特朗普與普京可能相互毀滅

If Vladimir Putin did help to put Donald Trump in the White House, it would be the ultimate intelligence coup. Yet, it might also prove to be the ultimate own goal. An operation designed to ease the pressure on Mr Putin’s government by installing a friendly face in the White House has instead led to a tightening of sanctions on Russia, and a dangerous increase in the domestic political pressure on the Russian president.

如果真是弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)幫助把唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)送入了白宮，那真是一場終極的情報勝利。然而，這或許也將成爲一場終極“烏龍”。一項旨在通過讓一位友好面孔入主白宮來減輕普京政府所受壓力的行動，反而導致對俄羅斯的制裁收緊，導致普京面臨的國內政治壓力加大至危險地步。

As for Mr Trump, his campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia may have aided his electoral victory at the risk of destroying his presidency. It would be a strange irony if the intimacy of the Putin and Trump camps ultimately ended both presidents’ political careers.

對特朗普而言，其競選活動涉嫌與俄羅斯勾結，可能幫助了他勝選，但帶來了可能致其倒臺的風險。如果普京陣營與特朗普陣營的密切關係最終導致了兩位總統政治生涯的終結，那將是一種奇特的諷刺。

Of course, the Russian government and Mr Trump’s diehard defenders still deny that any such collusion took place. But the US intelligence services are certain that Russia was behind the hacking of Democratic party emails.

當然，俄羅斯政府和特朗普的死硬維護者們仍拒不承認發生過此類勾結行爲。但美國情報機構確信，俄羅斯正是民主黨電子郵件遭黑客入侵的幕後黑手。

It seems likely that the hack influenced the course of a tight election. I was in Philadelphia on the eve of the Democratic convention in July 2016 when the first leaked emails were released. The revelation that Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the co-chair of the Democratic National Committee, had been privately disparaging the Bernie Sanders campaign forced her resignation, and ensured that the convention got off to a chaotic start.

那場黑客入侵看起來很有可能影響了那場競爭異常激烈的選舉的進程。2016年7月民主黨全國代表大會召開前夕，我正在費城，當時首批遭泄露的電郵被公佈。民主黨全國委員會(Democratic National Committee)主席黛比?沃瑟曼?舒爾茨(Debbie Wasserman Schultz)曾私下對伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的競選表示輕蔑，這一情況的曝光使她被迫辭職，並致使這次大會一開始就陷入了混亂。

Mr Sanders’ supporters were convinced that their man had been robbed. And Sanders voters who switched to the Republicans, were crucial to Mr Trump’s victories in the vital states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. We now also know that Russian operators used Facebook and Twitter to spread anti-Clinton messages.

桑德斯的支持者深信這個他們看好的人選遭到了暗算。轉投共和黨陣營的那些桑德斯支持者，對於特朗普在賓夕法尼亞、密歇根和威斯康星這幾個關鍵州的勝利至關重要。我們現在還知道的是，俄羅斯操作人員曾利用Facebook和Twitter來散播對希拉里不利的信息。

Throughout the campaign, Mr Trump was consistently sympathetic to the Kremlin. Whether he was motivated by ideology, investment or some embarrassing secret has yet to emerge.

在整個競選過程中，特朗普一直對克里姆林宮表示同情。他這樣做是受到意識形態、還是投資或者一些難堪的祕密的驅使，目前還不得而知。

But the Russian connection set off the chain of events that may ultimately unravel his presidency. Alarmed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s probe into his Russian contacts, Mr Trump sacked James Comey, the head of the FBI.

但“通俄門”引發了一系列事件，這些事件最終或將令特朗普倒臺。驚慌於聯邦調查局(FBI)對其通俄問題的調查，特朗普炒掉了FBI時任局長詹姆斯?科米(James Comey)。

The backlash against the Comey sacking led to the appointment of Robert Mueller, a former head of the Bureau, as a special prosecutor to look into the Trump-Russia connection. And the remorseless progress of the Mueller inquiry is likely to spark indictments and resignations. That, in turn, could lead to the impeachment of Mr Trump — and the destruction of his presidency.

炒掉科米引發強烈反彈，結果是，FBI前局長羅伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)被任命爲調查特朗普與俄羅斯關係的特別檢察官。而米勒調查的無情推進，很可能引發起訴和辭職。這反過來可能導致特朗普被彈劾——其總統生涯毀於一旦。

As for Mr Putin, the moment it became clear that his gamble might backfire was when Mr Trump was forced to sack General Michael Flynn, his first national security adviser, for not disclosing contacts with the Russian government. From that point on, it became politically impossible for Mr Trump to help Russia by easing sanctions. On the contrary, the backlash against Russian interference in the US election has led to the intensification of sanctions, with a distrustful Congress ensuring that Mr Trump cannot lift these measures unilaterally.

