烏克蘭革命光環因經濟困境失色

A year ago, Artem, a 19-year-old student, joined the mass protests in Kiev that toppled Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s president. This week he was on the streets again but inspired by more prosaic complaints: rising heating prices, spiralling inflation and a collapsing currency.

一年前，19歲的學生艾頓(Artem)在基輔加入了推翻烏克蘭總統維克多•亞努科維奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的大規模抗議活動。本週，他再次走上街頭，但動機是更爲瑣碎的生活抱怨：不斷高漲的供暖價格、螺旋式上升的通脹以及匯率暴跌的貨幣。

“I was here on Maidan [Square] a year ago taking part in the revolution, but not for such deep economic pain. Frankly, our people simply can’t swallow it,” said Artem, joined by 1,000 other protesters outside a Kiev mayor’s office now occupied by Vitali Klitschko, the boxer turned protest leader.

“一年前，我在獨立(Maidan)廣場上參加革命，但不是爲了如此深切的經濟痛苦。坦白講，我們的人民現在根本無法承受這種痛苦，”艾頓稱。他與1000多人一起，在昔日的抗議活動領袖、現在成了基輔市長的前拳擊手維塔利•克利欽科(Vitali Klitschko)的辦公室外抗議。

Volodymyr, 58, said that of his 2,500 hryvnia ($90) monthly pension, 70 per cent went to utilities and basic costs, up from 30 per cent a year ago. “If they raise [heating bills] again by the 40 per cent that is planned, what will I eat?” he asked.

58歲的弗拉基米爾(Volodymyr)稱，在他每個月2500格里夫納（合90美元）的退休金中，70%都用於交水電燃氣費和基本花銷，而1年前這部分僅佔30%。“如果他們再按計劃將取暖費提高40%，我拿什麼吃飯？”他問道。

The protests reflect how the euphoria of Ukraine’s revolution has given way to a harsh economic reality. The hryvnia yesterday touched a record low of 33.78 to the dollar after a poorly communicated central bank move to tighten restrictions on currency trading spooked markets. The bank later backtracked.

抗議反映出烏克蘭革命成功引發的欣喜已經讓位於殘酷的經濟現實。不久前，烏克蘭央行收緊了對外匯交易的限制，這一溝通糟糕的舉動驚嚇了市場，格里夫納兌美元的匯率本週四一度觸及1美元兌33.78格里夫納的低點，創下了新低紀錄。烏克蘭央行隨後收回了禁令。

Anecdotal reports suggest some Ukrainians are panic-buying basic goods to guard against further devaluation of the hryvnia, which traded at eight to the dollar before the anti-Yanukovich protests began in late 2013.

坊間傳聞似乎表明，一些烏克蘭人正在恐慌地搶購日常用品，以緩解格里夫納進一步貶值帶來的影響。在2013年底反對亞努科維奇的抗議開始前，格里夫納兌美元匯率爲1美元兌8格里夫納。

Yesterday’s protest was small compared with those that ousted the president last year and showed signs of being paid for by opponents of Kiev’s new, pro-western government. Still, many of the sentiments seemed genuine — an ominous sign that larger crowds and more instability could emerge in the war-torn country should the economic crisis spiral out of control.

與去年推翻亞努科維奇的抗議相比，本週四的抗議規模並不大，而且有跡象表明受到了反對勢力的收買。反對勢力不滿目前親西方的烏克蘭新政府。可話說回來，抗議中流露出的許多情緒似乎是真實的——這是一種不祥的徵兆：一旦經濟危機失控，這個飽受戰亂的國家會遭遇更大規模的抗議和更多不穩定。

The government is struggling simultaneously to keep control of eastern regions in the face of an uprising by Russian-backed separatists, prevent economic meltdown and push through sweeping reforms. Those reforms will benefit the country longer term but also cause more short-term pain for many.

烏克蘭政府要同時應對多個挑戰：面對俄羅斯撐腰的分裂主義者所製造的叛亂，保持對東部地區的控制；防止經濟崩潰；推行全面改革。這些改革措施長期而言將造福國家，但也對很多人造成了較大的短期痛苦。

Ukraine’s output shrank by up to 7.5 per cent last year after Russia annexed Crimea and fomented war in eastern regions that once accounted for about one-sixth of its economy. Billions of dollars fled the country. State coffers are almost empty, with foreign exchange reserves down to one month of import cover. With bad debts mounting, one foreign investor calls the state of the banking system catastrophic.

