與普京打交道的四點建議大綱
Vladimir Putin’s regime describes itself by its grudges.
弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)政權在描述自我時帶着滿腔怨恨。
The Russian president harbours a lengthy list of grievances and imagined slights, reaching from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the expansion of the EU and Nato, to US military interventions in the Middle East.
這位俄羅斯總統懷揣着一份冗長的清單，記錄着他的不滿和想象中受到的怠慢——從蘇聯(Soviet Union)解體到歐盟(EU)和北約(Nato)的擴張、再到美國對中東的軍事幹預。
The most personally wounding, though, comprised a few words uttered a couple of years ago by US President Barack Obama.
不過，最帶有個人色彩的傷害是幾年前美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)說過的一些話。
Mr Putin craves respect.
普京渴望得到尊重。
Russia, Mr Obama said, was no more than a regional power whose revanchist military intervention in Ukraine was evidence of weakness rather than a demonstration of prowess.
奧巴馬說，俄羅斯不過是一個地區強國，它在烏克蘭復仇式的軍事幹預是軟弱、而非強大的表現。
Russian actions were a problem, but not the biggest threat to America’s national security.
俄羅斯的舉動帶來麻煩，但並不是美國國家安全面臨的最大威脅。
You could hear the screams of anguish in the Kremlin.
你能聽到克里姆林宮撕心裂肺的怒吼。
The assessment was at once right and wrong.
該評價既對也不對。
By almost every metric — economic, demographic, social or technological — Russia faces inexorable decline.
幾乎在所有方面——經濟、人口、社會或科技——俄羅斯都面臨着無可挽回的衰落。
The US president, though, underestimated Moscow’s willingness to use its still formidable military.
不過，奧巴馬低估了俄羅斯使用其仍然令人生畏的軍事力量的意願。
Mr Putin is a leader ready to take risks at a time when the west prizes caution above all else.
當西方對謹慎的重視高於其他一切時，普京是那種隨時準備冒險的領導人。
Mr Obama missed, too, the link between adventurism and hurt national pride.
奧巴馬還忽視了冒險主義和受傷害的民族自豪感之間的關聯。
If Mr Putin wants anything on the global stage, it is to be treated as the leader of a power that can sit down as an equal with the US and China.
如果說普京想要在國際舞臺上獲得某種東西的話，那便是被當作能與美國和中國平起平坐的強國的領導人對待。
Barring a political earthquake and a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump, November’s US election will not change the essential parameters of the relationship between Russia and the west.
除非發生一場政治地震、共和黨總統候選人唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)獲勝，11月的美國大選不會改變俄羅斯和西方關係的基本參數。
The reset offered by Mr Obama at the beginning of his presidency has been lost to the annexation of Crimea, the occupation of eastern Ukraine and the raining down of Russian bombs on the Syrian city of Aleppo.
奧巴馬在上任初期提出的重啓美俄關係的策略，敗給了俄羅斯的一系列舉動——吞併克里米亞、侵佔烏克蘭東部地區以及對敘利亞阿勒頗市(Aleppo)狂轟濫炸。
True, the Russian president still has admirers in the west.
不錯，西方仍然有普京的崇拜者。
They extend beyond Mr Trump.
不光是特朗普。
Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Britain’s Labour party, has spent a political lifetime marching against wars fought by the west.
英國工黨領袖傑里米.科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)在整個政治生涯裏都在反對西方進行的戰爭。
He cannot bring himself to condemn the Russian slaughter of civilians in Aleppo.
他做不到指責俄羅斯對阿勒頗平民的屠殺。
He is in the company of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front, and pro-Moscow fascist parties in Hungary and Greece.
和他一樣的還有法國國民陣線(National Front)領導人馬琳.勒龐(Marine Le Pen)，以及匈牙利和希臘親俄羅斯的法西斯主義政黨。
Far left thus meets far right.
極左翼和極右翼在這點上不謀而合。
It is evident to just about everyone else, however, that the interventions in Ukraine and Syria are expressions of a broader Kremlin strategy.
然而，幾乎其他所有人都清楚，俄羅斯在烏克蘭和敘利亞的軍事幹預是克里姆林宮一項更廣泛戰略的表現。
Regime survival and hostility towards the west are two sides of the same coin.
維繫政權和敵視西方是同一枚硬幣的兩面。
Support for populist parties of left and right in Europe, the subversion of democracy in formerly communist states and the cyber attacks on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign are all of the same piece.
支持歐洲或左或右的民粹主義政黨、顛覆前共產主義國家的民主制度、以及對希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)總統競選團隊發動網絡攻擊，本質都一樣。
Mr Putin’s target is the liberal international order.
