特朗普的地位相當強大

America’s most recent election is best recollected in “final straw” moments. Whether Donald Trump was scorning the Muslim parents of a slain soldier, accusing a female anchor of menstrual bias, or goading fans to beat up protesters, his obituary was written weekly.

美國最近一次大選最能讓人回憶起的是“最後一根稻草”的時刻。無論是唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)怠慢陣亡軍人的穆斯林父母，批評一名女主持人因爲來月經而有偏見，或者是煽動支持者痛打抗議者，每週都有人撰文預測他不可能當選。

The same applies to his presidency. Last week, Mr Trump supposedly plumbed new depths by describing Haiti and Africa as “shitholes”. We forget that he launched the campaign by branding Mexicans as rapists. Now, we are told, he has really gone and done it. Except that he has done it so many times before. We are blinded by our outrage. In reality, Mr Trump’s position has rarely been stronger.

這也適用於他的總統任期。上週，據說特朗普在放肆程度上更進一步，把海地和非洲稱爲“糞坑”。我們忘記了，他在投入競選時曾把墨西哥人稱爲強姦犯。如今，我們被告知，他真的這麼做了。只是他以前做過很多次。我們被憤怒矇蔽了雙眼。在現實中，特朗普的地位幾乎從未像現在這樣強大。

Later this month, he marks his first year with his State of the Union address. It will be tempting to see it as another way station on Mr Trump’s road to oblivion. No president has finished his first year with such low approval ratings. Come to think of it, none had such poor numbers after three months, six months, at Thanksgiving and so on. Mr Trump just keeps scraping new lows.

本月晚些時候，他將在上任一週年之際發表《國情諮文》(State of the Union)演講。誘惑在於，人們很容易把這視爲特朗普走向毀滅之路的又一站。從來沒有一位美國總統在上任一年後的支持率如此之低。既然說到這個話題，沒有一個總統在上任3個月後、6個月後、在感恩節等等的時刻人氣如此之低。特朗普的支持率不斷創出新低。

In reality, though, his numbers have not moved. Mr Trump lost about 10 points within his first month in office. His ratings have been hovering at between 35 and 40 per cent ever since. Which of these stories tells us more? The historic lows or the fact that Mr Trump has lost little support in the past 11 months?

在現實中，他的支持率數字變化不大。特朗普在上任頭一個月的支持率下降了大約10點。此後，他的支持率一直徘徊在35%至40%之間。哪個故事更說明問題？是歷史新低還是特朗普在過去11個月基本上沒有失去更多支持？

We should pay equal attention to the latter. Philosophers teach us to sift reality from desire — the “is/ought” distinction.

我們應同樣重視後一個。哲學家教育我們要從願望中篩選出現實，把握好“現實/願望”之間的區別。

The fact that Mr Trump so deserves his comeuppance too often spills into forecasts of his demise. If we switch to the “is” lens for a moment, the picture looks troublingly different. The president now has a near total grip on the Republican party. Both wings — the “moderates”, on one side, and the pyrotechnicists, once led by the outcast Steve Bannon, on the other — have fallen into line.

特朗普理應得到報應的事實，經常波及到對他倒臺的預測。如果我們暫且切換到“現實”的透鏡，畫面令人不安地有些不同。美國總統現在幾乎完全控制了共和黨。兩翼（一邊是“溫和派”，一邊是曾由被驅逐的史蒂夫?班農(Steve Bannon)領導的脣槍舌戰派）均已變得聽話。

A few weeks ago, disaffected Republicans, such as Bob Corker, the Tennessee senator, were vowing a brave stand against Mr Trump. The White House was “an adult day care centre”, said Mr Corker. Mr Trump could trigger “world war three”. But when it came to a vote on the $1.5tn tax bill last month, -Republicans such as Mr Corker rallied round. Whatever growth results from the -corporate tax cut will be Mr Trump’s to brandish. This week, Zogby Analytics gave him a 46 per cent approval rating.

幾周前，心懷不滿的共和黨人誓言要勇敢對抗特朗普，例如田納西州參議員鮑勃?科克(Bob Corker)，他表示，白宮成了一個“成人日託中心”；特朗普可能引發“第三次世界大戰”。但在上月就1.5萬億美元稅改法案舉行投票時，科克等共和黨人都站在同一立場。不管降低企業稅率會給經濟增長帶來什麼效果，都將是特朗普可以往自己身上攬的功勞。本週，Zogby Analytics的調查顯示，特朗普的支持率達到46%。

In reality, the stimulus will be shortlived, skew to the wealthiest and accelerate the interest rate cycle. But polls measure how people feel now.

