有沒有膽量與普京打一場經濟戰

For all the costs that sanctions are inflicting on the Russian economy, the Russian flag still flies over Crimea, Moscow remains undeterred and the ceasefire in Ukraine is at risk. Worse still, Russia is using its own form of economic warfare as a shield and a sword.

儘管制裁爲俄羅斯經濟帶來了巨大代價，但俄羅斯國旗依然在克里米亞上空飄揚，莫斯科方面沒有被嚇倒，烏克蘭停火面臨風險。更糟糕的是，俄羅斯正在動用自己的經濟戰手段展開攻防。

Western strategy has focused on blocking future deals with the Russian military sector, restricting Russian banks’ access to long-term capital, depriving elements of the Russian oil sector of technology they need for deep-sea and shale drilling, and freezing the overseas assets of individuals tied to the Kremlin.

西方的戰略迄今聚焦於幾個方面：阻止與俄羅斯軍工部門達成未來交易、限制俄羅斯的銀行獲取長期資金、禁止向俄羅斯石油業的某些部門提供他們急需的深海及頁岩油氣鑽探技術，以及凍結克里姆林宮相關人士的海外資產。

But most existing contracts between western interests and their Russian clients have been allowed to continue. Rather than dealing an instant blow, the aim has been to starve the country of capital by sowing doubts among western investors about the wisdom of investing in Russia. Contracts and capital have evaporated, growth has slowed and leading Russian companies such as Aeroflot, the airline, have been unable to acquire necessary investment.

不過，西方企業與俄羅斯客戶之間的多數現有合同被允許繼續履行。制裁的目標並不是要對俄羅斯發動立竿見影的打擊，而是要在西方投資者心目中播下疑慮的種子，讓他們懷疑投資俄羅斯是否明智，從而令俄羅斯陷入資本枯竭。大量合同和資金已經蒸發，增長已經放緩，包括俄羅斯國際航空公司(Aeroflot)在內的俄羅斯領先企業無法獲得必要投資。

But there is a limit to the amount of financial pain that the west can inflict on a big economy with substantial economic ties to Europe and the rest of the world. Russia’s entanglements are vulnerabilities but they also allow Russia to exact a price of its own.

然而，對於俄羅斯這樣一個與歐洲乃至世界其他地區有着大量經貿往來的大型經濟體，西方制裁能夠造成的痛苦是有限的。俄羅斯對外經濟聯繫是它的弱點，然而這種聯繫也被俄羅斯用來讓其他國家付出代價。

Companies subject to western sanctions are making moves to circumvent the restrictions.

受到西方制裁的企業正在採取措施，規避各項限制。

Rosneft, the Russian oil company, is set to buy 30 per cent of Norway’s North Atlantic Drilling, enabling it to gain access to offshore drilling capabilities in the Arctic despite technology export bans and financial restrictions.

俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)將買入挪威北大西洋鑽井公司(North Atlantic Drilling) 30%的股份，這讓該公司能夠繞開技術出口禁令和財務上的限制，獲得北極海域的海上鑽井能力。

Meanwhile, Russian investors deepen their economic interests in London, Frankfurt and New York. And the Russian sovereign wealth fund will be tapped for billions of dollars to shore up capital requirements at banks hit by sanctions.

與此同時，俄羅斯投資者在深化自己在倫敦、法蘭克福和紐約的經濟利益。而俄羅斯主權財富基金將拿出鉅額資金，滿足受制裁打擊的銀行的資本需求。

Moscow is biting back. In June it ended flows of oil and gas to Ukraine, and it is restricting exports to other European customers as winter approaches.

莫斯科方面在發動還擊。今年6月，該國關閉了流向烏克蘭的石油和天然氣。在冬天臨近之際，俄羅斯也在限制對歐洲其他客戶的油氣出口。

The Kremlin has banned agricultural imports from countries that have participated in the sanctions. It has closed four McDonald’s restaurants, using health inspections as a pretext, and it is flirting with a national payment system that could replace Visa and MasterCard. Western airlines may find themselves unable to fly over Siberia, forcing flights to Asia to take big detours. American consulting and accounting firms may be prevented from operating in Russia.

克里姆林宮已禁止從參與制裁的國家進口農產品。該國還以衛生檢查爲藉口，關閉了四家麥當勞(McDonald's)門店。該國還在探索能代替Visa和萬事達卡(MasterCard)的國內支付系統。西方的航空公司可能被禁止飛越西伯利亞，迫使飛往亞洲的航班繞一大圈。美國諮詢公司和會計師事務所可能被禁止在俄羅斯運營。

The country has more cards to play.

俄羅斯手上還有更多牌可打。

It could cut off supplies of engines to the US space programme. It is a big exporter of titanium and other resources needed by western companies. Moscow could emerge as a sanctions-busting financial partner to a country such as Iran, at the height of nuclear negotiations.

俄羅斯可以切斷供應給美國空間項目的發動機。該國還是西方企業需要的鈦和其他資源的出口大國。俄羅斯還可能破壞對伊朗的制裁，在覈談判的緊要關頭充當伊朗的金融合作夥伴。

The Kremlin could also enlist criminal networks to attack the computer systems of western targets, including big banks.

克里姆林宮還可能動員犯罪網絡，攻擊西方目標（包括大銀行）的電腦系統。

The west needs a comprehensive strategy that intensifies financial pressure on Moscow while deterring Russian escalation. Sanctions should no longer be tied to diplomatic milestones. Instead, they should be seen as a continuous campaign that leaves President Vladimir Putin and the markets guessing. These financial measures should be targeted principally on Russian illicit conduct that threatens the integrity of the financial system. This approach has proved highly effective in Iran.

西方需要一套完善的戰略，一方面強化俄羅斯所受的財務壓力，另一方面能嚇阻俄羅斯，使其不敢升級。制裁行動不應再與外交里程碑掛鉤。相反，制裁行動應當被視爲一場持續的鬥爭，讓俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)和市場捉摸不定。金融制裁舉措應該主要針對俄方威脅金融體系完整性的非法行爲。事實證明，這種方法在針對伊朗的制裁中非常有效。

New Russian investments in the west need to be carefully scrutinised, and western commercial contacts with suspect individuals and companies further constrained. Europe needs to secure alternative sources of oil and gas, though this will take time. Other countries, too, should seek back-up supplies of resources they buy from Russia.

俄羅斯對西方的新投資必須受到仔細審查。此外，還要進一步限制西方與可疑個人和企業的商業往來。歐洲還必須找到替代的油氣來源，儘管這將需要時間。其他國家也應該尋找從俄羅斯進口資源的替補供應源。

Unless Washington and Brussels are willing to endure some economic pain, their sanctions campaign will prove ineffective. They should be prepared for a frozen conflict in which Moscow is willing to use its own economic weapons.

如果美國和歐盟不願意忍受一定程度的經濟痛苦，他們的制裁就不會奏效。他們應該做好準備，迎接一場俄羅斯動用其經濟武器的天寒地凍般的衝突。