費希爾對美國經濟表示樂觀
The Federal Reserve is close to meeting both its targets for the US economy, one of its leading policymakers said, as he delivered an upbeat verdict on the post-crisis recovery.
美聯儲(Fed)一位主要政策制定者表示，美聯儲正接近同時實現其對美國經濟設定的兩個目標，他對後危機時期的復甦發表了樂觀的結論。
Stanley Fischer, the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, said core inflation was within “hailing distance” of the central bank’s 2 per cent target, while employment had increased “impressively” since its nadir in 2010.
美聯儲理事會副主席斯坦利•費希爾(Stanley Fischer)表示，核心通脹率處於該行設定的2%這一目標的伸手可及的範圍內，而就業自2010年降至最低谷以來已經有了“令人印象深刻”的增加。
Mr Fischer has occupied the more hawkish end of the spectrum among the permanent members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. He did not address the question of when the Fed should next lift short-term interest rates in his speech in Aspen, Colorado.
費希爾在聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)常任委員中處於比較鷹派的一端。在科羅拉多州阿斯彭(Aspen)發表的演講中，他並未回答美聯儲下次應在何時提高短期利率的問題。
However his confident assessment will attract the scrutiny of traders seeking to untangle the views of a heavily divided body of US policymakers.
然而，他自信的評估將吸引交易員們進行仔細分析，後者試圖理清一個存在嚴重分歧的美國政策制定者羣體的種種看法。
“We are close to our targets. Not only that, the behaviour of employment has been remarkably resilient,” Mr Fischer said.
費希爾說：“我們接近實現我們的目標。不僅如此，就業一直表現得相當有韌性。”
In his speech Mr Fischer spelt out the speed bumps that the US has had to confront in the past two years. These have included the Greek debt crisis, the 20 per cent rise of the trade-weighted dollar, uncertainties over China’s exchange rate policy, bouts of financial market turbulence, a “dismaying pothole” in job growth in May of 2016, as well as the UK’s Brexit vote.
費希爾在演講中詳細列舉了美國過去兩年不得不面對的種種障礙，包括希臘債務危機、美元貿易加權匯率上漲20%、中國匯率政策的不確定性、一波又一波的金融市場動盪、2016年5月就業增長“令人沮喪的下凹”，以及英國公投退出歐盟。
“Yet, even amid these shocks, the labour market continued to improve: employment has continued to increase, and the unemployment rate is currently close to most estimates of the natural rate,” Mr Fischer said.
“但是，即使遭遇所有這些衝擊，勞動力市場繼續好轉：就業持續增加，當前的失業率接近大多數人估計的自然失業率，”費希爾說。
“I believe it is a remarkable, and perhaps under-appreciated, achievement that the economy has returned to near-full employment in a relatively short time after the Great Recession, given the historical experience following a financial crisis.”
“我相信這是一項非凡且或許被低估的成就，參考金融危機後的歷史經驗，美國經濟在大衰退(Great Recession)後相對較短的時間內恢復到了接近充分就業的水平。”
That said, one of the disquieting developments of recent years is the sharp slowdown in US productivity growth. In the second quarter labour productivity recorded its third consecutive quarterly drop — the first time such a string of declines has happened since 1979.
話雖如此，近年來令人不安的動態之一是美國生產率增速大幅放緩。今年第二季度，勞動生產率出現了連續第三個季度下滑——這是自1979年以來首次出現這樣的一連串下滑。