普京的目標是自由國際秩序。
He wants a great power carve-up that restores Russian suzerainty over its near-abroad and flatters its relevance in global affairs.
他希望由大國來瓜分世界，恢復俄羅斯對周邊鄰國的宗主地位，並凸顯俄羅斯在國際事務中的重要性。
There is no off-the-peg response available to the west.
對於西方來說，目前沒有現成的應對辦法。
Useful lessons can be drawn from the cold war — particularly about the importance of things such as predictable and calibrated responses —
西方國家可以從冷戰中吸取有益教訓——特別是有關可預測的標準化迴應策略的重要性。
and diplomats and strategists need to relearn some of the old rules for managing great power relations.
同時，外交官和策略家需要重新學習一些有關管理大國關係的老規矩。
But, pace Mr Putin, Russia is not the Soviet Union.
但是，尊敬的普京先生，俄羅斯不是蘇聯。
What the US and its allies can usefully do is establish principles to frame a reset grounded in realism.
美國及其盟友可以採取的有效辦法是，確立一些原則，擬定一項務實的重啓戰略。
They should start with resolve, consistency, engagement and respect.
首先要從四點做起：決心、一致性、接觸和尊重。
Resolve is the most important.
決心是最重要的一點。
Mr Putin is an opportunist rather than a grand strategist, a leader looking to probe and test the weaknesses of adversaries.
普京是機會主義者，而不是大戰略家，他伺機試探着敵人的弱點。
The west’s mistake has been to worry that deterrence could be seen as provocation.
西方的失誤是擔心威懾會被視爲挑釁。
By failing to show resolve, it has heightened rather than defused tensions.
由於沒能表現出決心，它激化、而非緩和了緊張關係。
The forward deployment of Nato forces in eastern Europe has gone some way to provide public reassurance.
北約部隊在東歐的前沿部署，在某種程度上使公衆安心。
But Washington should be sending unequivocal messages about lines — in Syria and Europe — that cannot be crossed without consequences.
但是華盛頓方面應該發出明確的信息，明確其在敘利亞和歐洲的底線——俄羅斯一旦跨過這條線就要承擔後果。
The second ingredient is consistency.
第二點是一致性。
Mr Putin is adept at exploiting division and hesitation.
普京擅長利用分歧和猶豫。
European states, in particular, need to show that they can put differences to one side in treating with Moscow.
歐洲各國尤其需要表現出他們在對待莫斯科方面可以放下分歧。
Instead of rolling over economic sanctions every few months — each occasion providing an opportunity for Russia to sow dissent — the EU should change the dynamic by declaring them open-ended.
與目前每隔幾個月便重啓一輪經濟制裁——每一次都給俄羅斯提供挑撥離間的機會——的做法相反，歐盟應該宣佈無限期制裁來改變這一現狀。
They will be lifted only when the Kremlin changes its behaviour.
只有當克里姆林宮改變做法時，制裁才能解除。
Consistency also demands a series of graduated responses to hostile acts.
一致性也要求西方在面對敵對行動時採取一系列遞進的應對辦法。
Moscow should know that cyber attacks and subversion will elicit a response, whether travel restrictions on those closely associated with the regime or tighter economic sanctions.
莫斯科方面應該明白，網絡攻擊和顛覆行爲將招致西方迴應，無論是針對那些與政府有密切關係的人士的旅行限制還是不斷加強的經濟制裁。
Engagement is a word often used by those whose real agenda is submission.
那些真心想屈服的人士，經常把接觸這個詞掛在嘴上。
Mr Corbyn comes to mind.
這讓人一下子就想到了科爾賓。
But tough-minded management of the relationship should not preclude recognition of mutual interests.
但是，以堅定的態度管理雙方關係，不應妨礙對共同利益的承認。
Where the two sides can co-operate usefully — say, in countering terrorism or nuclear proliferation — the west should take the initiative in promoting joint action.
在雙方可以有效合作的領域——比方說在打擊恐怖主義或阻止核擴散方面——西方在推進共同行動方面應該抓住主動權。
Finally, there is that word respect.
最後，還要尊重對方。
To say that Russia is weak in most of the dimensions of power is to state the obvious.
沒錯，在判斷實力的大多數標準上，俄羅斯都很薄弱。
That does not mean it is wise for a US president publicly to confront a thin-skinned Russian president with the uncomfortable reality.
這並不意味着美國總統以令人不悅的事實公開叫板臉皮薄的俄羅斯總統是明智的行爲。
Dissembling has a place in diplomacy.
看破而不說破是可取的外交策略。
The sadness is that, if Mr Putin continues to pretend Russia is a great power, it will eventually cease to be a great nation.
可悲的是，如果普京繼續假裝俄羅斯是世界強國，那麼它是怎麼也不會成爲強國的。
