希拉里比特朗普對中國更強硬(下)
The Chinese started to refer to the South China Sea as a core interest alongside Taiwan and Tibet — in other words, a subject on which there could be no flexibility.
在對話中，中方代表將南中國海與臺灣、西藏一道列爲核心利益——換句話說，這是一個不容商榷的話題。
They warned that China would not tolerate outside interference, she wrote. On the flight home from Beijing, I took stock with my team.
他們警告稱，中國不會容忍外來干涉，她寫道，從北京飛回國途中，我與我的團隊慎重地分析了形勢。
I thought China had overplayed its hand.
我認爲中國高估了自己的實力。
The administration decided to start calling out Beijing over its actions in the South China Sea.
美國政府決定開始挑戰中國在南中國海的行爲。
Jeff Bader, then Asia director at the National Security Council, and former assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell prepared the ground before the Hanoi meeting by briefing governments that harboured complaints about the Chinese.
時任國家安全委員會亞洲事務主管傑夫•貝德(Jeff Bader)與前助理國務卿庫爾特•坎貝爾(Kurt Campbell)爲河內會議召開做足準備，向對中方抱有不滿的政府知會美方立場。
Over the past few years, the US has expanded security co-operation with Vietnam and the Philippines, both of which are involved in territorial disputes with China, and backed a court case brought by the Philippines.
過去幾年中，美國擴大了與越南、菲律賓的安全合作（兩國都與中國存在領土爭端），並支持菲律賓針對中國提出的一起訴訟案。
An international tribunal ruled in July that many of China’s claims in the South China Sea were unlawful.
今年7月，一家國際仲裁庭裁定中國在南中國海的多項主張都爲非法。
For all their occasional disagreements on the Middle East, Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton were much more aligned when it came to Asia.
雖然在中東問題上偶有分歧，但涉及亞洲問題時，奧巴馬和希拉里的看法要一致得多。
Indeed, the biggest competition within the administration was over who should take credit for the strategy — the White House or the state department — not over its ideas.
實際上，政府內部爭得最厲害的不是圍繞這一戰略的思想，而是誰是這一戰略的功臣，白宮還是國務院？
There were times when Tom Donilon [a former national security adviser] thought she was too tough on China, or Jeff Bader.
有時，（前國家安全顧問）湯姆•多尼隆(Tom Donilon)認爲她對中國太過強硬，傑夫•貝德也會這麼想。
But not Obama, says one former senior official. He never really had any romantic attachment to the idea that we need to always have smooth Sino-US relations.
但奧巴馬不，一位前美國高級官員表示，他從來沒有不切實際地抱着我們需要一直保持平穩的中美關係的想法。
The one exception was over the case of Chen Guangcheng, the blind activist who took refuge in the US embassy in Beijing in 2012 and who — after several days of negotiations while Mrs Clinton was in Beijing for a summit — eventually received asylum in the US.
陳光誠事件是一個例外，這位盲人維權者2012年進入北京美國駐華大使館尋求庇護——當時希拉里正在北京參加一個峯會——經過幾天的談判，陳光誠最終得以到美國避難。
According to senior officials, Mr Obama was highly critical of the state department’s decision to let Mr Chen into the US embassy.
據美國高官稱，奧巴馬嚴厲批評了國務院讓陳光誠進入美國大使館的決定。
Along with the Hanoi meeting, the stand-off over Mr Chen was another piece of evidence for those in Beijing who believe Mrs Clinton to be a relatively hardline voice about China, both on security issues and human rights.
除了河內會議，中美在陳光誠事件上的僵持也使得北京一些人士更加相信希拉里在安全和人權問題上代表着對華相對強硬的聲音。
Indeed, Chinese suspicions about Mrs Clinton date back to the 1995 World Conference on Women in Beijing, when she insisted that women’s rights are human rights and human rights are women’s rights — remarks that were not broadcast in China.
事實上，中國方面對希拉里的懷疑可以追溯至1995年在北京召開的世界婦女大會(World Conference on Women)，當時她堅稱婦女權利即人權，人權即婦女權利——這些言論未能在中國播出。
As a result, many analysts in China would expect a prospective Clinton administration to be more willing to confront Beijing.
因此，中國許多分析人士預計，有望入主白宮的希拉里將更願意與北京方面對抗。
She has always been hard on China since her first visit in 1995, says Chu Shulong, an international relations expert at Tsinghua University. That’s her style.
自1995年首次訪問中國以來，她一直對中國保持強硬態度，清華大學(Tsinghua University)國際關係專家楚樹龍說，這是她的風格。
Shi Yinhong, another international relations expert at Renmin University, agrees: Hillary will be tougher on China than Obama.
來自人民大學的另外一位國際關係專家時殷弘同意這種觀點，他說：在對華態度上，希拉里將會比奧巴馬更加強硬。
From the start, the decision to push back against China in the South China Sea and the increasing US presence in the region have won strong, bipartisan support in Washington, where there are few disagreements with the basic ideas of the pivot.
在南中國海對抗中國並擴大美國在亞太地區存在的決定從一開始就在華盛頓得到兩黨的大力支持——華盛頓在轉向亞洲的基本戰略思想上鮮有不同意見。
Within the administration, the only real debate has been about the pace of US naval operations in contested areas in the South China Sea.
