印度應把握趕超中國經濟的良機

Forecasts this week by the World Bank revived a prediction often made down the years: that growth in one of the Asian emerging market behemoths, India, would outdo that in the other, China. If this comes to pass, the correct reaction would be: about time too. And while in the medium term it would mainly reflect their relative positions in the economic cycle, sustaining it over a longer period will require Narendra Modi’s government in Delhi to play as good a liberalisation game as it talks.

世界銀行(World Bank)最近發表預測，作爲亞洲新興市場大國之一的印度，經濟增長率將超越另一新興市場大國——中國。這是個老掉牙的預測，如果此次得以應驗，那麼正確的反應大概是：也該到時候了。在中期內，印度增長率超過中國可能主要反映出兩國在經濟週期中的相對位置，但假如印度想在長期內維持這一地位，就需要納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)領導下的印度政府在自由化改革中做得跟說得一樣好了。

In truth, it is an indictment of India’s policy making over the decades that the thought of its economy outpacing China is a novelty. At a much earlier stage of development — India’s per capita gross domestic product at purchasing-power-parity levels is less than half China’s — the potential for catch-up should be enormous.

事實上，印度經濟增速超過中國成爲新奇觀點，是對印度過去幾十年政策制定的控訴。印度所處的發展階段比中國早得多（按購買力平價計算，印度人均國內生產總值(GDP)是中國的一半），追趕潛力本應是巨大的。

Yet India, although it has succeeded in creating world-class software and business services companies, has never achieved the broad-based take-off in manufacturing that has lifted so many Asian countries out of poverty. This can be remedied. There is so much low-hanging fruit for economic reformers to pick in areas such as infrastructure, power supply, excess regulation and corruption that the tree is practically bent down to the ground. But political stasis at the centre, and the fact that much of the reform has to be done at the state level, restricts the ability even of a genuine reformist government to effect radical change.

然而，儘管印度已成功創立了世界一流的軟件和商業服務公司，但一直沒能在製造業實現廣泛起飛，而許多亞洲國家當年都是憑藉製造業起飛擺脫了貧困。不過這一點是可以糾正的。在基建、供電、過度監管以及腐敗等領域，可供經濟改革者摘採的低垂之果那麼多，壓得整棵大樹幾乎要趴到地上。中央的政治僵局，以及大多數改革必須在國家層面展開的事實，束縛了政府（哪怕是一個真正想改革的政府）實現徹底變革的能力。

Clearly there is a large cyclical element in India’s current prospects. The monetary policy implemented by Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has been exemplary. Timely increases in interest rates at the end of 2013 swiftly quelled inflation. Accordingly, India’s economy gathered steam last year while many others, such as Turkey and Brazil, had to raise rates sharply in the face of high inflation and weak currencies. This week the RBI judged it had enough headroom to loosen monetary policy.

顯然，印度當前的前景中有一個很大的週期性因素。印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行長拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)實施的貨幣政策堪稱典範。2013年末，他及時加息，迅速平息了通脹。因此印度經濟才能在去年獲得強勁的增長動力，而同時期的土耳其、巴西等許多國家面對高通脹和貨幣走弱都不得不大幅加息。上週印度央行判斷自己有足夠的空間放寬貨幣政策。

With the RBI having made its contribution, however, Mr Modi’s government has yet to show it can match it by implementing plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and privatise a succession of companies. The privatisation campaign has run into difficulty, and India seems likely to miss its deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP this year without hefty spending cuts.

印度央行已作出了自己的貢獻，但莫迪政府在實行削減財政赤字、並私有化一系列企業的計劃上，卻還沒有顯示出與前者旗鼓相當的能力。私有化運動遇到了困難，而且如果不大幅削減開支，印度今年看上去很可能實現不了赤字與GDP比例爲4.1%的目標。

Yet Mr Modi’s liberalisation drive has already encountered fierce opposition from interest groups. A huge strike by coal miners protesting against his plans to deregulate the corrupt and inefficient sector forced the government to agree fresh talks to consider the strikers’ demands. This is a pattern likely to be repeated in industry after industry.

莫迪的自由化運動已遭到利益集團的激烈反對。煤礦工人舉行了一次大罷工，抗議他的計劃對腐敗、低效的煤礦行業放松管制，罷工者迫使政府同意舉行新的談判，考慮他們的訴求。同樣的情況可能在一個又一個行業中再現。

The enduring gains if Mr Modi succeeds could be huge. India has some long-term advantages over China. First, its demographics are considerably better, with a relatively much larger cohort of young people entering the workforce. Second, while China requires great political upheaval to become a prosperous liberal democracy, India has only to improve the imperfect democracy it already has. Third, China is beginning to exhaust the rapid manufacturing phase of expansion, and may find growth harder to come by in the future.

如果莫迪取得成功，長期利益可能是巨大的。與中國相比，印度有幾個長期優勢。首先，印度的人口結構比中國要有利得多，即將進入勞動力市場的年輕人相對要多得多。其次，中國尚需要一場政治劇變才能成爲一個繁榮的自由民主國家，而印度只需改進已有的不完善的民主制度。第三，中國以製造業快速發展爲特點的經濟擴張階段即將走到盡頭，未來可能會發現增長更難實現。

Predictions of India overtaking China have been disappointed so many times over the decades that it is risky, bordering on foolhardy, to make them once more. Yet by virtue of his sweeping election victory last year and the happy macroeconomic position that India is currently in, Mr Modi has one of the best chances in a long while to fulfil a little more of the country’s vast but unused potential.

過去幾十年，印度經濟增速超過中國的預言已經落空過如此很多回，使得再一次作此預言成了件冒險的、甚至近乎魯莽的事。不過，憑藉去年在大選中的壓倒性勝利，以及印度目前樂觀的宏觀經濟形勢，莫迪得到了長久以來的一個最佳機會，可以將印度巨大的、但未得到利用的潛力多發揮出來一些。