歐洲經濟還沒有走出危險區 不容樂觀
For the past year, we've been hearing that global growth, and the world's equity markets, will get a major lift from a gradual recovery in Europe.
過去一年，我們總是聽到，全球經濟增長和股票市場將受到歐洲逐漸復甦的大力推動。Indeed, Ireland and Portugal recently returned to the debt markets with well-received offerings, and the Greek government claims it will soon be in a position to issue bonds. Yields on sovereign debt remain remarkably low and stable. It's indisputable that a mood of tranquility has returned to the eurozone.
確實，近期愛爾蘭和葡萄牙重返債券市場，市場接受度良好，希臘政府也宣稱很快將發行債券。主權債券的收益率保持相當低的水平，走勢穩定。毋庸置疑的是，歐元區已經重現平靜。But tranquility is not the same thing as progress, as the GDP figures released on May 15 by the Statistical Office of The European Union (Eurostat) alarmingly demonstrate. The 18-nation eurozone expanded by just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2014, half the figure economists were projecting.
但平靜不等同於增長，歐盟統計處（the Statistical Office of The European Union）5月15日發佈的GDP數據令人驚醒。2014年第一季度，由18個成員國組成的歐元區經濟體僅增長了0.2%，只有經濟學家預測值的一半。
Germany, as usual, was the leader, posting a gain of 0.8%. The problem spots are precisely the places where the comeback is supposedly underway: the beleaguered nations of Europe's southern tier, as well as that tamed tiger, Ireland.
和以往一樣，德國一馬當先，增長了0.8%。問題正是出在那些所謂正走在復甦路上的國家：曾經危機四伏的歐洲南部國家以及失去了如虹氣勢的愛爾蘭。The latest figures confirm that most of these countries aren't improving at all. Italy's economy shrank by 0.1% in the first three months of 2014, matching the average of the three previous quarters. After expanding 0.6% in Q2 2013, France recorded zero growth. Portugal shrank 0.7%, following positive numbers in the preceding nine months. While figures weren't available for Greece and Ireland in Q1, neither country is showing progress. Greek GDP dropped 2.5% in the final three months of last year, and Ireland limped ahead at 0.2%.
最新數據印證，這些國家的經濟大多數根本就沒有改善。2014年前三個月，意大利經濟收縮了0.1%，與前三個季度的平均值持平。2013年第二季度曾經增長0.6%的法國經濟出現了零增長。連續9個月保持正增長的葡萄牙經濟收縮了0.7%。希臘和愛爾蘭雖然沒有第一季度的數據，但這兩個國家哪個也沒有顯露出改善的跡象。去年第四季度希臘GDP下降了2.5%，而愛爾蘭微增了0.2%。The lone nation demonstrating a sustained upward trend, however modest, is Spain. It grew at 0.4% in the first quarter of 2014 after pretty much flatlining for the last nine months of 2013.
唯一一個呈現經濟持續增長（儘管增幅溫和）的國家是西班牙。2013年後9個月基本持平後，西班牙2014年第一季度增長了0.4%。Harald Uhlig, a German-born and educated economist at the University of Chicago, provides a balanced view of the current risks to the eurozone. For Uhlig, it's crucial to understand the divergent courses taken by Germany and the southern nations since the euro's introduction in 1999, and how those policies have led to the disparate economic outcomes in these nations today. "Inflation had always been a big problem in southern Europe," he says. "Rates were high, and they also carried a big 'risk premium' because you couldn't be sure that the separate central banks wouldn't do something crazy, causing more inflation."
