莫迪印度夢 時隔兩年大盤點

Narendra Modi’s sweeping victory in the May 2014 Indian general election prompted jubilation among his Hindu supporters in Varanasi, the northern city on the Ganges he had chosen as his parliamentary seat.

納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)在2014年5月印度大選中大獲全勝讓瓦拉納西(Varanasi)的印度教支持者歡欣鼓舞。瓦拉納西是印度北方邦的一座城市，位於恆河河畔，莫迪選擇該市作爲其議會席位所在地。

The energetic leader of the nationalist Bharatiya Janata party seemed to usher in a radical change from the sclerotic Congress government he had deposed, promising jobs for the young, toilets for the poor and economic reforms for investors and entrepreneurs.

這位精力充沛的民族主義政黨人民黨(Bharatiya Janata)的領導人似乎發起了一場激進的改革，以擺脫被他趕下臺的國大黨(Congress)政府留下的僵化形象。他承諾爲年輕人創造就業機會，爲窮人修建廁所，爲投資者和企業家推行經濟改革。

Two years on, and even Mr Modi’s supporters in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state, are beginning to wonder if the prime minister will be able to achieve half of what he has pledged — whether the target is a clean-up of the polluted Ganges or the revival of Indian manufacturing.

兩年過去了，即便是莫迪在北方邦的支持者也開始懷疑他能否實現當年承諾的一半，無論具體目標是清理遭受污染的恆河還是振興印度製造業。北方邦是印度人口最多的一個邦。

“Modi’s a realist,” says one retired banker in Varanasi, “but he hasn’t achieved anything yet. People say he needs more time.”

瓦拉納西的一位退休銀行家表示：“莫迪是一個務實的人，但他迄今沒有實現任何目標。人們說他需要更多時間。”

Higher up the Ganges in Kanpur, the industrial city once known as the Manchester of India, business leaders say the erratic supply of electricity has improved slightly. But there are few new jobs for the 1m or so young Indians who enter the workforce each month: lack of power, the difficulty of acquiring land, restrictive labour laws and constant interference by bureaucratic and corrupt government inspectors have made sure of that.

在恆河上游的工業城市坎普爾(Kanpur)——這裏一度被稱爲印度的曼徹斯特——企業領導人表示，電力供應不穩定問題略有改善。但每月進入職場的大約100萬年輕人很難找到新的工作：電力匱乏、難以獲得土地、限制性的勞動法以及官僚和腐敗的政府巡視員的持續干預，差不多確保了這種局面。

“Definitely his vision is perfectly OK,” I.M. Rohatgi, who runs an education business and heads the Merchants’ Chamber of Uttar Pradesh, says of Mr Modi. “But the implementation is taking time.”

經營着一家教育企業的北方邦商人商會(Merchants’ Chamber of Uttar Pradesh)會長I•M•羅哈吉(I.M. Rohatgi)在談到莫迪時表示：“他的願景無疑很美好，但在實施上有點費時。”

Before he took office, Mr Modi’s liberal enemies feared he would become a powerful, authoritarian prime minister who would impose or allow his religious backers to impose fundamentalist Hinduism on India’s heterogeneous population.

在莫迪上臺之前，他的自由派對手擔心他會成爲一名強勢的威權總理，把正統的印度教強加、或允許其宗教支持者強加給印度的多元化人口。

There has been some of that. One Muslim businessman in Kanpur said he was worried about “intolerance” following the lynching of a man in Uttar Pradesh on suspicion that he had eaten beef (cows are holy to Hindus).

迄今有一些這方面的例子。坎普爾的一名穆斯林商人表示，在北方邦的一名男子因被懷疑吃牛肉（對印度教徒來說，牛是神聖不可侵犯的）而被處以私刑之後，他對這種“不寬容”感到擔憂。

P. Chidambaram, a Congress leader and former finance minister, says the government is “on a dangerous path” of promoting polarisation, while the BJP’s Arun Shourie, a disenchanted former confidant of Mr Modi, laments the “intimidation and silencing” of the government’s critics.

國大黨領導人、前財政部長帕拉尼亞潘•奇丹巴拉姆(P. Chidambaram)表示，莫迪政府“正走在鼓勵兩極化的危險道路之上”，而曾經是莫迪密友、如今幻想破滅的阿倫•紹裏耶(Arun Shourie)哀嘆政府方面“恐嚇和噤聲”批評者的行爲。

Yet the principal complaint about Mr Modi is not that he is a domineering Hindu puritan but that he has failed to do much for economic development.

然而，對莫迪的主要抱怨並非他是一名霸道的印度教清教徒，而是他未能在經濟發展方面有很大作爲。

“His concept of development is a few large, shining and conspicuous projects,” says Mr Shourie, referring to such Modi-led campaigns as “Make in India” and “Digital India”. Or, as Mr Chidambaram puts it: “Where are the jobs?”

