美元升息加大中國經濟管理難度

For the second year running, the US Federal Reserve has rudely interrupted the Chinese Communist party’s annual economic planning meeting, which ends today.

美聯儲(Fed)連續第二年不客氣地打斷中國共產黨的年度經濟規劃會議。今年的中央經濟工作會議將於今日結束。

During last year’s Central Economic Work Conference, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a decade. This week the US central bank not only raised rates again but also hinted at three more increases next year, adding to pressure on Chinese officials already struggling to contain capital flight.

去年中央經濟工作會議期間，美聯儲進行了10年來的首次加息。本週，美聯儲不僅再度上調利率，還暗示明年再加息三次，這加大了本已疲於遏止資本外流的中國官員的壓力。

The rise and the prospect of further tightening next year mark a potential turning point for the world’s two largest economies. Over the past decade, high yields compared with rock-bottom Fed interest rates have drawn foreign capital into China. This fuelled the renminbi’s decade-long, 37 per cent appreciation against the dollar, which peaked in January 2014.

對全球最大兩個經濟體而言，此次加息和明年進一步收緊的前景標誌着一個潛在轉折點。過去10年裏，相對美聯儲極低利率的高收益率吸引了大量境外資本進入中國。這推動了人民幣對美元在10年裏升值37%，在2014年1月見頂。

But those “hot money” flows are now moving in reverse as the Sino-US rate differential narrows. Aggressive Fed tightening could even one day cause the differential to flip, with bigger yields potentially on offer in the US.

但隨着中美兩國利差縮小，這些“熱錢”如今正反向流動。美聯儲激進的收緊行動有朝一日甚至可能導致利差反轉，美國提供更高的收益率。

As such, an already delicate balancing act for Beijing has grown still more difficult as Chinese officials try to stem the renminbi’s fall against the dollar without choking growth or raising Chinese companies’ already high debt burdens.

因此，北京方面本已脆弱的平衡之舉將變得更加困難——中國官員試圖在不扼殺經濟增長或增加中國企業本已沉重的債務負擔的情況下，遏止人民幣對美元貶值。

Some analysts think the People’s Bank of China may raise rates itself — something it has not done since 2011.

一些分析人士認爲，中國人民銀行(PBoC)可能選擇加息——這將是自2011年以來首次。

Jeremy Stevens, an economist at Standard Bank in Beijing, says there is now an “outside risk” of a rate rise next year by the PBoC. The catalyst for such a counter-intuitive decision — China’s economy is growing at its slowest annual pace in a quarter of a century — could be the renminbi, which has fallen more than 6 per cent against the dollar this year with further to go.

標準銀行(Standard Bank)駐北京經濟學家傑里米.斯蒂芬斯(Jeremy Stevens)表示，現在的“外圍風險”之一是中國央行明年加息。中國經濟增速已降至25年來最低水平，這樣一個與正常預期相反的決定的催化劑可能是人民幣，今年以來人民幣對美元貶值逾6%，且貶值還在繼續。

Yesterday the PBoC set the renminbi’s daily dollar “reference rate” at 6.93. “It wouldn’t shock me if the renminbi is at 7.3 or 7.4 by March,” Mr Stevens says. “At some point they have to decide to do something to support the currency.”

昨日，中國央行將人民幣對美元“參考匯率”設在1美元兌6.93元人民幣。“如果到明年3月，人民幣對美元貶值至1美元兌7.3或7.4元人民幣，我不會感到震驚，”斯蒂芬斯說，“在某一個時間點，他們不得不決定出手支撐人民幣。”

The Fed’s move is a reminder of the many risks Beijing faces in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in last month’s US presidential election.

美聯儲此舉提醒世人，在唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)上月出乎意料贏得美國總統大選之後，北京面臨着諸多風險。

Most assessments of “Trump risk” in Beijing have focused on the president-elect’s disregard for the “One China” policy that has been a central pillar of Sino-US relations for more than four decades.

北京方面對“特朗普風險”的多數評估迄今都聚焦於這位當選總統對“一箇中國”政策的無視，該項政策是40多年來中美關係的中心支柱。

But the Fed’s suggestion that there could be three further rate rises next year shows that, for China, the greatest shocks from Mr Trump’s victory may instead stem from the inflationary consequences of his promised tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus.

但美聯儲明年可能再加息三次表明，對中國來說，特朗普勝選帶來的最大沖擊可能源於他承諾的減稅和基礎設施刺激計劃的通脹後果。

Even before the economic ramifications of Mr Trump’s victory began to be digested, Beijing moved last month to stem outflows by implementing a series of capital controls. In its attempt to keep the renminbi from falling too far, too fast against the dollar, China’s central bank has also been selling down its forex reserves, which have fallen 25 per cent to $3tn since early 2014.

即使在特朗普當選的經濟影響還沒開始得到消化之前，北京方面上月已實施一系列資本管制措施以遏止資本外流。爲了讓人民幣兌美元不致跌得太多、太快，中國央行也一直在拋售外匯儲備。自2014年初以來，中國外匯儲備已經減少了25%，至3萬億美元。

As bond and currency markets factor in expectations of higher US growth and inflation under Mr Trump, the pressure is continuing to build.

隨着債市和匯市計入特朗普上任後更高的美國經濟增長和通脹預期，上述壓力仍在增加。

“The US yield is moving up, putting pressure on renminbi and capital outflows,” says Wang Tao, China economist at UBS in Hong Kong. “That tightens domestic liquidity, which the PBoC has not fully offset, partly out of concerns about the exchange rate.”

瑞銀(UBS)駐香港中國經濟學家汪濤表示：“美國收益率正在上升，給人民幣和資本外流帶來壓力。這收緊了國內流動性，而中國央行尚未完全抵消這種情況，部分原因是擔心匯率。”

The PBoC has guided Chinese money-market rates higher in recent weeks, partly in anticipation of the Fed move. “Monetary conditions in China have tightened without a rate hike,” notes Chen Long at Gavekal Dragonomics.

中國央行最近幾周在指引中國貨幣市場利率上升，部分原因是預期美聯儲將加息。龍洲經訊(GaveKal Dragonomics)的陳龍指出：“中國的貨幣狀況在沒有加息的情況下就已經收緊了。”

Others are calling for more dramatic action by the central bank. This month Sheng Songcheng, a PBoC adviser, told a forum in Beijing that the priority of monetary policy should be to boost market confidence in the exchange rate. He argued that the central bank should consider interest-rate rises to achieve this.

其他市場人士則呼籲中國央行採取更爲戲劇性的行動。中國央行顧問盛鬆成本月在北京一個論壇上表示，貨幣政策的重點應該是提振市場對匯率的信心。他認爲中國央行應考慮加息來做到這一點。

Zhu Ning, professor of finance at Tsinghua University, says expectations of a Chinese rate increase have “become more mainstream” over recent months, principally because of “the strength of the US [economic] revival and the tempo of Fed rate rises”.

清華大學金融學教授朱寧表示，近幾個月來，中國加息預期“變得更加主流”，主要是因爲“美國經濟復甦的力度以及美聯儲加息進度。”

Mr Zhu also points to inflationary pressures building at home. Some analysts expect that Chinese producer price inflation, after years of deflation, could be as high as 5 per cent by March.

朱寧還指出，國內通脹壓力不斷累積。一些分析師預計，經過多年通縮後，中國的工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)到明年3月可能漲至高達5%。