奧巴馬外交努力遭遇普京打太極

U.S. officials negotiating with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over the future of Ukraine were surprised last week after the experienced diplomat excused himself to phone President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

上週俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)在倫敦就烏克蘭問題與美國官員進行磋商，期間這位經驗豐富的外交官請求暫時離席，與遠在莫斯科的總統普京(Vladimir Putin)通電話，之後的情況令在場的美國官員始料未及。

His making such a call wasn't unusual: Mr. Lavrov often sought instructions from the Kremlin leader. The Americans were stunned, however, when Mr. Lavrov reported that Mr. Putin had refused to take his call.

拉夫羅夫打電話本身並不奇怪，因爲他常常請示普京意見。但讓美方官員吃驚的是，拉夫羅夫說普京拒絕接他的電話。

Coming during the final U.S. attempts to preserve the modern borders of Europe, the episode with Mr. Lavrov here last week underscored the Obama administration's inability to penetrate the Kremlin and its struggles to comprehend Mr. Putin's calculations five years after President Barack Obama decided to reset Washington's ties with Moscow.

在美國爲保護現代歐洲版圖做最後努力之際，發生在拉夫羅夫身上的這則小插曲表明，奧巴馬(Obama)政府無法洞悉克里姆林宮的真實想法，在奧巴馬決定重新定位美俄關係五年以後，華盛頓依然對普京捉摸不透。

Russia's rapid move this week to absorb Crimea came despite breakneck U.S. diplomatic efforts, showing the limits of that approach with Moscow and marking a renewed chill with an expansionist-minded partner still seen as vital to core American interests around the world.

儘管美國在短時間內做了大量外交努力，但俄羅斯本週以雷霆之勢迅速吞併克里米亞，這暴露出了美國對俄策略的侷限性，也標誌着兩國關係再度陷入冰點。一心謀求擴張的俄羅斯仍然被視爲影響美國在全球核心利益的關鍵因素。

The Obama administration is now left crafting a more confrontational policy toward Mr. Putin, but it remains unclear how far it will go. The inner workings of the Obama administration's diplomatic push, including Mr. Lavrov's phone call, were described by several senior U.S., European and Russian officials who were familiar with the recent negotiations.

現在，奧巴馬政府只得對普京採取更具對抗性的政策，但目前還不清楚這種對抗姿態做得有多徹底。多位熟悉近期談判內容的美歐及俄羅斯官員描述了奧巴馬外交努力的內幕，包括拉夫羅夫試圖請示普京的那通電話。

Since the crisis over Ukraine erupted last month, the White House gave Secretary of State John Kerry the task of aggressively engaging Mr. Lavrov. But the administration soon concluded that the Soviet-trained bureaucrat wasn't empowered to cut deals on the Kremlin's plans to annex Ukraine's Crimean region.

上月烏克蘭危機爆發之後，白宮把積極遊說拉夫羅夫的重任交給了美國國務卿克里(John Kerry)。但是白宮很快發現，在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞的計劃上，這位前蘇聯培訓出來的官僚並沒有和美方磋商協議的決定權。

The White House, sensing its isolation from Mr. Putin, desperately set about to find alternate channels to influence Russia's strongman and to step up Mr. Obama's outreach to him, according to senior U.S. officials.

據美國高級官員講，白宮意識到了普京根本不願意與之對話，於是開始拼命尋找其他途徑來影響這位俄羅斯的政治強人，奧巴馬也加大了與普京的溝通力度。

The moves included establishing back channels with Moscow-friendly foreign leaders. Mr. Obama phoned German Chancellor Angela Merkel multiple times, as well as British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President François Hollande, and reached out to Nursultan Nazerbayev, Kazakhstan's ruler, the White House said. Mr. Kerry has met with Israel's Russian-born foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, at least once, U.S. and Israeli officials said. The efforts didn't seem to have much impact. (Mr. Nazerbayev recognized the Kremlin's annexation of Crimea on Tuesday.)

