中國經濟放緩並非一定傷及就業

China's economic policy makers have trained their sights on the twin goals of growth and employment, insisting that growth needs to be near current levels to create enough new jobs.

中國經濟決策者專注於增長和就業的雙重目標，堅信經濟增長需要接近當前水平才能創造足夠多的新工作崗位。

The government wants to create 10 million urban jobs and keep the official urban employment rate under 4.6%. Doing so, they believe, is key to ensuring social stability.

中國政府希望創造1,000萬個城鎮就業崗位，使官方城鎮失業率保持在4.6%以下。他們相信這是確保社會穩定的關鍵。

But many economists say that the official reasoning is flawed and that China could withstand lower growth levels than the 2014 target of about 7.5% and still get all the jobs it needs to meet targets.

但很多經濟學家表示，官方給出的邏輯存在缺陷，中國可以承受比2014年7.5%左右的增長目標更低的增速，同時仍能創造足夠多的就業崗位。

'The relation between GDP and jobs is not that clear,' said Shen Minggao, head of China research with Citigroup. 'Maybe if growth slows to 6% jobs would still be OK.'

花旗集團(Citigroup)中國研究部負責人沈明高表示，國內生產總值(GDP)與就業之間的關係並不是那麼明確。他指出，也許經濟增速放緩至6%，就業狀況仍然沒問題。

The official growth target - often referred to as a 'bottom line' for government leaders - is a sensitive issue. For years, planners set a target of 8% even when actual growth breezed past that level - which was more of an acceptable minimum.

官方的經濟增長目標（常常被稱爲政府領導人的底線）是一個敏感問題。多年來，”保八”一直是中國政府設定的目標，即便實際增速遠超出這個水平――8%的增長目標作爲底線的意義更大一些。

Growth has been slowing more recently, reflecting sluggish global demand and problems at home - not to mention the economy now needs to expand from a much bigger base.

近期中國經濟放緩幅度擴大，暴露出全球需求疲軟和國內存在的各種問題，更不用說中國經濟目前的比較基數比從前大得多。

But the job situation has remained stable. The official unemployment rate is well within the government's broad boundaries - at 4.08% in the first quarter, up marginally from 4.05% at the end of last year.

然而中國的就業形勢卻依然穩定。官方公佈的失業率仍在政府設定的大致範圍內，第一季度爲4.08%，僅略高於去年年底的4.05%。

Employment data so far this year show considerable elasticity in the job market. The first quarter jobs survey released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security showed 111 jobs for every 100 people seeking employment and that the job vacancy level had actually increased over the previous quarter.

今年以來，就業數據顯示勞動力市場有相當大的彈性。人力資源和社會保障部公佈的第一季度就業調查顯示，每100名求職者對應着111個空缺崗位，崗位空缺水平實際上較前一季度上升。

The unofficial 'survey' unemployment rate - which unlike the official figure also covers joblessness among migrant workers who comprise the bulk of the labor force - was a still tolerable 5.17% in March.

3月份非官方調查的失業率爲5.17%，處於可以接受範圍。與官方數據不同的是，非官方數據囊括了在勞動力中佔一大部分的農民工的就業情況。

Growth of jobs has eased due to the slowing economic expansion. But demand for labor has remained resilient across much of the economy - from manufacturing and retail, as well as transport, construction and computer services.

由於經濟擴張放慢，就業增長也趨緩。但從製造業到零售業、再到交通運輸、建築和電腦服務業，中國大部分經濟領域的勞動力需求仍保持彈性。

Combine that with China's aging population - which has meant a decline in the ranks of the nation's working age people (down 2.4 million last year to 920 million) - - and the nation's leaders have a cushion when it comes to unemployment levels.

這種情況再加上中國的老齡化狀況，令中國領導人在失業率問題上有了緩衝餘地。老齡化意味着中國勞動年齡人口數量下滑（去年減少了240萬人，至9.2億人）。

Whether China has wiggle room to allow lower growth without sparking higher unemployment is crucial. Many economists hoped China would set a lower target for this year, sacrificing some short-term expansion in an effort to make longer term economic adjustments. They argue the current credit-fueled growth model cannot be sustained over the longer term.

中國在允許經濟增長放緩但不推高失業率方面是否有迴旋餘地至關重要。很多經濟學家此前希望中國將今年的經濟增長目標設定在較低水平，犧牲一些短期經濟擴張，藉此完成較長期的經濟調整。他們認爲，當前由信貸驅動的經濟增長模式無法長期持續。

China's leaders have acknowledged the need for new growth drivers and have said they want to make consumption a bigger factor, while reducing the reliance on investment and exports over the longer term.

中國領導人已經承認需要新的經濟增長推動力，並稱他們希望在長期內提高消費的貢獻力量，同時降低經濟對投資和出口的依賴。

A structural overhaul will mean job losses in some parts of the state sector - from big employers like the resource sector to clearly non-strategic companies that don't want to see more competition from private interests.

結構性調整將意味着國有經濟領域中一些部分的工作崗位將會減少，從能源領域等大僱主到不希望面臨私有領域更多競爭的非戰略公司都是如此。

That may prove politically difficult. But low unemployment gives policy makers more room to act.

這在政治上可能很難。但低失業率讓決策者有更多的行動空間。

'It's been obvious for a few years that the old idea that 8% growth was necessary to keep unemployment at bay is now completely wrong, if indeed it was ever right,' said Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.

研究公司龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的中國研究主管白安儒(Andrew Batson)說，幾年來的情況表明，以往那種必須將經濟增幅保持在8%以控制失業的看法現在完全是錯誤的，即便以前這種看法可能曾經正確過。

'The question is how much more growth would have to slow for a real problem to emerge in the job market, and honestly no one knows the answer to this. Since China hasn't had sustained sub-8% growth in its post-reform history, there are no parallels to work with,' he said.

他說，問題在於，經濟增幅要放緩到什麼程度纔會導致就業市場真正出現問題，老實說這個問題沒有人知道答案。由於中國自改革開放以來從未出現過增長持續低於8%的情況，因而沒有可類比的情況。

Moreover, economists note that the growth target fails to distinguish between areas that produce large numbers of jobs - like the service sector - and those that do not.

此外，經濟學家們指出，經濟增長目標沒有區分產生大量就業崗位（如服務業）的領域以及另外的領域。

'The rate at which new jobs are created depends as much on the structure of growth as the speed,' said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟學家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)說，新崗位被創造的速度取決於增長結構以及增長速度。

'Not all economic activity is equal in terms of its employment effects - property construction absorbs huge numbers of workers, steelmaking doesn't. So the search for a definitive bottom line for GDP growth in terms of its employment effects is futile.'

他說，在創造就業方面，並非所有經濟活動都是一樣的――房地產建設會吸收大量勞動力，而鍊鋼則不然，因此以就業效果來設定GDP增幅的絕對底線是沒用的。