中國對美國房地產市場投資趨緩

An unprecedented influx of Chinese money into US real estate is slowing following moves by Beijing to restrict the amount of funding leaving the country, according to a report.

根據一份報告，在北京方面採取措施限制資金出境後，涌入美國房地產的規模空前的中國資金洪流正在放緩。

In recent years a tide of Chinese money has hit global property markets, with buyers from the country now the largest single group of foreign investors in residential property in the US, UK and Australia. But after inflows of $110bn into US real estate between 2010 and 2015, investment in residential American property is expected to drop in the next two years, according to the report by the US-based Asia Society and the Rosen Consulting Group.

近年來，一股中國資金潮撲向全球房地產市場，如今中國買家是美國、英國和澳大利亞住宅物業的最大境外投資者羣體。但是，根據總部位於美國的亞洲協會(Asia Society)和羅森諮詢集團(Rosen Consulting Group)的報告，在2010年至2015年期間1100億美元流入美國房地產之後，預計未來兩年對美國住宅房地產的投資將會下降。

Following record outflows of capital last year, Chinese authorities have tightened enforcement of existing capital controls and made it more difficult for Chinese companies to invest abroad.

繼去年出現創紀錄的資本外流之後，中國當局收緊了對現有資本管制的執行，並加大了中國企業海外投資的難度。

Chinese nationals are permitted to convert only $50,000 worth of renminbi per year. Those seeking to spend more abroad used workarounds such as pooling allowances or using a Chinese credit card overseas, but the state foreign exchange regulator has clamped down on such practices. Banks had also been permitted to help customers transfer money abroad, but it is now harder to win the necessary official approval for large transfers.

中國公民每人每年只被允許用人民幣購買價值5萬美元的外匯。尋求在國外花掉更多資金的人使用各種變通辦法，比如利用多人的購匯額度，或者在境外使用中國信用卡，但國家外匯管理局已採取行動限制這類做法。此前銀行還被允許幫助客戶向海外轉移資金，但現在要獲得轉移大筆資金所需的官方批准更難了。

Wealthy Chinese have looked overseas to diversify their assets outside the overheating domestic property market. Price rises of almost 60 per cent year on year have stoked fears that localised bubbles may be on the verge of bursting. Local governments in top cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai have moved to stem the rises, making it more difficult to purchase second homes.

中國富人把目光投向海外，是爲了在國內過熱的房地產市場之外分散自己的資產。近60%的同比價格漲幅令人擔心局部的泡沫可能就要破裂。在深圳和上海等一線城市，地方政府已採取行動遏止價格飆漲，提高了購買第二套住房的難度。

Money flowing into prime overseas markets has prompted a backlash in some countries, with the governments of Australia and Singapore, for example, imposing restrictions on overseas buyers after local residents complained of being priced out of the market.

流入海外一線市場的資金已經在一些國家引發反彈，例如澳大利亞和新加坡政府在本地居民抱怨價格太高、自己被排擠出房市後，均出臺了針對海外買家的限制措施。

The authors of the report, who expect Chinese investment in US residential property to drop from $28.6bn in 2015 to about $24bn in 2020, believe the fall-off will ease upward pressure on prices.

上述報告的作者們預計，中國人士對美國住宅物業的投資將從2015年的286億美元降至2020年的約240億美元。他們相信，這一下降將緩解價格上漲壓力。

“Chinese buyers are very aggressive bidders, and if you take one aggressive bidder away, it changes the whole complexion of bids,” said Arthur Margon, a partner at Rosen Consulting Group. “There will be less upward pressure on property prices during this two- to three-year hiatus.”

“中國買家是非常咄咄逼人的競價者，少了這樣一個咄咄逼人的競價者，整個競價的局面就會改變，”羅森諮詢集團合夥人亞瑟•馬剛(Arthur Margon)表示。“在這2至3年的間隙期間，房價的上行壓力將會小一些。”

Anecdotal evidence suggests the pattern of Chinese investments may also be changing in other prime overseas markets. “We saw Chinese buyers coming into the UK residential market last year in a big way,” said one manager at a London-based real estate investment firm, who said prices for properties worth more than ￡5m had been pushed even higher. “But interest has flattened off since the beginning of the year, leading to prices of high-end properties moderating in London and New York.”

坊間證據似乎表明，中國人士在其他海外一線市場的投資模式可能也在改變。“去年我們看到中國買家大舉進入英國住宅市場，”總部位於倫敦的某房地產投資公司的一名經理表示；此人透露，500萬英鎊以上房地產的價格被推至更高水平。“但自今年初以來，買家的興趣已經減弱，導致倫敦和紐約高端物業的價格趨緩。”

Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: “Chinese regulators are scrutinising deals in part because they want to prevent splurging on unviable investments — officials look at Japan in the 1980s when investors poured money abroad and got burnt. China is still in foreign exchange preservation mode, and is going with a tooth comb through capital outflows.”

匯豐(HSBC)亞洲經濟研究聯席主管範力民(Frederic Neumann)表示：“中國監管機構正在密切關注一些交易，部分原因是他們希望阻止國內人士在不可行的投資上揮霍；官員們看到日本在上世紀80年代的行爲，當時日本投資者大舉向國外投資，結果遭受損失。中國仍處於外匯儲藏模式，難免要對資本外流進行控管。”