美國採取的措施中包括與親俄的外國領導人進行私下溝通。白宮說，奧巴馬多次致電德國總理默克爾(Angela Merkel)、英國首相卡梅倫(David Cameron)、法國總統奧朗德(Francois Hollande)，並與哈薩克斯坦總統納扎爾巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazerbayev)進行了接洽。據美國和以色列官員說，克里與出生在俄羅斯的以色列外長利伯曼(Avigdor Lieberman)至少舉行過一次會晤。但是這些努力似乎收效甚微。（納扎爾巴耶夫週二承認克里米亞入俄。）

Mr. Obama in four phone calls with Mr. Putin over the past month totaling 4 1/2 hours also failed to make headway with a leader he had cultivated as a crucial ally in trying to roll back the spread of nuclear weapons and international terrorism.

過去一個月奧巴馬與普京通話四次，總時長達到四個半小時，但也未能取得進展。奧巴馬曾經把普京當作一位重要盟友，本打算和他在抑制核武器擴張以及反恐方面進行合作。

This dynamic created a growing unease in Washington that Mr. Putin was simply using diplomacy--and Mr. Lavrov--as political cover for moving his forces into Crimea and possibly greater Ukraine. Mr. Lavrov repeatedly assured Mr. Kerry that Russia planned to respect Ukraine's borders.

局勢的發展令華盛頓愈發不安，擔心普京只是拿外交和拉夫羅夫作爲其朝克里米亞（甚至更廣闊的烏克蘭內陸）派兵的障眼法。拉夫羅夫曾再三向克里保證，俄羅斯尊重烏克蘭的領土主權。

Kremlin officials have said Russia's diplomatic efforts were genuine. Mr. Lavrov couldn't be reached for comment.

俄羅斯官員則說，莫斯科的外交努力是真誠的。記者未能聯繫到拉夫羅夫發表評論。

Mr. Obama in recent years has treated the Kremlin as a top U.S. diplomatic partner in addressing national-security challenges despite evidence Mr. Putin was working at cross purposes to U.S. ambitions in many parts of the world.

近年來，奧巴馬在應對國家安全挑戰時一直將克里姆林宮視爲美國最重要的外交夥伴，儘管有證據表明普京在世界很多地方的所作所爲都與美國的目標背道而馳。

On Syria, Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov formulated diplomatic tracks aimed at disarming President Bashar al-Assad of his chemical-weapons arsenal and ending the civil war. But two years after the diplomacy started, Mr. Assad has solidified his position in Damascus while Moscow has intensified its arms shipments to the Syrian military, U.S. and Arab officials have said.

在敘利亞問題上，克里和拉夫羅夫制定了讓敘利亞總統阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)交出化學武器儲備並終結敘利亞內戰的外交軌道。但美國和阿拉伯官員說，在外交途徑啓動兩年後，阿薩德不僅鞏固了他在大馬士革的地位，莫斯科也加強了對敘利亞軍方的武器輸送。

On Iran and North Korea, the White House made Russia a central player in its efforts to prevent Tehran and Pyongyang from acquiring nuclear weapons. But the diplomacy has done little to halt the countries' progress. Now, the Obama administration has publicly voiced alarm that Moscow could torpedo current talks with Tehran by agreeing to build new reactors for Iran in a barter exchange for Iranian oil.

在伊朗和朝鮮問題上，白宮讓俄羅斯唱主角，阻止德黑蘭和平壤獲得核武器。但外交斡旋在促使這兩個國家停止發展核武器方面收效甚微。如今奧巴馬政府已公開警告說，莫斯科爲了獲得伊朗石油可能會同意爲伊朗建新的核反應堆，破壞目前與德黑蘭的談判。

Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House, said on Tuesday that Mr. Putin's play for Ukraine shouldn't have surprised the White House, given his track record on such issues as Syria and Iran. He called on Mr. Obama to escalate sanctions and consider military support to Ukraine. 'It is past time we reassess our entire strategy towards a nation that poses an increasing threat to international peace and security,' he said.

