"佔中"不止阻塞交通 還拖累香港經濟

Signs are growing that Hong Kong’s pro-democracy street protests, now well into their second month, are beginning to prove a drag on the local economy.

越來越多的跡象表明，已持續1個月零9天的香港民主抗議活動，已開始拖累當地經濟。

Hong Kong’s purchasing managers' index – a survey of business conditions released by HSBC – showed that private sector activity last month dropped at its fastest pace in three years. The October reading of 47.7 compares with 49.8 the month before. A figure below 50 indicates contraction.

香港的採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示，上月私人部門活動創下3年來最大跌幅。該指數由匯豐(HSBC)發佈，是針對營商環境的調查結果。10月的PMI爲47.7，與前一月的49.8差異顯著。PMI指數低於50表示經濟在收縮。

A student-led civil disobedience movement has closed a number of main highways in three key business districts of Hong Kong since late September. Protesters, who at one point numbered more than 100,000, have been calling on Hong Kong’s government to alter its plans for electoral reform, due to be introduced in 2017.

自9月底以來，一場由學生領導的公民抗命運動封鎖了香港三大商業區的多條主要公路。抗議者一度超過10萬人，他們呼籲香港政府修改將於2017年實施的選舉改革方案。

So far little progress has been made in finding a solution to the problem through dialogue, while the government has chosen not to deploy force to clear the protesters from their camps.

迄今爲止，各方通過對話尋找解決方案的努力進展不大，而政府已決定不動用武力清場。

The PMI reading is the first piece of reliable economic data for the month of October, giving an early indication of the impact of the protests. Official retail sales, which many analysts expect to have suffered from the unrest, are not due to be released until the end of this month.

最新PMI讀數是關於10月經濟表現的第一個可靠數據，初步反映了抗議活動的影響。官方零售銷售額數據預定在本月末發佈，許多分析師預測，動盪的局勢肯定拉低了銷售額。

However, Hong Kong’s retail management association has said that some of its members reported dramatic falls in sales in the first few days of October, a national holiday period when millions of tourists arrive every year from China.

香港零售管理協會(retail management association)表示，一些會員企業報告，10月頭幾天、也就是國慶假期期間的銷售額出現了明顯下滑。每年國慶假期都有數百萬遊客從內地前往香港。

Sa Sa International, a Hong Kong-listed cosmetics retailer popular with visitors, reported a 3 per cent drop in sales during the holiday period, which it said was “mainly attributable to a decrease in traffic as a result of the recent demonstrations”.

香港上市公司、備受遊客青睞的化妝品零售商莎莎國際(Sa Sa International)報告，國慶假期的銷售額同比下跌3%，“主要是因爲最近的抗議導致客流量下降”。

In its earnings statement this week, German luxury clothing brand Hugo Boss said that the civil unrest in Hong Kong had taken a toll on its global sales, while Estée Lauder mentioned the territory’s “soft retail environment” as it lowered guidance on Tuesday.

德國奢侈服裝品牌雨果博斯(Hugo Boss)本週發佈財報，稱香港的公民抗議活動衝擊了其全球銷售額，而雅詩蘭黛(Estée Lauder)週二調低盈利預期時，則提到香港“低迷的零售業環境”。

The Hong Kong economy is already under pressure as growth over the border in mainland China continues to slow. Retail sales have been falling for most of this year, in part a reflection of an anti-corruption drive that has dented demand for watches, jewellery and other luxury goods.

隨着中國內地經濟增長繼續放緩，香港經濟本來就處於壓力之下。今年香港的零售業銷售額大部分時間在下滑，部分也因爲內地的反腐敗運動降低了手錶、珠寶等奢侈品需求。

However, a number of economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for Hong Kong as a direct result of the disruption to the retail and tourism sectors caused by the political impasse.

一些經濟學家已下調他們對香港的增長預測，這是政治僵局對零售業和旅遊業造成破壞的直接後果。

“We think both tourist and local consumption will fall in October – and likely November too, depending on when street blockages can be cleared – due to protests having reduced human traffic at shops”, Citigroup economist Adrienne Lui wrote recently in a report.

花旗集團(Citigroup)經濟學家雷智顏(Adrienne Lui)在近期一份報告中寫道：“我們認爲10月份的遊客消費和本地消費都會下滑，因爲抗議活動減少了商店的人流量。11月可能也一樣，這取決於街道障礙物何時能被清除。”

The protests have also been linked to the delay of a much-anticipated stock exchange tie-up between Hong Kong and Shanghai. The so-called stock connect will offer investors both inside China and across the world a new avenue for cross-border equities trading of Shanghai and Hong Kong shares.

抗議活動還被認爲與備受期待的“滬港通”——上海證交所與香港證交所之間的互聯互通機制——的推遲有關。這一機制將爲中國內地及世界各地的投資者提供一個跨境買賣香港、上海股票的新途徑。

The scheme was expected to launch in late October but has still not been given the green light from Beijing. On Tuesday CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, directly linked the demonstrations to the project’s apparent delay.

此前人們預計“滬港通”在10月底推出，但北京方面到現在仍未開綠燈。週二，香港特首樑振英(CY Leung)直接將抗議活動與“滬港通”的延遲聯繫到一起。