警惕與普京打交道的危險

For Donald Trump, the attractions of making a pact with his future counterpart Vladimir Putin are many and obvious.

對唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)來說，在就職後與俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)達成某種協議的吸引力又多又明顯。

Russia’s challenge to American global dominance is the most acute foreign policy issue on the US agenda.

俄羅斯對美國全球主導地位的挑戰是美國外交政策議程上最尖銳的議題。

Defusing tension with a nuclear-armed rival is a laudable goal.

化解與一個擁有核武器的對手的緊張關係是一個值得稱讚的目標。

Politically, striking a deal would go a long way towards turning Mr Trump from a tycoon, entertainer and political outsider into a statesman.

從政治上說，與克里姆林宮達成協議將大大有助於特朗普從一個大亨、明星和政治局外人轉變成一位政治家。

The world must hope that Mr Trump also sees the huge risks inherit in any grand bargain with Russia.

全世界一定希望特朗普還能看到與俄羅斯達成的任何大妥協必然伴隨的巨大風險。

Mr Putin wants to tear down the current US-backed political order in Europe and indeed worldwide, which he sees as unfair and inimical to Russia’s interests.

普京想要攪亂歐洲（更確切地說是全世界範圍內）當下由美國支撐的政治秩序，他認爲這一秩序不公平，且有損俄羅斯的利益。

A softening of the international constraints that restrict his ambitions might deliver a temporary thaw in US-Russian relations.

軟化限制其野心的國際制約，可能暫時讓美俄關係解凍。

But it could also undermine long-term US and western interests and undercut security and stability elsewhere.

但這也將損害美國和西方的長遠利益，並危及其他地區的安全與穩定。

Multilateral co-operation, in Mr Putin’s vision, would be replaced by a world carved up into the great powers’ spheres of influence.

按照普京的願景，多邊合作將被一個由大國勢力範圍劃分的世界取代。

In such a world Moscow would have a free hand in much of the former Soviet space.

在這樣一個世界，莫斯科可以在前蘇聯空間的很多地方爲所欲爲。

Mr Trump, for his part, must reject any attempt to reproduce the 1945 Yalta conference in the modern day.

從特朗普來說，他必須抵制任何再現1945年雅爾塔會議的企圖。

To do so would seem to reward Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine.

因爲那將被看作對俄羅斯吞併克里米亞和入侵烏克蘭東部的獎勵，

That could set a dangerous precedent, emboldening powerful nations elsewhere.

進而開創一個危險的先例，給其他地區的強國壯膽。

It would undermine, too, the principle established since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and enshrined in the 1990 Paris Charter, that European countries are free to choose their policies and alliances.

這還將破壞自柏林牆倒塌以來確立的、載入1990年《巴黎憲章》(Paris Charter)的原則：歐洲國家可以自由選擇各自的政策和聯盟。

Ukraine, in particular, must not be sold out.

尤其是，絕對不能出賣烏克蘭。

This could prompt the collapse of its pro-western government.

那樣做可能導致該國的親西方政府垮臺。

Other nations in the Russian sphere might similarly refuse to submit.

處於俄羅斯勢力範圍之內的其他國家或許同樣會拒絕對其屈服。

In dealings with Mr Putin, therefore, the incoming US president should follow several principles.

因此，在與普京打交道時，即將上任的美國總統應當堅持幾項原則。

First, his administration should make its commitment to Nato, a pillar of European and global security since its 1949 foundation, absolute and unequivocal.

首先，特朗普政府應該對北約(NATO)作出無條件且毫不含糊的承諾；該組織自1949年成立以來一直是歐洲乃至全球安全的支柱。

The alliance should accelerate its existing efforts to ensure all member states meet minimum defence spending targets.

北約應加快現有努力，確保所有成員國達到最低國防支出目標。

But the US commitment to defend even the newest and smallest Nato members must remain unconditional.

但即使對那些最新加入、面積最小的北約成員國，美國也必須承諾無條件爲它們提供防衛。

Second, Mr Trump should not, as he hinted during his campaign, drop sanctions on Russia — undermining solidarity with Europe and Japan — without progress on the issues over which they were imposed.

第二，在導致對俄羅斯制裁的問題未取得進展的情況下，特朗普不應像他在競選期間暗示的那樣，取消這些制裁，否則將破壞美國與歐洲和日本的團結。

He should not recognise Russia’s claim to Crimea, whose occupation was a blatant breach of international law.

他不應承認俄羅斯對克里米亞的主權主張，俄羅斯佔領克里米亞是悍然違反國際法的行爲。

Just as when the west refused to recognise the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states, respecting these bright lines does not rule out pursuing a new form of detente in other areas.

就像當年西方拒絕承認蘇聯侵佔波羅的海諸國那樣，尊重這些明線並不排除在其他領域尋求一種新形式的緩和。

Mr Trump should not immediately put all issues on the table, but seek to make gradual progress on specific topics, helped by confidence-building measures.

特朗普不應把所有問題都直接擺上桌面，而應在一些建立信任的措施的幫助下，尋求在具體問題上循序漸進。

Syria is one area where renewed US-Russian co-operation is a prerequisite to end the conflict, although the resumption of raids on Aleppo demonstrate Russian intractability.

在敘利亞，美俄重啓合作是結束衝突的先決條件——儘管對阿勒頗恢復空襲展示出俄羅斯的不講道理。

In dealing with Moscow, Mr Trump should place just as much importance on the rights and interests of Russia’s neighbours as he does on those of Russia.

在與莫斯科打交道時，特朗普應該像重視俄羅斯的權利和利益那樣，重視俄鄰國的權利和利益。

With tension at its highest level since the 1980s, the prize of improved relations with Russia is significant.

在美俄關係處於自上世紀80年代以來最緊張時刻之際，改善與俄羅斯關係的好處是顯著的。

It cannot be achieved by caving in to Moscow’s terms, however.

但這不能通過屈從於莫斯科開出的條件來實現。

Whatever the risks today, a bad deal with Mr Putin would be worse than none at all.

無論當今的風險有多大，與普京達成糟糕的協議還不如根本沒有協議。