中國黯淡數據引發刺激政策預測

The Chinese economy continued to slow in April, prompting predictions of more fiscal and monetary stimulus from Beijing, much of which is likely to boost its booming stock market.

中國經濟在4月繼續放緩，促使人們預測北京方面將出臺更多財政和貨幣刺激措施，而這些措施有很大一部分很可能推高處於牛市中的股市。

Fixed asset investment, a key driver of the economy, expanded by 12 per cent in the first four months of the year from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2000 and down from 13.5 per cent in the first quarter.

中國經濟的關鍵驅動力——固定資產投資在今年頭四個月同比擴張12%，這是自2000年以來最慢的步伐，而且低於第一季度13.5%的同比增幅。

That was driven largely by sliding investment and construction in the crucial real estate sector, which is suffering from oversupply and tepid demand.

這在很大程度上可歸因於重要的房地產行業投資和建設不斷下滑，該行業正遭遇供應過剩和需求乏力。

Overall property investment in the country grew 6 per cent in the first four months from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from 8.5 per cent growth in the first quarter and the slowest pace since May 2009.

中國的總體房地產投資在今年頭四個月同比增長6%，相比第一季度的8.5%出現急劇減速，而且是自2009年5月以來最慢的增速。

Growth in retail sales came in at 10 per cent in April from a year earlier, down slightly from 10.2 per cent in March but the weakest monthly reading in nine years.

4月份社會消費品零售總額同比增長10%，僅略低於3月的10.2%，但卻是9年來最疲弱的月度同比增幅。

China is almost certain to grow at its slowest pace in 25 years this year and the government will struggle to meet its already lowered target of “around 7 per cent” expansion.

今年中國幾乎可以肯定將錄得25年以來最慢的經濟增長，政府要達到其已經下調的“7%左右”的增長目標將有難度。

“Today’s activity data suggest that the momentum of growth during the first month of the second quarter could have slowed further to below 7 per cent,” said Liu Ligang, economist at ANZ bank. “Thus, more growth stabilisation policies could be expected to roll out.”

“今日發佈的經濟活動數據似乎表明，第二季度第一個月的增長勢頭可能進一步放緩至7%以下，”澳新銀行(ANZ bank)經濟學家劉利剛表示。“因此，可以預期會有更多的穩增長政策出臺。”

On Sunday China cut benchmark interest rates for the third time in six months to shore up flagging activity.

上週日，中國在六個月內第三次下調基準利率，以提振疲弱的經濟活動。

The central bank has also lowered the proportion of deposits banks must hold in reserve (known as the reserve ratio requirement) twice since the start of the year, including a 100-basis-point cut last month that was the biggest since the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

自年初以來，中國央行還兩次下調了存款準備金率，包括上月的100個基點下調，那是自2008年金融危機最嚴重時期以來的最大幅度“降準”。

Most analysts expect Beijing to continue cutting interest rates and the RRR in the coming months.

多數分析師預計，北京將在未來幾個月繼續降息和下調存款準備金率。

“We expect sequential growth momentum to improve in the coming months, but given the deep-rooted challenges such as the severe overcapacity problem in upstream industries, any improvement will still be rather fragile,” said Yang Zhao, an economist at Nomura. “Hence, we expect policy to remain accommodative.”

“我們預計，環比增長勢頭將在接下來的幾個月出現起色，但考慮到根深蒂固的挑戰，比如上游產業產能嚴重過剩的問題，任何好轉都仍將是相當脆弱的，”野村證券(Nomura)經濟學家趙揚表示。“因此，我們預計政策將保持寬鬆。”

While the government has tried to target its stimulus policies to benefit the economy and keep construction going across the country, much of the fresh liquidity has found its way into the booming stock market, helping the benchmark index to double in the past year.

雖然政府一直試圖出臺針對性的刺激政策，以求惠及經濟，扶持全國各地的建設活動，但相當大一部分新的流動性進入了不斷上漲的境內股市，推動基準股指在過去一年翻倍。

After the data release yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.58 per cent after rising 1.6 per cent on Tuesday.

昨日數據公佈後，上證綜指(Shanghai Composite Index)下跌0.58%，週二該指數上漲1.6%。

Japan’s Nikkei stock index erased early losses to end up 0.7 per cent on hopes of fresh Chinese stimulus.

受中國出臺新刺激措施的希望鼓舞，日本的日經股指(Nikkei stock index)昨日止跌轉漲，收盤上升0.7%。

On the bright side, some analysts highlighted data suggesting the year-long slump in demand for Chinese real estate could be coming to an end.

從光明的一面看，一些分析師強調了一些似乎表明持續一年的中國房地產需求低迷可能即將結束的數據。

For example, the floor area of property sold in the first four months of the year fell 4.8 per cent from a year earlier, an improvement on the 9.2 per cent year-on-year decline in the first quarter.

例如，今年頭四個月的商品房銷售面積同比下降4.8%，相比第一季度9.2%的同比降幅有所好轉。