印度經濟爲什麼再度陷入困境

In the wake of a global stock market selloff driven by worries over slower growth in emerging markets, the head of India's central bank, Raghuram Rajan, criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve as it pressed on with plans to dial back its monthly bond purchases: "International monetary cooperation has broken down," said Rajan, who added that "the U.S. should worry about the effects of its polices on the rest of the world."

繼新興市場增長放緩的憂慮引發全球性股市拋盤後，印度央行總裁拉吉拉姆•拉詹日前指責堅持執行縮減月度債券購買計劃的美國聯邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve）。“國際貨幣政策合作已經瓦解，”拉詹表示，並且補充說，“美國應當考慮它的政策對全世界其他地區產生的影響。”

Rajan later backtracked, but his remarks highlight the vulnerabilities of India's economy. Theoretically, the Fed's taper, and investors' expectations of a rise in interest rates would cause capital to leave India for the U.S. With higher returns available abroad, investors' demand for India's rupee would fall, further weakening the currency and raising inflation. Already, India's economic growth has declined to 4.5% in 2013 from an average of 9% over the past decade; inflation is high at 9.9%. If India's central bank has to keep raising interest rates to prop up the rupee, it could further impair the nation's economic progress.

拉詹後來改口, 但他此番言論凸顯了印度經濟的脆弱性。理論上，美聯儲“逐步縮減”債券購買量，加上投資者預期利率上漲將導致資本逃離印度，流往美國。由於海外擁有更高的投資回報，投資者對印度盧比的需求將出現下降，進一步壓低盧比和推升通脹。實際上，印度經濟增長率在2013年已經下降到了4.5%，低於過去10年的平均值9%；通脹率已經高達9.9%。如果印度央行必須通過繼續加息來支撐盧比，只會進一步損傷印度的經濟增長步伐。

India's Catch-22, however, is of its own making.

不過，這樣的兩難境地也是印度自己一手締造的。

While economic growth has been robust, its national infrastructure is severely underdeveloped. From crumbling roads, traffic congestion, and poor public transportation to unreliable electricity and water supply and declining educational standards (Microsoft's new CEO Satya Nadella being the exception, not the norm), India's national foundation has failed to keep pace with the financial prosperity of its private sector.

雖然印度經濟增長一直很強勁，但它的全國基礎設施嚴重落後。道路坑坑窪窪、交通堵塞不堪、公共交通服務糟糕，供水供電缺乏穩定，此外，教育標準不斷下降【微軟（Microsoft）新任CEO薩蒂亞納德拉是個例外，並非常態】，印度的國家基礎並沒有跟上私營部門的發展步伐。

Part of this is due to overpopulation and a strain on resources, but the rest is due to a lack of interest both in public and private spheres for developing infrastructure. Industries such as telecommunications and information technology continue to grow, but the benefits of that growth accrue to a small subset of the population, leaving the bulk of the country in poverty and rural limbo. (India's per capita income is the lowest of the BRICs nations. and three out of four people in rural areas live in poverty.)

部分原因是因爲人口過多和資源緊張，其餘則是因爲公共和私營部門對發展基礎設施缺乏興趣。電信和信息科技等行業持續增長，但這些增長只能讓印度人口中的一小部分人獲益，大部分人仍身處貧困和農村被遺忘的角落。（印度的人均收入在金磚四國中最低。而且四分之三的農村人口生活在貧困中。）

China's income per capita isn't that much better, but its small towns have become thriving manufacturing hubs that have allowed the country to maximize the use of its resources and labor force. (The recent contraction in Chinese manufacturing is the result of a tightening in credit markets, not an indictment of the country's growth strategy). Without such critical investments, India's long-term growth could be jeopardized.

中國的人均收入沒有高出太多，但中國的小城鎮已經變成欣欣向榮的製造樞紐，使得中國能夠最大化地利用自己的資源和勞動力。（中國製造業最近的收縮是由於信貸市場收緊造成的，並不是中國經濟增長策略變化的徵兆。缺乏這樣一些關鍵的投資，印度經濟的長期增長可能會受到阻礙。

As for inflation, India's rapid growth has caused prices to soar, but since that wealth is concentrated in very few hands, average Indians cannot afford the higher prices. In response, the central bank has raised interest rates, but that will only lower the tide for all boats. Higher borrowing costs hurt business profitability but won't stop inflation as long as price hikes are also being fueled by another source: corruption.

談到通脹，印度的高速增長已經造成物價飆升，但由於財富集中在非常少數的一些人手中，普通印度人無法承擔物價的上漲。作爲對策，印度央行調高了利率，但這隻會降低對所有經濟領域的推動力。借貸成本的上升會侵蝕企業利潤率，但不能遏制通脹，只要另外一個源頭，也就是腐敗，仍在推高物價。

Last year, India ranked 94th out of 176 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index. An even bigger problem is that while the business community complains bitterly about government corruption, it also exacerbates it through its willingness to pay bribes to bypass the law. Large corruption scandals involving major companies in telecommunications, construction, coal mining, and other industries are commonplace, and a 2011 study conducted by KPMG suggests that the private sector actually induces corruption in India, at least to some degree.

去年，印度在透明國際（Transparency International）清廉指數（Corruption Perception Index）調查的176個國家中排名第94位。一個更大的問題是雖然商界對於政府的腐敗行爲怨聲載道，但他們仍然願意藉助賄賂繞過法律，結果導致腐敗狀況進一步惡化。涉及電信、建築、煤礦和其他行業大公司的腐敗醜聞司空見慣。畢馬威（KPMG）2011年進行的一項研究顯示，至少在某種程度上，私營部門實際上引起了印度的腐敗。

The result is a culture of venality that affects even basic government services and increases the cost of doing business. This raises the price of everything, including produced goods, services, electricity, water, and telephone service to create de facto inflation. It also discourages foreign investment, especially from institutions in the U.S. and Europe, who dislike paying bribes and worry about violating anti-corruption laws in their home country. All this, in turn, puts even more pressure on the currency.

結果是貪腐文化甚至影響到了基本的政府服務，增加了商業經營成本。這種情況擡高了所有東西的價格，包括製成品、服務、電力、水和電話服務，造成了事實上的通脹。它也阻礙了外國投資，特別是來自美國和歐洲的機構投資。這些機構不喜賄賂，擔心會違反本國的反腐敗法。所有這些都給印度盧比帶來了更大的壓力。

The Indian economy will certainly keep growing, if for no other reason than pent-up demand, and Indian companies will continue to compete aggressively on the world stage, but if Rajan wants to curtail inflation and maximize that growth at the same time, then his government must address the problem of corruption properly, invest in the infrastructure of the nation, and expand the utilization of its workforce. Monetary policy alone -- in India or in the U.S. -- cannot solve these problems.

如果考慮到現在被抑制的需求，印度經濟肯定還會保持增長，印度公司也將繼續在國際舞臺上競爭出擊，但如果拉詹想在抑制通脹的同時將經濟增長最大化，印度政府就必須解決好腐敗問題，投資國內基礎設施，提高勞動力利用率。不論是印度、還是美國，單憑貨幣政策並不能解決這些問題。