在德國出生並接受教育的芝加哥大學（University of Chicago）經濟學家哈拉爾德o烏利希針對當前的歐元區風險給出了較爲平衡的觀點。烏利希認爲，很重要的一點是要理解自1999年引入歐元以來德國和南歐國家選擇的不同道路，以及這些政策爲什麼導致了這些國家今天不同的經濟境遇。“通脹曾經一直是南歐的一個大問題，”他說。“利率高，並帶有高風險溢價，因爲你不知道各個央行會不會做出些瘋狂的舉動，繼續推高通脹。”The institution of a single currency in Europe led to the creation of a Bundesbank-like European Central Bank that then and now sets monetary policy in a rigorous, predictable fashion. "Rates dropped, and government and consumer spending exploded, driving high growth rates," says Uhlig. What's often overlooked, he notes, is that Germany didn't join the party. "Germany was the 'sick man' of Europe. It suffered when the euro was introduced, in contrast to the southern countries." Germany posted miserable GDP numbers in the early 2000s, while Ireland, Greece, and Spain all roared ahead.
歐洲單一貨幣制度導致類似於德意志聯邦銀行(Bundesbank)的歐洲央行成立，歐洲央行以嚴密、可預見的方式設定貨幣政策。“然後，利率降低，政府和消費者支出猛增，推動高增長，”烏利希表示。他指出，人們這時往往忽略了一點，那就是，德國沒有加入進來。“當時的德國是歐洲的病人。不同於南歐國家，歐元的引入對它是一個衝擊。”21世紀第一個十年初期，德國公佈的GDP數據非常糟糕，而當時愛爾蘭、希臘和西班牙都在高歌猛進。Then, Germany made a turn that, in retrospect, seems astounding. Chancellor Gerhard Schroder (who served from 1998 to 2005) championed reforms designed to create a far more flexible labor market. "His model was the U.S.," says Uhlig. "Before that, I kept hearing from leaders in Germany who didn't want to reform, [saying] what you hear now in southern Europe: 'If we only have more growth in the next five years, we'll get rid of the unemployment problem.' But growth never came."
然後，德國開始轉變，現在來看這個轉變非常關鍵。德國總理格哈特o施羅德(任期1998-2005年)力主改革，希望大大提升勞動力市場的靈活性。“他的榜樣是美國，”烏利希說。“在那之前，我在德國不斷聽到那些不願改革的領導人們（說着）你們現在在南歐聽到的話：只要未來5年我們有更多增長，我們就會消除失業問題。但增長一直沒有出現。”Schroder decisively lowered pension costs and unemployment compensation, and he gave companies more flexibility with hiring and layoffs. Schroder paid a heavy price for securing the most dramatic labor market reforms in modern European history. "He should have been rewarded, but he was brutally punished," says Uhlig.
施羅德決定降低養老金和失業金，給予公司更多的招聘裁員靈活權。爲了實施這場歐洲當代史上最爲大刀闊斧的勞動力市場改革，施羅德付出了沉重代價。“他本應獲得嘉許，卻受到了狠狠地懲罰，”烏利希表示。Schroder lost the chancellorship to Angela Merkel in 2005. The fruits of his reforms didn't surface until around 2006, when the German economy emerged as the strongest player in Europe, as demonstrated by its resurgence from the financial crisis.
2005年，施羅德失去了總理的職位，讓位於安格拉o默克爾。他的改革成效直到2006年才浮現，德國經濟一躍成爲歐洲最強，迅速走出了金融危機。Big spending inflated wages in southern Europe, and productivity gains couldn't keep up, meaning labor costs in Spain and France for each unit of autos or steel produced grew at a faster rate than in Germany or the U.S. The crash exposed the competitiveness gap in southern Europe and Ireland. Global customers bought less and less of pricey exports from southern Europe.
依賴高額支出的南歐工資以及生產率增長無法持續，西班牙和法國的單位汽車或鋼鐵成本增速快於德國或美國，暴露了南歐和愛爾蘭的競爭力差距。國際客戶日益減少從南歐進口的高價商品。So, what can these nations do now? "It can be solved in one of two ways," says Uhlig. "One is exiting the euro so that costs decline in the new currency compared to costs in other nations. The other is a combination of productivity gains and labor cost reductions. That would be the far better course."
那麼，現在這些國家能做些什麼?“解決方法有兩個，”烏利希說。“一是退出歐元，這樣新貨幣成本將相比其他國家下降。二是提高生產力，降低勞動力成本。這是一條更好的出路。”The issue, he says, is that the troubled nations have done little to unshackle labor markets along the lines of Schroder's reforms of a decade ago.