從特朗普被迫解僱其首任國家安全顧問邁克爾?弗林(Michael Flynn)將軍（原因是後者未披露與俄羅斯政府的接觸）那一刻起，普京的豪賭可能搬起石頭砸自己的腳，就變成很清楚的事了。自那時起，特朗普通過放鬆制裁來幫助俄羅斯，從政治角度而言已經絕無可能了。相反，俄羅斯干預美國大選引發的反彈導致了對俄製裁的加劇，同時，持懷疑態度的國會確保特朗普單憑自己無法解除這些制裁措施。

Indeed, for the Republican Congress getting tough on Russia seems to have become a surrogate for getting tough on Mr Trump. The sanctions added over the summer were aimed specifically at the Russian mining and oil industries, In response, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian prime minister, accused the US of “a declaration of full-fledged economic warfare on Russia”.

實際上，對共和黨控制的國會而言，對俄羅斯採取強硬立場似乎成了對特朗普強硬的替代。今夏新增的對俄製裁措施特地針對俄羅斯採礦業和石油工業。作爲迴應，俄羅斯總理德米特里?梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)指責美國“對俄羅斯發起全面經濟戰”。

So far from improving under Mr Trump, US-Russian relations are now as bitter as at any time since the height of the cold war. Realising that the Trump administration will not be able to lift sanctions, the Kremlin resorted to a mass expulsion of US diplomats in response to an earlier expulsion of Russians by the Obama administration. The prospect that the US might supply arms to Ukraine has become much more real. And Russia is about to embark on some major military exercises in eastern Europe, which will heighten US fears.

在特朗普的領導下，美俄關係非但沒有改善，而今已處於自冷戰高峯期以來的最差時期。意識到特朗普政府無力解除制裁，克里姆林宮便訴諸大規模驅逐美國外交官的作法，作爲對奧巴馬(Obama)政府早些時候驅逐俄外交官的迴應。美國向烏克蘭提供武器的可能性已變得愈加真實。而俄羅斯即將開始在東歐進行一些重大軍事演習，這將加劇美國的擔憂。

The irony for Mr Putin is that, if he had simply let events take their course, sanctions on Russia could have been eased in the natural run of events — even with Hillary Clinton in the White House. Mrs Clinton had already tried one “reset” with Russia as secretary of state, and might have been prepared to try another. Many in Europe were also tiring of sanctions on Russia.

對普京而言，具有諷刺意味的是，如果他不干預美國大選，那麼對俄羅斯的制裁將會自然而然得到放鬆——即便希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)入主白宮。希拉里曾在擔任國務卿期間嘗試過“重啓”美俄關係，她或許已準備好再嘗試一次。在歐洲，許多人也已經厭倦了對俄羅斯的制裁。

When the Mueller inquiry reports, there is likely to be a renewed spike in American outrage towards Russia. The most obvious threat is posed to Mr Trump. But the Mueller inquiry also poses an indirect threat to Mr Putin. He will contest a presidential election in March and faces a re-energised opposition, led by the popular and daring Alexei Navalny, and a deteriorating economy that has hit Russian consumers hard. Even though very few people expect Mr Putin to lose the election, the pro-Putin euphoria of a couple of years ago is clearly fading. Articles about the post-Putin era have begun to appear in the Russian media.

米勒的調查報告出爐的時候，美國人對俄羅斯的憤怒可能會再次高漲。受到最明顯威脅的將是特朗普。但米勒調查也會對普京構成了間接威脅。明年3月，普京將角逐總統大選，他面對的將是一個由受歡迎且大膽的阿列克謝?納瓦爾尼(Alexei Navalny)領導的、重現活力的反對黨，以及對俄羅斯消費者造成沉重打擊的不斷惡化的經濟。儘管很少有人預期普京會在大選中落敗，但幾年前的那種對普京的瘋狂擁戴顯然正在消退。關於後普京時代的文章已經開始出現在俄羅斯媒體上。

Above all, the most powerful economic interests in Russia now know that there is no longer any light at the end of the sanctions tunnel. In fact, things are likely to get worse. Something radical will have to change to get sanctions lifted. And that change might be the removal of Mr Putin from the Kremlin. Indeed, it is only when Mr Trump and Mr Putin both go that it may truly be possible to reset US-Russian relations.

最重要的是，俄羅斯最強大的經濟利益集團如今已經明白，再也沒有解除制裁的希望。事實上，形勢可能變得更糟。俄羅斯必須有一些徹底的改變，才能讓制裁得到解除。而這一改變可能是普京從克里姆林宮下臺。實際上，只有當特朗普和普京都下臺時，美俄關係才真正有可能重啓。