世界盃狂歡難掩巴西經濟困境

Brazil's win over Cameroon on Monday should prolong the festive atmosphere that has persisted here since the World Cup kicked off earlier this month.

週一桑巴軍團大勝喀麥隆隊應該會延續本月早些時候世界盃開賽以來巴西舉國上下的歡慶氣氛。

Brazilians may need all the distraction they can get. Unbeknown to most soccer fans, economists have slashed their forecasts for Brazil's growth in each of the past four weeks, while inflation looks to remain painfully high through 2015.

巴西人可能需要這樣的歡樂氣氛來分散他們的注意力。大部分球迷不知道的是，過去四周經濟學家連續下調了對巴西經濟增長的預期，整個2015年巴西通脹率似乎都將維持在令人痛苦的高位。

'This combination of low growth and pressured inflation makes for a policy makers' nightmare,' economists at Santander said in a report this week. Alberto Ramos, the chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs, said last week that Brazil's economy seems to be 'gravitating towards a stagflation scenario.'

西班牙國家銀行(Santander)經濟學家在本週的一份報告中寫道，低增長與高通脹並存成爲了決策者的“噩夢”。高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席拉丁美洲經濟學家拉莫斯(Alberto Ramos)上週表示，巴西經濟似乎正在走向滯脹。

Brazil's 4-1 thrashing of Cameroon put the Seleção in the knockout stage of the Cup, where it will try to string together four consecutive victories for the championship. The hosts are the odds-on favorite to win, but sport bookies still put their chances at just one in three.

巴西4比1力克喀麥隆使得桑巴軍團晉級世界盃16強，它將爭取在淘汰賽中續寫之前三場不敗的輝煌。作爲此次世界盃的主辦國，巴西奪冠呼聲很高，但是博彩公司認爲巴西奪冠的機率也只有三分之一。

'We really haven't taken as much money for Brazil at this stage in the tournament as we might have expected,' says Alex Donohue, a spokesman for London-based bookie Ladbrokes. He said the early ouster of both England and defending World Cup champions Spain have helped the odds of most other teams that advanced beyond the tournament's group stage.

總部位於倫敦的博彩公司Ladbrokes的發言人多諾霍(Alex Donohue)稱，世界盃比到現在這個階段，押巴西贏的資金並沒有他們原先預料的那麼多。他說，英格蘭隊和世界盃衛冕冠軍西班牙隊的過早出局降低了其他小組賽出線的多數球隊的賠率。

Costa Rica's chances of winning, for instance, have improved from 4,000-to-1 to just 66-to-1 thanks to unexpected victories over Uruguay and Italy, Mr. Donohue says.

多諾霍說，例如，由於意外擊敗了烏拉圭和意大利，哥斯達黎加奪冠的賠率已經從4,000:1降低至66:1。

The tournament has proved to be a happy refuge for Brazilians who, just a few weeks ago, were so displeased with their country's direction that they told pollsters it was a bad idea to host the competition. As has happened countless times in dozens of countries, common support for a soccer team has drawn a nation's attention away from a toxic political environment and a damaged economy.

本次比賽已經證明給巴西人帶來了難得的歡樂；僅在幾周之前，他們還對國家的方向非常不滿，以至於在民調中稱舉辦世界盃是個壞主意。就像在許多國家無數次發生過的那樣，對一隻足球隊的共同支持使得人們的注意力離開有毒的政治環境和糟糕的經濟狀況。

Elimination from the first World Cup it has hosted in 64 years would bring a hard reality check to Brazil. Earlier this month, a public-opinion study by the Pew Research Center showed that 61% of Brazilians thought hosting the tournament would hurt their country by taking money away from public services.

本月早些時候，Pew Research Center的民調顯示，61%的巴西人認爲舉辦世界盃對本國不利，因爲錢拿去辦比賽了，花在公共服務上的就少了。

'If Brazil wins, a lot of what was said--about overspending on stadiums and other things--will be forgotten,' says Erialdo Rosario, 52, a small-business owner. 'If they lose, it's another story.'

52歲的小業主羅薩里奧(Erialdo Rosario)稱，如果巴西贏了，那些有關在體育館和其他方面過度支出的非議將被忘記；如果巴西輸了，那麼情況就完全不一樣了。

Brazil's economy is seen expanding by a paltry 1.16% this year, according to a weekly central bank consensus survey of 100 economists published Monday. Inflation was seen ending the year at 6.46%.

週一發佈的央行每週調查顯示，100名經濟學家普遍預計今年巴西經濟的增長率僅爲1.16%。而經濟學家對今年年底的通脹率預期卻高達6.46%。

Experts say fiscal austerity is Brazil's best bet to bring inflation down. But such a move would also be likely to dent growth, and in an election year that has already been plagued by striking public-sector workers seeking higher pay, the chances of that look slim.

專家稱，實施財政緊縮措施是巴西壓低通脹率的最佳選擇。但這樣做也可能會抑制經濟增長。今年是大選年，經濟增長已經受到了尋求加薪的公共部門工人罷工的拖累，因此政府實施財政緊縮措施的可能性似乎不大。

President Dilma Rousseff in May announced a 10% increase to the government's hallmark social program, known as 'Bolsa Familia,' while Finance Minister Guido Mantega last week extended a pair of business tax-credit programs.

巴西總統羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)曾在5月份宣佈，將把政府標誌性社保項目“家庭津貼計劃”(Bolsa Familia)的規模擴大10%。該國財政部長曼特加(Guido Mantega)上週延長了兩個企業稅收減免方案的實施期限。

Pedro Barbosa, a partner at Rio de Janeiro-based hedge fund STK Capital, said the measures are akin to driving a car up a hill and then shifting into fourth gear.

位於里約熱內盧的對衝基金STK Capital的合夥人巴爾博薩(Pedro Barbosa)稱，這些措施就好像開車上山，然後把車速提到四檔。

'The government's economic model has clearly run its course and has left a very bad mix of high inflation, low growth and high spending,' Mr. Barbosa said. 'Today's game in Brasilia was beautiful, a great show. But it was almost like a dream.'

巴爾博薩稱，顯然政府的經濟模式已經走到盡頭，現在的情況是高通脹、低增長、高支出；今天在巴西利亞進行的比賽非常精彩，但感覺幾乎是一場夢。