美國衆議院共和黨二號人物坎託(Eric Cantor)週二說，考慮到前車之鑑，白宮不應對普京在烏克蘭問題上耍的把戲感到意外，他在敘利亞和伊朗等問題上就這麼幹過。坎託呼籲奧巴馬加強制裁，並考慮向烏克蘭提供軍事支援。他說，美國早就應該全面評估對俄戰略，俄羅斯目前對國際和平和安全已經構成越來越大的威脅。

Obama aides said his outreach to Russia over the past five years has been worth it. 'It wasn't a failure, because the reset was premised on two things: first, that there were areas where out of mutual self-interest it made sense to cooperate with Russia,' said Tony Blinken, Mr. Obama's Deputy National Security Adviser, in an interview. 'But, second, there would be areas where we would not cooperate because our differences were too stark, like the issue of spheres of influence, which we reject.'

奧巴馬的助理說，過去五年奧巴馬對俄羅斯示好是值得的。奧巴馬副國家安全顧問布林肯(Tony Blinken)接受採訪時說，這並非失策，因爲戰略調整有兩個基本前提：一是在某些領域出於共同利益有必要與俄羅斯合作，二是有些領域雙方分歧太大而無法合作，例如美國反對的勢力範圍問題。

With Russia's declared plan to annex Crimea, the Obama administration has signaled a more confrontational stance toward the Kremlin, including sanctioning some of Mr. Putin's aides and senior officials. The White House also indicated it could move to impose broad financial sanctions, targeting Russian arms and resource companies, if Moscow moves to carve out larger sections of Ukraine.

在俄羅斯宣佈克里米亞入俄計劃後，奧巴馬政府已經暗示將對克里姆林宮採取對抗性更強的立場，包括制裁普京的一些助理和俄羅斯高級官員等。白宮還表示，如果莫斯科對烏克蘭有進一步的企圖，美國可能針對俄羅斯軍火商和資源企業實施廣泛的金融制裁。

Still, the White House and State Department have shown a reluctance to give up diplomacy with the Russians. Mr. Kerry continues to talk with Mr. Lavrov almost daily, U.S. officials said, and hasn't ruled out having direct talks with Mr. Putin. Mr. Obama said on Monday that he still sees a diplomatic resolution to the crisis 'in a way that addresses the interests of both Russia and Ukraine,' a stance echoed by Germany and other U.S. allies.

儘管如此，白宮和美國國務院表示，不願放棄與俄羅斯的外交斡旋。美國官員說，克里仍幾乎每天與拉夫羅夫通話，且尚未排除與普京直接對話的可能性。奧巴馬週一說，他仍認爲存在一種既能化解危機、同時又能顧及到俄羅斯和烏克蘭兩國利益的外交途徑。德國和美國的其他盟友支持這一立場。

The U.S. position is feeding growing fears in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region that Washington and the European Union eventually will adapt to a Russian absorption of Crimea, if not Ukraine as a whole.

考慮到美國的這一態度，東歐和高加索地區越來越擔心這樣一個後果：只要俄羅斯沒有併吞烏克蘭整個國家，華盛頓和歐盟最終會適應俄羅斯對克里米亞的兼併。

The U.S. embraced a more aggressive diplomatic role in the Ukraine crisis on Feb. 22. The Obama administration and EU were stunned when former Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych, a close Kremlin ally, fled Kiev following massive street protests.

美國在2月22日的烏克蘭危機中採取了一種更加大膽的外交策略。前烏克蘭總統、俄羅斯的親密盟友亞努科維奇(Victor Yanukovych)在大規模街頭抗議活動之後逃離基輔，這一事件令奧巴馬政府和歐盟震驚。

U.S. officials welcomed the expected Westward tilt of a new Ukrainian government. But the administration refrained from publicly championing Mr. Yanukovych's overthrow as a Cold War-style victory, fearing it could rattle Mr. Putin, U.S. officials said.

美國官員對新上臺的烏克蘭政府預料中的親西方態度表示來歡迎。但美國官員稱，美國政府沒有公開宣稱亞努科維奇下臺是冷戰式的勝利，擔心這麼做可能激怒普京。

The Obama administration's initial reaction focused on using Ukraine's political transition as an opportunity for cooperation with Moscow. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew met in Australia with his Russian counterpart, Anton Siluanov, a day after Mr. Yanukovych's overthrow and sought to jointly develop an economic-aid package for Ukraine. Mr. Kerry held one of his more-than-a-dozen phone calls with Mr. Lavrov since the Ukraine crisis erupted, seeking common ground on political reforms for Kiev and the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

