印度的非正統經濟政策實驗

Well before India’s surprise ban on using 86 per cent of its cash supply, rightwing circles were abuzz with speculation about prime minister Narendra Modi taking such a step to fight so-called black money.

在印度令人吃驚地禁止其86%的現金供應流通之前，右翼人士就在紛紛猜測印度總理納倫德拉.莫迪(Narendra Modi)會採取如此手段打擊所謂的黑錢。

Mainstream economists paid little heed to the chatter — deeming it too preposterous to take seriously, given the economic damage it would inflict.

考慮到此舉將給經濟造成的損害，主流經濟學家對這種傳聞幾乎未給予什麼關注，因爲認爲這種做法太過荒謬、不值得認真對待。

But with India now reeling from the acute cash crunch triggered by the decision to cancel its old Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes, many economists and observers are debating what other unorthodox economic policy experiments may lie ahead.

但現在，印度正在經歷500盧比和1000盧比舊紙幣被取消所引發的嚴峻現金短缺局面，許多經濟學家和觀察家正在討論該國還可能實施哪些非正統的經濟政策實驗。

Mr Modi is expected to intensify his campaign against black money, with his next target likely to be property purchased with illicit wealth and not registered in the true owners’ names.

莫迪預計將加強他的反黑錢運動，他的下一個目標可能是使用非法財富購買並且未登記在真正所有者名下的房地產。

Speculation is rife that he is also seriously considering other dramatic and unusual reform measures — including possibly abolishing income tax and replacing it with a banking transaction tax.

有很多人推測，他還在認真考慮其他驚人的、非同尋常的改革措施，包括可能取消所得稅並代之以銀行交易稅。

The long-term question is whether [demonetisation] represents a willing shift from conventional economic policy, Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA.

長期而言的問題是，（去貨幣化）是否代表着一種遠離常規經濟政策的意願。

After this pArticular step, I can’t rule out anything.

里昂證券(CLSA)高級經濟學家拉傑夫.馬立克(Rajeev Malik)說，在這個特定措施之後，我不能排除任何可能性。

The [ February] budget will pretty much tell us whether this is a starting point for something more unconventional.

（2月）預算將在很大程度上告訴我們，這是否是更加非常規的政策的起點。

Mr Modi has said nothing publicly about the origin of the idea of demonetisation — a measure virtually without parallel in contemporary economic history — but few believe New Delhi’s official narrative that it was simply acting on the central bank’s advice.

莫迪沒有公開談論去貨幣化的想法來源於哪裏——當代經濟史上幾乎沒有類似的政策——但很少有人相信新德里方面給出的、它只是在按照央行建議行事的說法。

Instead, the measure appears to be the brainchild of a little known Pune-based organisation,

相反，這項措施似乎是一個不甚知名的、位於浦那(Pune)的機構Arthakranti的智慧結晶。

called Arthakranti, which loosely translates as economic revolution.

Arthakranti的大致意思是經濟革命。

This group is seeking radical changes to India’s revenue-collecting mechanism.

該機構正尋求徹底改變印度的財政收入機制。

Its volunteers — founded and led by former small businessman Anil Bokil — have lobbied politicians for years,

該機構由前小企業家阿尼爾.柏吉爾(Anil Bokil)創立並領導，其志願者已遊說政客們多年。

and their quest brought them into contact with Mr Modi back when he was still chief minister of Gujarat.

他們的訴求讓他們與當時還是古吉拉特邦(Gujarat)首席部長的莫迪建立了聯繫。

Arthakranti advocates restricting cash use and replacing all of India’s taxes with a single, banking transaction tax of 2 per cent on every transaction through the financial system.

Arthakranti主張限制現金使用，並把印度的所有稅項用單一的銀行交易稅代替，對每一筆經由金融系統的交易徵稅2%。

The recent removal of vast amounts of cash from the economy could, some analysts think, be the start of a sustained effort to realise Arthakranti’s vision.

一些分析人士認爲，最近把大量現金從經濟中清除出去，是實現Arthakranti願景的持續努力的起點。

It seems to appeal to a lot of very radical thinkers, says Saurabh Mukherjea, chief executive of Ambit Capital.

這似乎吸引了許多非常激進的思想家，界線資本(Ambit Capital)首席執行官索拉布.慕克吉(Saurabh Mukherjea)說，

By reducing cash, you force everybody into the banking system, and every transaction gets taxed.

通過減少現金，你迫使每個人進入銀行系統，每次交易都會被徵稅。

If you don’t spend, and don’t transact, you don’t pay tax.

如果你不花錢，不交易，你就不納稅。

Arthakranti activists contend their proposals would end the harassment of salaried employees —

Arthakranti的活動人士主張，他們的建議將終結腐敗的所得稅官員對工薪族的騷擾。

who account for most of India’s 12.5m income taxpayers — by corrupt income tax officers.

印度的1250萬所得稅納稅者中，工薪族佔絕大部分。

They also believe the simplified system would curb pervasive evasion.

他們還認爲，簡化制度將遏制普遍的逃稅行爲。

People in India are not bothered about taxation.

印度人煩惱的不是稅。

They have a problem with the hassles of taxation, but that will be reduced by this system, said Adarsh Dhavan, an Arthkranti volunteer.

他們煩惱的是稅制的繁瑣，但該制度將改善這一問題，Arthkranti志願者阿達什.達萬(Adarsh Dhavan)稱，

If the base is broader, the percentage of taxation would be very less, and people would not mind paying it.

如果基數擴大，稅率就會大幅降低，人們不會介意交稅。

Brazil imposed a banking transaction tax for a decade from the late 1990s.

從上世紀90年代末開始，巴西推行了10年的銀行交易稅。

Yet later assessments concluded the taxes tended to drive transactions from the banking system, reducing efficiency and leading to higher interest rates.

不過後來的評估總結稱，這種稅往往使得銀行系統的交易減少、效率降低並導致利率升高。

Still, the idea has already won influential supporters from the politically-powerful yoga guru Baba Ramdev to the former editor of Forbes India, R. Jaganathan.

不過，該想法已經贏得了很多具有影響力的支持者，從擁有強大政治影響力的瑜伽大師巴巴.拉姆德夫(Baba Ramdev)、到《福布斯》(Forbes)印度版前總編輯R.賈甘納坦(R. Jaganathan)。

Mr Jaganathan, editorial director of the right-leaning Indian magazine Swarajya,

賈甘納坦現任印度右翼雜誌《自治》(Swarajya)的編輯主任。

recently wrote that income tax was not suitable for Indian culture, given its diversity and deep-rooted mindset that sees taxpaying as a matter of individual judgment and negotiation.

他最近寫道，考慮到印度的多元化以及印度人認爲納稅事關個人判斷與商議這一根深蒂固的觀念，所得稅不適合印度文化。

Nobody in the world likes paying income taxes, but Indians are particularly loath to do so, he wrote recently.

世界上沒人喜歡交所得稅，但印度人格外牴觸交所得稅，他最近寫道。

Mainstream economists are doubtful that Mr Modi will embark on dramatic tax policy changes in the February budget, given the disruption already caused by the cash ban.

考慮到突然取消大面值紙幣已經造成了動盪，主流經濟學家對莫迪是否將在2月的預算中着手進行稅收政策的重大改革抱懷疑態度。

Indirect tax is also considered highly regressive — adding to the tax burden on the poor — and economists also warn it could erode manufacturing competitiveness.

間接稅也被認爲具有高度的累退性，會增加窮人的稅務負擔，同時經濟學家還警告這可能會損害製造業的競爭力。