馬克龍如何與特朗普打交道

Why is it OK for Donald Trump to visit Paris, but not OK for him to visit London? Despite the famed “special relationship” between Britain and the US, the American president’s long-planned trip to the UK has been indefinitely postponed — largely because of the unstated fear that Mr Trump would be greeted by mass protests.

爲什麼美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)訪問巴黎可以，訪問倫敦就不行？儘管衆所周知英國與美國存在“特殊關係”，但特朗普規劃已久的訪英之旅卻被無限推遲——這主要是因爲擔心特朗普遇到大規模的抗議，儘管沒有人公開這麼說。

Instead, he has accepted an invitation to France — and could be seen happily reviewing the troops, alongside Emmanuel Macron, at the annual July 14 parade. The fact that the French president felt able to take a domestic political risk by inviting Mr Trump to Paris — despite the US president’s 14 per cent approval rating in France — offers some insights into the fine art of handing Mr Trump.

相反，他接受了訪問法國的邀請，並在7月14日的法國年度閱兵儀式上與埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)一起愉快地檢閱軍隊。儘管特朗普在法國的支持率只有14%，但馬克龍覺得能夠冒着國內政治風險邀請特朗普訪問巴黎，這一事實爲與特朗普打交道的藝術提供了一些洞見。

Mr Macron issued his invitation to the US president from a position of strength. His first encounter with Mr Trump featured a theatrical bone-crushing handshake. To some this might have seemed like the diplomacy of the playground. But it sent a clear message. France was not going to be pushed around. By contrast, Theresa May’s first visit to Washington featured the UK prime minister briefly holding hands with Mr Trump at the White House. To many in Britain, this looked like a cloying closeness with an unpopular US president.

馬克龍有底氣邀請特朗普訪法。他首次與特朗普會晤時極盡誇張地大力握手。對某些人來說，這似乎是操場外交。但它傳遞出明確的信息。法國不會任由擺佈。相比之下，英國首相特里薩?梅(Theresa May)首次訪美的時候，在白宮與特朗普曾短暫地手牽手。對英國的許多人來說，這看起來就像是與一位不受歡迎的美國總統膩歪地親近。

The lesson seems to be that European leaders who first make it clear that they are willing to stand up to Mr Trump, then have more latitude to extend the hand of friendship. By contrast, leaders who seem to approach the Trump White House as supplicants are vulnerable to a domestic backlash.

教訓似乎是，首先表明自己有意志反抗特朗普的歐洲領導人，之後有伸出友誼之手的更大自由度。相比之下，那些似乎因有所求而接近特朗普政府的領導人很容易在國內遭遇反彈。

This contrast is about much more than theatrical handshakes. It extends to policy and ideology. Mr Trump is a champion of nationalism and a scourge of globalism. Mr Macron, fresh from beating the nationalist Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, is carrying the standard for internationalism in Europe — alongside Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.

這種對比遠不止誇張地握手，而且還體現在政策和理念方面。特朗普鼓吹民族主義而痛斥全球主義。剛剛在法國總統大選中擊敗民族主義者馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)的馬克龍，則在與德國總理安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)一起扛起歐洲的國際主義大旗。

But the position of Mrs May is much more ambiguous. Her government insists that Britain continues to champion globalisation. But the Brexit vote has been widely interpreted across the world — including by Mr Trump and Mr Macron — as part of the backlash against globalism. Under these circumstances, a state visit by Mr Trump to the UK would raise all sorts of difficult questions about where Britain stands — in geopolitical and ideological terms.

但梅的立場要含糊得多。她的政府堅稱，英國繼續倡導全球化。但英國退歐公投被包括特朗普和馬克龍在內的世界各國人士解讀爲對全球化的反彈的一部分。在這種情況下，特朗普對英國的國事訪問將會引發各種關於英國地緣政治和意識形態立場的棘手問題。

Paradoxically, because Mr Macron is very clearly on the other side of an ideological divide from Mr Trump — he can risk standing next to him at a military parade.

看似矛盾的是，因爲馬克龍顯然與特朗普的意識形態相悖，因此他可以冒險在閱兵儀式上與後者站一起。