他說，問題是，那些危機國家沒有怎麼行動起來，按十年前施羅德的改革路線來解放勞動力市場。Uhlig is especially concerned about the deterioration in France. "Europe used to have two great stabilizers, France and Germany. Now it has one. In France, the retirement age is too low, and companies are often run by former government figures and are too politically connected, so that it's difficult for entrepreneurs to challenge entrenched companies." He worries that the future of the eurozone is increasingly "on the shoulders of just one stabilizer, Germany."
烏利希特別關注的是法國經濟的惡化。“歐洲過去有兩大穩定器——法國和德國。現在只剩一個。在法國，退休太早，公司管理者往往是前政府官員，政商聯繫密切，因此創業者很難挑戰既有競爭者。”他擔心歐元區的未來越來越“落到德國這唯一一個穩定器的肩上。”The severe recession and high jobless rates have not done nearly enough to lower labor costs. "I keep hearing from colleagues that labor costs have come way down in Spain," he says. "But they're still too high. The southern countries haven't solved the problem of letting wage costs run far ahead of gains in productivity."
嚴重的經濟衰退和高失業率尚不足以降低勞動力成本。“我不斷聽同事們說西班牙的勞動力成本已顯著下降，”他說。“但還是太高。南歐國家依然沒有解決勞動力成本增長快於生產率增長的問題。”Uhlig also notes that Europe's period of economic calm hasn't been put to good use. "It hasn't been used for the types of reforms that are needed," says Uhlig. "The attitude is, the euro-crisis is over, yields are still fairly low, and we don't have to do anything."
烏利希還指出，歐洲經濟的平穩期沒有得到好好的利用。“沒有用來實施所需的改革，”烏利希說。“人們的態度是，歐元危機已經結束，收益率仍相當低，我們不需要做什麼。”Uhlig is particularly concerned with potential triggers that might undermine confidence in the credit markets. "If Greece defaults, it could set off a contagion that would raise rates for the other nations, causing more defaults and a possible exit from the euro." Uhlig would much prefer that the euro stay in place, and the problem be addressed by the Schroder method. Unfortunately, he says, the Schroder experience haunts Europe's current leaders. "They fear they'll end up like Schroder and the Social Democrats," he says.
烏利希特別擔心一些突發事件可能損傷信貸市場的信心。“如果希臘違約，影響可能蔓延，導致其他國家利率上升，產生更多違約，甚至可能退出歐元。”烏利希希望歐元能得以保留，按施羅德的方法解決問題。不幸的是，他說，施羅德的遭遇讓歐洲現任領導人們望而卻步。他說：“他們害怕他們最終會落得和施羅德以及社會民主黨一樣的下場。”Southern Europe may have missed its chance. The best time to reform was when times were flush in the mid-2000s. It's far more difficult to undo regulations and restrictions imposed over decades when economies are stalled and budgets are stretched to the limit, making a fiscal spending jolt highly risky.
南歐可能已經錯失機會。改革的最好時機是21世紀第一個十年的中期左右，當時時間充裕。更困難的是取消幾十年來在經濟停滯、預算捉襟見肘時實施的種種法規和限制，削減財政支付風險重重。Europe's leaders keep careening from one "solution" to another, fixating on the German elections, then on asset quality reviews for banks, then on huge monetary stimulus programs to prevent potential deflation. They're missing what really needs to be done. If Europe doesn't make some tough decisions, the market will make choices for them. That would deliver a giant, cracking sound heard round the world.
歐洲領導人們不斷地從一個“解決方案”向另一個解決方案搖擺，瞄瞄德國大選，瞅瞅銀行資產質量考覈，再看看旨在阻止通貨緊縮的鉅額貨幣刺激方案。他們忽略了真正該做的事情。如果歐洲不做出一些艱難的決定，市場將代他們做出選擇。屆時必將傳出一聲巨大的爆裂聲，響徹全球。