奧巴馬政府最初的反應重點是利用烏克蘭的政治過渡期作爲與莫斯科方面合作的機會。在亞努科維奇下臺後的第二天，美國財長盧(Jacob Lew)在澳大利亞與俄羅斯財長西盧安諾夫(Anton Siluanov)舉行了會晤，試圖聯手拿出一套針對烏克蘭的經濟救援方案。克里則與拉夫羅夫通了電話，試圖在烏克蘭政治改革以及保護在烏俄羅斯族人方面達成共同立場。自烏克蘭危機爆發以來，克里已與拉夫羅夫通了十幾次電話。

'We don't see the world in zero sum terms,' said Mr. Blinken, the deputy national-security adviser, 'and in the case of Ukraine for example, a successful, integrated Ukraine is not only good for Ukraine, it's actually good for Russia.'

副國家安全顧問布林肯稱，美國並不是以零和的方式來看世界，以烏克蘭爲例，一個成功、完整的烏克蘭不光對烏克蘭是好事，對俄羅斯來也有利。

As the Kremlin prepared in February to deploy troops across Crimea, Messrs. Obama and Kerry intensified their efforts to walk back Russia from a confrontation.

在2月份俄羅斯政府準備向克里米亞部署軍隊時，奧巴馬和克里加大了努力，試圖讓俄羅斯避免採取對抗行動。

Mr. Obama's 90-minute phone conversation with Mr. Putin on March 1 was longer than any call he has had with a foreign leader except Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said a senior administration official.

一位美國政府高官表示，3月1日奧巴馬與普京通了90分鐘的電話，這是除了以色列總理內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)之外，奧巴馬與外國領導人通話時間最長的一次。

The presidents have become blunt in their exchanges. In the March 1 call, they spent most of the time disagreeing over the facts on the ground in Ukraine, U.S. officials said. Mr. Putin insisted that ethnic Russians were in danger in the former Soviet state, while Mr. Obama said: 'That's just not true.'

兩位總統在電話中都直言不諱。美國官員稱，在3月1日的電話中，他們大多數時間都對烏克蘭局勢的事實有分歧。普京堅稱在烏克蘭的俄羅斯族人面臨危險，而奧巴馬則表示：情況不是這樣。

During their discussion, Mr. Obama made clear he was serious about sanctions and presented Mr. Putin with a version of a resolution he had been discussing with Ms. Merkel and others. Mr. Putin indicated he heard the message but didn't show his hand, the senior administration official said.

在通話期間，奧巴馬清楚地表明他有關可能制裁俄羅斯的說法是嚴肅的，並向普京提出了他與默克爾和其他人討論的一個解決方案。上述美國政府高官稱，普京暗示他已明白奧巴馬的意思，但卻沒有作出表態。

The White House and State Department have sought out U.S. allies who have more-cordial relations with Mr. Putin. On March 4, Mr. Obama talked to Ms. Merkel for nearly an hour by phone, going over the outlines of a potential resolution to the crisis. He has spoken with her at least twice since then, U.S. officials said, including on Tuesday.

白宮和美國國務院找到與普京關係較好的美國盟友。3月4日，奧巴馬與默克爾通了近一個小時電話，詳細討論應對這場危機的可能解決方案。美國官員說，之後他至少又與默克爾通了兩次電話，包括週二。

Mr. Kerry's close working relationship with Mr. Lavrov has dominated the diplomacy. They are an unlikely pair: a Vietnam War veteran who sailboards and a chain-smoking Soviet-schooled bureaucrat known for sharp suits and wry humor.

克里與拉夫羅夫密切的工作聯繫成爲外交策略的重點。這兩人看上去格格不入：克里是越戰老兵，愛好帆板，老煙槍拉夫羅夫則是在前蘇聯接受教育的官僚，以考究的西服和黑色幽默而聞名。

Mr. Kerry, after a four-hour stop in Kiev on March 5, flew to Paris and Rome for meetings with Mr. Lavrov. Mr. Kerry brought with him Ukraine's interim foreign minister, Andrii Deshchytsia, in hopes of brokering a direct meeting with Mr. Lavrov. The Russian refused, saying the Kremlin didn't recognize Ukraine's new government.