在現實中，減稅帶來的刺激將是短暫的，偏向最富有人羣，並將加快利率週期。但民調衡量人們當下的感受。

Last week, Mr Corker travelled with Mr Trump on Air Force One. Suddenly, they were buddies again. The same goes for all but a couple of his peers. If Mr Trump were a marsupial, the Republican party would be in his pouch. We should not expect them to act as a check on his power. People are now looking elsewhere.

上週，科克陪同特朗普乘坐“空軍一號”出訪。突然間，他們又成了哥們。除了兩、三個人外，他的同僚都表現出同樣的態度。如果說特朗普是有袋類動物，那麼共和黨就在他的育兒袋裏。我們不應該指望他們來制衡他的權力。如今人們正在尋找其他制衡力量。

The latest hopes are projected on to Mitt Romney, the former presidential nominee, who is planning a Senate run. He will speak truth to power, we are told. During the 2016 election Mr Romney called Mr Trump a “fraud” and a “phoney”. Once he has arrived in the Senate, Mr Romney will be the one who stands up and says: “Have you no shame, sir?” Someone has to say it, right? Alas, pretty much everyone has been saying it everyday — but to no effect, since Mr Trump has none. Besides, Mr Romney auditioned unsuccessfully to be Mr Trump’s secretary of state. There is no reason to suppose he will be any less of a weathervane than Mr Corker.

人們最近把希望的目光投向了前總統候選人米特?羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)，他正計劃競選參議員。據說，他會向當權者說實話。在2016年選舉期間，羅姆尼曾稱特朗普是“騙子”。一旦他進入參議院，羅姆尼將站起來說道：“你不覺得羞恥嗎，先生？”總得有人說這話，對吧？唉，幾乎所有人每天都這麼說——但是沒有效果，因爲特朗普就是沒有羞恥心。此外，羅姆尼曾被考慮擔任特朗普的國務卿，但落選了。沒有理由認爲他能比科克強到哪裏去。

What about the Democrats? They have placed their chips on Robert -Mueller, the special counsel. Mr Trump’s second year is as likely to be as badly disrupted by the Russia investigation as his first. Bigger scalps, including Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, and Donald Trump Jr, are likely. The chances are that Mr Mueller will land a damning report on Capitol Hill at about the time Democrats are likely to regain control of Congress.

民主黨怎麼樣？他們把籌碼放在了特別檢察官羅伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)身上。特朗普就職的第二年可能會像第一年一樣被“通俄案”調查嚴重打亂。調查可能會扳倒更高層的人物，包括他的女婿賈裏德?庫什納(Jared Kushner)和小唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump Jr)。米勒可能將向國會提交一份破壞力巨大的報告，而那時可能適逢民主黨奪回國會控制權。

But there are two wrinkles to the Trump impeachment story. First, Democrats will need a lot of Republicans to co-operate. There is little chance of that. Indeed, Republicans and the Fox News-led “conservative entertainment complex” are doing their best to discredit Mr Mueller.

但特朗普遭到彈劾的故事有兩個漏洞。第一，民主黨將需要共和黨通力合作。這幾乎沒有可能。的確，共和黨和以福克斯新聞(Fox News)爲首的“保守陣營娛樂綜合體”正在竭盡全力地破壞米勒的聲譽。

Second, Mr Trump has a knack of inciting liberals to stereotype themselves. The more Democrats invest in the Trump outrage machine, the less they put into a case for governing.

第二，特朗普擅長於刺激自由派人士把自己“臉譜化”。民主黨人越是深陷對特朗普的憤慨，成天想着要把他趕下臺，就越難以拿出自己的治國方略。

Unlike winning campaign themes, which are hard to come by, outrageous Trumpisms grow on trees. America’s president has an unlimited supply of them. He ought not to be president. Yet he is. Will Democrats grasp the difference in year two?

與振奮人心的競選主題不同（這些很難獲得），特朗普的離譜言論要多少有多少。美國總統有源源不斷的離譜言論。他不應該當選總統。然而他現在是總統。在他主政的第二年，民主黨人會把握其中的不同嗎？