地產銷售較去年同期下降了近40%。香港差餉物業估價署(Rating and Valuation Department)本月發佈的一項指數表明，商業地產受到的衝擊尤爲嚴重，今年5月價格較去年同期下降了5.7%。
Mr Crabb has taken no exposure to Hong Kong’s property market since setting up in Asia 18 months ago, because he says prices are too high and affordability too low.
自從18個月前在亞洲設立業務以來，克拉布一直沒有涉足香港房地產市場，因爲他表示，價格太高了，可擔負性太差。
Dirk Philippa, portfolio manager of Fidelity International’s global property fund, has also cut investments in Hong Kong from a 6-8 per cent overweight two years ago, relative to benchmarks, to a 1 per cent overweight position.
富達國際(Fidelity International)旗下全球地產基金的投資組合經理德克•菲利帕(Dirk Philippa)也削減了在香港的投資，把配置比重從兩年前相對基準超配6%至8%調整至超配1%。
“It is an area where clearly the fundamentals are slowing down,” he says. “I sold down a little bit, then the whole correction happened very quickly, so I waited for a rebound and sold there.”
“在香港地區，房地產的基本面明顯放慢下來，”他說，“我減持了一點兒，然後很快發生了全面調整，所以我等到反彈後，賣出了一部分。”
Property prices in Hong Kong have surged over the past decade, but hit a peak in September when jitters about China’s economy took hold.
香港房地產價格過去十年大幅上漲，但在去年9月見頂，那時中國經濟引發的緊張佔據了主導。
Rents at the top end of the market have fallen 6.4 per cent, more sharply than in any other city except Nairobi, according to Knight Frank, the property company. Last year, just after prices fell in September, Adidas, the sportswear group, leased a 13,000 square foot shop in the city for 22 per cent less than its former occupier, Coach, the accessories brand.
房地產經紀公司萊坊(Knight Frank)的數據顯示，今年第一季度，香港豪宅租金同比下跌5.2%，跌幅超過內羅畢以外的任何其他城市。就在去年9月價格下跌之後，運動品牌阿迪達斯(Adidas)在香港租入了一間1.3萬平方英尺的店鋪，租金相比上一個租戶、配飾品牌蔻馳(Coach)低了22%。
Economists say that both the residential and commercial markets in Hong Kong will be hurt by the same factors: slower growth in China, the depreciation of the renminbi, a crackdown on corruption on the mainland, and predictions that the US’s low interest-rate environment is due to end. However, government cooling measures introduced in 2012 to reduce speculative investment in Hong Kong property are an additional damper on the residential sector.
經濟學家表示，香港住宅市場和商業地產市場都將受到一些相同因素的損害：中國增長放緩、人民幣貶值、中國內地反腐以及美國低利率環境將走向終結的預期。然而，住宅市場的發展還受到一個額外因素的阻礙，即2012年政府爲減少香港房地產市場上的投機活動而出臺的“降溫”措施。
“Cooling measures [are] the most important issue affecting the [residential] property market in Hong Kong,” says Thomas Lam, head of valuation at Knight Frank. “That is why all the major institutional plans are looking at the office market in the past two or three years.”
“‘降溫’措施（是）影響香港（住宅）地產市場的最重要問題，”萊坊估價主管林浩文(Thomas Lam)說，“這正是過去兩三年裏所有大型機構的方案都在關注寫字樓市場的原因。”
Mr Lam predicts that any recovery in the market will rely on appetite from cash-rich companies from mainland China, with foreign investors restricting their investments to real estate investment trusts or stocks exposed to developers, rather than actual property.
林浩文預測稱，市場的任何復甦都將倚賴來自資金充沛的內地公司的需求，同時外國投資者將僅限於投資於房地產投資信託或者涉及地產開發商的股票，而不會真的買入房產。
Structural challenges in the market, which is dominated by large property developers, have generally acted as disincentives to large European and US asset managers.
在這個被大型地產開發商主宰的市場，結構性挑戰通常成爲抑制歐美大型資產管理公司的因素。
Erle Spratt, who manages M&G’s Asia property fund, an open-ended investment vehicle, says it is risky to invest directly because assets are not easy to find and price. “It is a very difficult market to buy assets in for investors like us, because developers have very substantial holdings and they tend not to sell,” he says.
執掌M&G旗下亞洲地產基金（一種開放式投資工具）的厄爾•斯普拉特(Erle Spratt)說，直接投資房產存在風險，因爲這樣的資產很難物色和定價。“這是一個像我們這樣的投資者很難買到房產的市場，因爲開發商持有大量房產，他們通常不賣，”他說。
But John Davies, head of institutional investment in the Hong Kong team at CBRE, the property services business, says that lower prices should make the market more reliable. “The market is showing characteristics of a mature market, which institutional investors understand better,” he says.
但是，房地產經紀公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)香港機構投資團隊主管約翰•戴維斯(John Davies)說，價格下降應會讓香港房地產市場變得更加可靠。“這個市場正在顯示出機構投資者更瞭解的成熟市場的特徵，”他說。
William Leung, portfolio manager at Cohen & Steers, the US investment house with $4bn of assets exposed to Asia, agrees. He argues that speculative investment will be driven out of the market as prices fall. He adds that a trend in the industry towards alternative investments should mean that the price of real estate investment trusts rises even if the value of underlying assets grow more slowly. “We don’t think this correction will be so sharp,” he says.
持有40億美元亞洲相關資產的美國投資機構Cohen & Steers的基金經理樑緯濂(William Leung)認同這一點。他主張，隨着價格下跌，投機性投資將被驅逐出市場。他補充稱，行業中另類投資熱度上升的趨勢應當意味着，即便基礎資產的價值上漲得更慢，房地產投資信託的價格也會上升。“我們認爲，這次調整的幅度將不會太大，”他說。
For now, occasional high-ticket deals such as the Dah Sing Financial Centre and the purchase of a HK$2.1bn luxury house on the affluent Peak, come amid wider pessimism about the sector. The office sector showed the most activity in the first quarter this year, but this still translated into only eight deals in total, according to CBRE.
就目前而言，雖然偶爾出現一些高價交易（比如大新金融中心、以21億港元售出的太平山頂豪宅），但整個行業瀰漫着廣泛的悲觀情緒。世邦魏理仕數據顯示，今年第一季度房地產業最活躍的部分是寫字樓，但交易總量也不過8筆。