紹裏耶表示：“他對發展的理念是搞一些光鮮靚麗、引人注目的大型項目，”他指的是莫迪發起的“印度製造”和“數字印度”等宣傳造勢活動。或者正如奇丹巴拉姆所言：“就業機會在哪裏？”

Business leaders say it is unfair to suggest that nothing has been achieved, although few of them would agree with Jayant Sinha, minister of state for finance and a former McKinsey partner, when he says “we are fundamentally changing the nature of Indian capitalism” to help entrepreneurs.

企業領導人表示，說莫迪一事無成是不公平的，儘管他們很少有人贊同印度財政國務部長、麥肯錫(McKinsey)前合夥人賈揚特•辛哈(Jayant Sinha)的觀點，後者表示，“我們正在從根本上改變印度資本主義的特質”以幫助企業家。

On Mr Modi’s watch, India has accelerated road-building, invested in the ageing rail network, launched an ambitious solar power plan, opened accounts for more than 200m previously unbanked Indians, and increased the foreign investment limits for sectors ranging from insurance to defence manufacturing.

在莫迪執政期間，印度加快了道路建設、投資改造老舊的鐵路網絡、啓動了雄心勃勃的太陽能發電計劃、爲2億多此前沒有銀行賬戶的印度居民開立了銀行賬戶，並上調了從保險到軍工製造等行業的外國投資上限。

But it has failed to repeal the previous government’s retroactive tax law, which has targeted Vodafone and Cairn Energy among others and sapped investor confidence. Nor has it so far been able to break the grip of the Congress party on the upper house of parliament to enact a long-awaited goods and services tax that would benefit business and the economy by turning India into a single market.

但是，莫迪政府未能廢止上一屆政府出臺的追溯稅法，該法針對沃達豐(Vodafone)和凱恩能源(Cairn Energy)等公司，削弱了投資者信心。莫迪政府迄今也未能打破國大黨對上議院的掌控，以通過外界期待已久的徵收商品和服務稅的議案。該稅種將讓印度變成一個單一市場，從而讓企業和經濟受益。

Mr Modi also faces intense resistance to change from Indian bureaucrats and is undermined by ineffective cabinet ministers he seems unwilling to sack. He sometimes finds his initiatives blocked by state governments — such as that of Uttar Pradesh — controlled by parties other than the BJP. Banks are constrained from new lending by a mountain of bad loans for infrastructure and industry dating back to previous administrations.

莫迪還面臨印度官僚體制對變革的強烈抵制，而且被某些他似乎不願撤換的低效的內閣部長拖了後腿。他有時發現自己的舉措受到由人民黨以外政黨控制的邦政府（比如北方邦的政府）阻撓。與此同時，可追溯到前幾屆政府的基礎設施以及其他行業累積的大量不良貸款，限制了銀行發放新貸款的能力。

Priyankar Upadhyaya, a political scientist at Banaras Hindu University in Varanasi, says Mr Modi “desperately” wants economic development and finds himself stuck in a “trap of expectations” set by hopeful voters.

瓦拉納西貝拿勒斯印度教大學(Banaras Hindu University)的政治學家普利楊卡爾•烏帕德亞雅(Priyankar Upadhyaya)表示，莫迪“迫切”希望發展經濟，結果發現自己陷入了滿懷希望的選民設置的“期望陷阱”。

“He knows that in 2019 [the year of the next general election] people are going to look at these issues.”

“他知道，在2019年（下一個大選年）人民將會關注這些問題。”

Mr Modi has already been distracted from government by state elections, including one next year in Uttar Pradesh, whose 200m inhabitants make it politically the most important in the union.

莫迪已經被邦的選舉搞得分心，包括明年北方邦將舉行的選舉，那裏有2億居民，這讓該邦成爲聯邦內在政治上最重要的地區。

“I think he really wants to bring about change,” says Prof Upadhyaya. “But the problem is that the system on which he depends is mired with issues.”

烏帕德亞雅表示：“我認爲他真的想有所作爲，但問題在於，他所依賴的體制深陷各種問題的泥潭。”

For Harsh Pati Singhania, director of JK Organisation, a family-controlled industrial conglomerate centred on Kanpur, the Modi government is on the right course but needs to focus on implementing its plans.

對坎普爾家族企業集團JK Organisation的總監哈施•帕蒂•辛哈尼亞(Harsh Pati Singhania)來說，莫迪政府的方向是正確的，但需要專注於落實自己的計劃。

“India,” he says, “for any government or administration is not so easy to govern.”

他說，“對任何政府或行政當局來說，印度都不是那麼容易管治的。”