在奧巴馬政府內部，真正的辯論只圍繞着美國海軍在南中國海爭議海域的行動步伐。
However the pivot has not been without its critics.
然而，也並非沒有人批評轉向亞洲戰略。
Hugh White, a former Australian defence official and an influential observer on Asia, believes that the US is not prepared for the huge risks and costs that would be required to actually shift China’s strategy.
澳大利亞原國防部官員、頗具影響力的亞洲問題觀察家休•懷特(Hugh White)認爲，美國沒有準備好應對切實轉變對華策略所必然帶來的巨大風險和成本。
The pivot’s architects assumed that a merely symbolic reassertion of US power and resolve would be enough to make China back off, he argues.
他辯稱：‘轉向亞洲’戰略的設計者以爲，只要象徵性地彰顯美國實力和決心就足以讓中國退讓。
China’s assertive posture in the East and South China Sea today is strong evidence that they were wrong.
中國如今在東中國海和南中國海上擺出的強硬姿態明顯表明，這種想法是錯誤的。
Flawed deal?
有缺陷的TPP？
So how would President Clinton act in Asia? For all her input in defining the Obama administration’s strategy to the region, during the election campaign she has turned against one of its central planks, the 12-nation trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (China is not involved in TPP.)
那麼，希拉里總統將會在亞洲怎麼做？儘管希拉里參與制定了奧巴馬政府的亞太戰略，但在選戰期間，她轉變態度反對該戰略的核心內容之一，也就是包括12個成員國家（不含中國）的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)。
Should Mrs Clinton win the election, the ideal situation for her would be for Congress to approve the trade deal before her inauguration.
如果希拉里贏得選舉，對她來說，理想的情況將是國會在她宣誓就職前批准TPP。
But if that does not happen, she would face the difficult choice of whether to reopen an agreement which she has described as central to American influence in the region, but which she now believes to be flawed in practice.
但如果國會沒有批准TPP，她就會面臨是否重啓該協議的艱難抉擇——她曾說TPP對美國在亞太地區的影響力至關重要，但後來又認爲該協議在實踐中存在缺陷。
One former US official who worked closely with the Obama administration on China argues that Mrs Clinton would push more strongly on commercial issues and would be far less patient with the restrictions Beijing places on doing business in its own market.
一位曾密切參與奧巴馬政府中國事務的美國前官員表示，希拉里將會在商業問題上施加更大壓力，也更加對中國政府對在華外資企業施加的限制沒有耐心。
I don’t think she’ll be willing to park the competitiveness agenda as it relates to China to get, say, a global climate deal, he adds.
他補充稱：我不認爲她會願意爲了簽署什麼協議——比如說全球氣候協議——而擱置與中國相關的競爭力議程。
President Obama wanted China’s help on the Iran deal, he wanted the climate deal and he was willing to shelve other more nettlesome issues in order to get them.
奧巴馬總統在伊朗協議上希望得到中國協助，他也希望簽署氣候協議，他就願意爲了簽署這些協議而擱置其他更棘手的問題。
The sharpest dilemma would be on the South China Sea.
最棘手的將是南中國海問題。
The approach Mrs Clinton started to outline in Hanoi in 2010 was to pressure China to back away from efforts to dominate the region, by demonstrating the regional and US opposition.
希拉里2010年在河內概述的策略是通過展示亞太各國和美國的反對，從而迫使中國放棄主導該地區的努力。
Instead, Beijing has plunged ahead full speed, dramatically increasing over the past three years its efforts to build artificial islands that might one day serve as military bases.
結果是，北京方面全力以赴，在過去3年大舉建設有朝一日可以用作軍事基地的人造島嶼。
Among Mrs Clinton’s Asia advisers, the approach being debated is a slightly stepped-up version of the Obama pivot — a series of steps aimed at forging a deeper network of allies and partners that can act as a deterrent to China and reinforce US ideas about trade and freedom of navigation.
希拉里的亞洲事務顧問們正在辯論的策略比奧巴馬的轉向亞洲略有強化，即一系列旨在打造更深層次的盟友和合作夥伴網絡的舉措，它們可以威懾中國，並強化美國提出的關於貿易和航行自由的觀點。
The sorts of proposals being discussed include having another aircraft carrier permanently stationed in the region; expanding missile defence in South Korea; increased deployments to the island of Guam; and sending more planes and ships to the Philippines.
正在討論的建議包括讓另一艘航空母艦永久駐紮在亞太地區；擴大韓國的導彈防禦系統；增加關島軍力部署，以及向菲律賓派遣更多的飛機和軍艦。
They sound like small, incremental steps, but over time they will add up into a regional framework that can influence China’s rise, says one former official advising the Clinton campaign.
一位爲希拉里競選團隊提供建議的前官員表示：這些聽起來像是漸進的小步驟，但隨着時間推移，它們將累積爲可能影響中國崛起的地區框架。
The Clinton team is still betting, in effect, that China has overplayed its hand.
希拉里團隊實際上仍在押注中國高估了自己的實力。