3月5日，克里在基輔停留四個小時之後飛往巴黎和羅馬與拉夫羅夫會面。與克里一道前往的還有烏克蘭臨時外交部長德謝茨亞(Andrii Deshchytsia)，克里希望能促成他與拉夫羅夫會面。但俄羅斯方面予以拒絕，說俄政府不承認烏克蘭新政府。

Mr. Kerry passed to Mr. Lavrov in Rome a one-page document outlining a resolution on Ukraine that the U.S. wanted to be presented to Mr. Putin. Moscow responded by inviting Mr. Kerry to meet with Mr. Putin in Sochi. The White House and State Department demurred, wanting to see if Mr. Putin responded substantively to the proposals. Mr. Kerry then sent Mr. Lavrov a more detailed document, U.S. officials said.

克里在羅馬向拉夫羅夫遞交了一份長一頁的文件，列舉了美方希望轉達給普京的針對烏克蘭問題的解決方案。莫斯科方面的迴應是邀請克里在索契與普京會晤。白宮和美國國務院提出異議，希望瞭解普京是否對這些提議有實質性的反饋。美國官員說，克里隨後向拉夫羅夫遞交了更詳細的文件。

But the Kremlin used the exchange to paint the U.S. as not serious about negotiations. During a break from the Sochi Paralympic Games, Mr. Putin met Mr. Lavrov on March 10 before state-television cameras. When Mr. Putin requested an update on the negotiations, Mr. Lavrov said Mr. Kerry had scheduled and then canceled his trip.

但俄羅斯政府利用這次交鋒，說美國沒有認真對待談判。在索契殘奧會的間隙，普京與拉夫羅夫於3月10日一道出現在了國有電視臺的鏡頭前。普京問及談判的最新情況，拉夫羅夫說，克里此前規劃了訪俄行程，但後來取消了。

'He gave preliminary approval, but then on Saturday, he called me back and said he'd like to put off the trip, as he put it, because in Washington another piece of paper had appeared,' Mr. Lavrov said disdainfully. 'But we're not just passively receiving proposals from our colleagues.'

拉夫羅夫輕蔑地說，克里一開始同意來，但週六他給我回電話說，他想推遲行程，據他所說，原因是華盛頓出現了另外一份文件。拉夫羅夫說，但我們不是僅僅被動地接受同仁的提案。

Mr. Kerry tried one more time on March 14 to get the Kremlin to back off Crimea in six hours of talks with Mr. Lavrov in London. U.S. officials who took part said the Russian diplomat wasn't prepared to discuss concessions. It was during those meetings that he reported to the U.S. side that he called Mr. Putin but ended up speaking with Mr. Putin's chief of staff instead.

3月14日，克里再次做出努力，與拉夫羅夫在倫敦進行了六個小時的會談，試圖讓俄羅斯放棄克里米亞。參與會談的美國官員說，拉夫羅夫沒有準備討論放棄問題。在那次會晤期間，他告訴美國方面說，他給普京打了電話，但最終只與普京的幕僚長通了話。

Mr. Obama held one more phone call with Mr. Putin on Sunday before the Russian leader declared his plan to annex Crimea. Mr. Obama told Mr. Putin that sanctions and travel bans would be slapped on his aides the following day and that financial sanctions could intensify.

奧巴馬週日再次與普京通電話，之後普京宣佈了接受克里米亞入俄的計劃。奧巴馬對普京說，第二天將對普京的助手實施制裁和旅行禁令，還說金融制裁力度也可能加強。

In recent days, senior U.S. officials have begun outlining a confrontational strategy that marks a policy U-turn. Some U.S. officials have described an attempt to freeze Russian banks and companies out of the Western financial system.

最近幾天，美國高官已經開始規劃對抗策略，這標誌着政策上的極大轉變。一些美國官員描述了將俄羅斯銀行和企業凍結在西方金融體系之外的舉措。

Russian officials mocked the impact of the U.S. sanctions, and Mr. Lavrov threatened on Tuesday to retaliate.

俄羅斯官員嘲笑美國製裁措施的影響，拉夫羅夫週二威脅要還以顏色。