在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞地區並在烏克蘭東部（曾在烏克蘭經濟中佔比1/6）煽起戰火後，去年烏克蘭的產出萎縮7.5%。鉅額資金逃離該國。國庫接近空虛，外匯儲備下降至只夠覆蓋1個月的進口。壞賬不斷堆積，一名外國投資者形容烏克蘭銀行體系的現狀是災難性的。

The government of Arseniy Yatseniuk, prime minister, hoped a staff-level agreement on a new, four-year, $17.5bn International Monetary Fund bailout — reached on the same day

烏克蘭總理阿爾謝尼•亞採紐克(Arseniy Yatseniuk)領導的政府希望，就國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)爲期四年、總值175億美元的紓困計劃達成的工作層協議——兩週前烏克蘭東部最新停火協議簽署的當天達成——能夠穩定事態。但是，目前停火協議尚未實施，IMF的第一筆資金直到下個月才能發放。投資者擔心這並不足以解決問題。

the latest ceasefire in east Ukraine was signed two weeks ago — would stabilise matters. But the ceasefire has yet to be implemented and the first IMF money will not arrive until next month. Investors fret it is not enough.

烏克蘭財政部長納塔莉•傑里斯科(Natalie Jaresko)反駁稱，這筆紓困資金“相對GDP的比重是IMF援助項目史上最大的一筆”。傑里斯科是一位幹勁十足的美籍烏克蘭裔，曾在美國國務院工作，也曾做過基金經理。她稱，市場過分估計了可能發生的情況和烏克蘭所需的幫助。“我確實相信我們得到的援助足以恢復信心——在其他所有條件不變的情況下，”她稱，“關鍵在於重建儲備，重建市場對銀行體系的信心。”

Natalie Jaresko, finance minister, counters that the bailout “as a percentage of GDP is one of the largest IMF programmes in history”. Ms Jaresko, an energetic Ukrainian-American who has worked both at the US state department and as a fund manager, says the market overestimated what was possible and what was needed. “I do believe that the support that we have received is sufficient to restore confidence, all other things being equal,” she says. “It’s about rebuilding reserves, it’s about rebuilding confidence in the banking system.”

美國、歐盟(EU)和世界銀行(World Bank)等其它援助方將另行提供數十億美元的資金，來補充IMF的紓困計劃。烏克蘭還希望與債權人達成“高達150億美元”的債務重組。

The US, EU, World Bank and others are due to supplement the IMF funding with billions more. Ukraine is also targeting “up to $15bn” in a debt restructuring with bondholders.

然而，傑里斯科向英國《金融時報》表示，恢復信心不僅在於紓困資金：還要加強法治、解決無處不在的腐敗問題並改善商業環境，用她的話來說就是“在這裏推動實實在在的改變”。推翻亞努科維奇的抗議者曾經要求的這些改革措施，如今成了國際放貸方提出的條件。但是，戰爭和經濟低迷使得實現這些改革甚至更具挑戰性。

But restoring confidence, Ms Jaresko told the Financial Times, is not just about the bailout: it is about reinforcing the rule of law, tackling ubiquitous corruption and improving the business climate or, as she puts it, delivering “real and true change here”. Such reforms were demanded by the protesters who ousted Mr Yanukovich and are now a condition of international lenders. But war and the economic slump have made them even more challenging to achieve.

當務之急是解決能源行業的問題，國有天然氣銷售壟斷企業——烏克蘭石油天然氣公司(Naftogaz)仍在以遠低於成本的價格向家庭提供天然氣。這種實質上的補貼推高了烏克蘭的預算赤字，也爲腐敗套利計劃創造了機會。

A pressing priority is the energy sector, where Naftogaz, the state gas distribution monopoly, still supplies households at far below the cost price. What is in effect a subsidy pushes up Ukraine’s budget deficit and creates opportunities for corrupt arbitrage schemes.

在IMF的壓力之下，烏克蘭去年將天然氣價格提高了約50%。這促使消費者節約能源——這是另一個需要優先考慮的問題。

Under IMF pressure, Ukraine raised domestic gas prices by about 50 per cent last year. That prompted consumers to save energy — another priority.

但是，就美元收入而言，格里夫納貶值完全抵消了能源提價的效果。現在政府承諾進一步提高價格，以確保烏克蘭石油天然氣公司最遲在2017年4月達到收支平衡。

But the hryvnia’s fall more than cancelled out the effect of the tariff rise in terms of dollar receipts. Now the government is committed to further tariff rises to ensure Naftogaz fully covers its costs by April 2017.

儘管最貧困的客戶將得到針對性補助的保護，但參加抗議的很多退休金領取者抱怨稱，生活成本增加以及貨幣貶值會抵消這些補助。

Even though the poorest customers are to be protected by targeted subsidies, many pensioners at yesterday’s protest complained that rising costs and currency devaluation would wipe out such benefits.

抗議活動的組織者、身爲教師的尤里•佩倫丘克(Yuri Perenchuk)稱：“從IMF和西方國家獲得的數十億美元所謂援助不會惠及我們普通人。”

Yuri Perenchuk, a teacher and protest organiser, says: “All these billions of so-called assistance from the IMF and the west are not making their way to us regular people.”

剛剛從“太多的青年接連倒下”的前線返回的35歲士兵康斯坦丁(Konstantyn)的態度更絕望：“我認爲格里夫納以及我國的整個經濟都在崩潰。”