朝鮮時隔36年再開黨代會的幾大看點

North Korea, the world’s last Stalinist state, has invited the world’s media to Pyongyang this week to witness an important Party Congress that has not been held in 36 years, since before supreme leader Kim Jong Un was born.

世界上最後一個斯大林主義國家——朝鮮，已邀請世界各國媒體本週前來見證一場重要的黨代會。朝鮮上一次召開黨代會還是在36年前，彼時最高領袖金正恩(Kim Jong Un)還沒有出生。

Here are a few things to look out for when the Congress opens on Friday:

以下是本週五黨代會召開的時候，可以關注的幾件事情。

Parades and pageantry

閱兵和盛況

The 7th Congress of the Worker’s Party of Korea is expected to be accompanied by an enormous spectacle, including mass choreographed performances, appearances by the “Young Marshall” Kim Jong Un and a military parade through the capital Pyongyang. The event is intended to present the reclusive nation as strong, independent and glorious and to legitimise the absolute rule of the 33-year-old Mr Kim. In the words of Korea expert Andrei Lankov, the pomp and pageantry “will be quite like watching the mating season of dinosaurs — it is a curiosity you don’t see anywhere else any more but it won’t necessarily tell us very much”.

預計朝鮮勞動黨(Worker’s Party)第七次全國代表大會的召開將伴隨着隆重的場面，包括大型編排演出，“年輕的元帥”金正恩的露面，以及在首都平壤舉行的閱兵式。這場盛事旨在展現出這個封閉的國家的強大、獨立和榮光，並將現年33歲的金正恩的專斷統治合法化。用朝鮮半島問題專家安德烈•蘭科夫(Andrei Lankov)的話來說，觀看這樣盛大壯觀的場面“很像是觀看恐龍的交配季——這是你在任何地方都再也看不到的奇景，但它不一定能告訴我們很多事情。”

Signs of reform

改革跡象

Some North Korea watchers are hopeful Mr Kim will use the Congress to announce overarching reforms to the country’s moribund economy, which relies on aid, particularly from neighbouring China. Malnutrition plagues many of the country’s 25m population but markets have sprung up across the country and a new “middle class” with small amounts of expendable income has also emerged. Some analysts are hopeful the Congress will legitimise these realities. Others, including Mr Lankov, do not expect any concrete announcements to be made at the Congress itself but almost everyone believes changes are likely to happen regardless as Mr Kim moves towards the “reform and opening” path followed by China starting from the late 1970s.

一些朝鮮觀察人士寄希望於金正恩將利用這次黨代會，宣佈對該國奄奄一息的經濟進行全面改革。朝鮮經濟依賴援助，尤其是來自鄰國中國的援助。該國2500萬人口中，有許多人受到營養不良的折磨，但市場在全國各地興起，擁有少量可支配收入的新“中產階級”也已出現。一些分析人士寄希望於本次黨代會將這些事實合法化。而蘭科夫等其他人則不指望本次黨代會能夠宣佈什麼具體事項，但幾乎所有人都相信，隨着金正恩朝着中國自上世紀70年代末走上的“改革開放”道路邁進，不管怎樣，改變都可能即將發生。

Party over military

黨高於軍

One explanation for Mr Kim’s decision to hold the Congress now is his intention to boost the power and legitimacy of the Worker’s party established by his grandfather Kim Il Sung. The last Party Congress was held in 1980 and the highlight was Kim Il Sung’s announcement of his son, Kim Jong Il (Kim Jong Un’s father), as his designated successor. When Kim Jong Il took power after his father’s death in 1994, he made a pact with the North Korean military that placed him at its head and downgraded the party’s power within the ruling structure. Since taking power in 2011, Kim Jong Un has struggled to shore up his legitimacy and assert control over the military. One way for him to do this is by returning the Worker’s party to a pre-eminent position within the political hierarchy.

對於金正恩現在舉行黨代會的決定，一個解釋是他打算提高祖父金日成(Kim Il Sung)建立的勞動黨的權力和合法性。上一屆黨代會是在1980年召開的，那次會議的重點是金日成宣佈兒子金正日（Kim Jong Il，金正恩之父）爲指定繼承人。金正日在其父1994年逝世後掌權時，與朝鮮軍方達成協議，軍方將奉其爲首，他將削弱勞動黨在統治結構中的權力。金正恩在2011年掌權後，一直難以鞏固他的合法性並維護對軍隊的控制權。金正恩要達到這個目的，一個方法就是恢復勞動黨在朝鮮政治體系中的最高地位。

Appointments and titles

任命和頭銜

The Congress, which was originally supposed to be held every five years, is supposed to elect members of the party’s leading institutions, although in practice decisions are made beforehand by the leadership and every motion is approved unanimously. The Congress also has the power to amend the party charter and define how the party relates to the country’s government, society, economy, military and culture. Analysts expect many younger officials will be appointed to replace the old guard of the party as part of Kim Jong Un’s efforts to boost support within the power structure.

原本應該每5年召開一次的黨代會的目的，是選出勞動黨領導機構成員，儘管實際上決定都是由領導層提前做出的，每一項動議都能獲得一致通過。黨代會還有權修改黨章，定義黨與政府、社會、經濟、軍事和文化的關係。分析人士預計，本次黨代會將任命許多更年輕的官員，以替換黨內的元老——這是金正恩在權力結構中爭取更多支持的努力的一部分。

Missile launches

導彈發射

North Korea has stepped up efforts to build a nuclear-armed ballistic missile that can reach the US. In January, Pyongyang claimed it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb that could “wipe out the whole of the US territory”. In recent weeks, South Korean officials say the North has held several failed rocket launches in an apparent setback for Pyongyang’s ambitions. It is possible that more tests could be held during or immediately after the Congress since the nuclear deterrent is a central element in Mr Kim’s claims to legitimacy.

朝鮮已加緊步伐建造能夠打到美國、裝備核彈頭的彈道導彈。今年1月，平壤方面聲稱已經成功地試驗了可以“夷平整個美國領土”的氫彈。上月，韓國官員稱，朝鮮進行的幾次火箭發射都失敗了——平壤的野心似乎遭遇挫折。在黨代會舉行期間或者緊接着黨代會之後，朝鮮可能進行更多試驗，因爲核威懾是金正恩聲索合法性的一個核心要素。

Foreign relations

對外關係

Any sign of a change in Pyongyang’s relations with its neighbour China will be watched by Washington and the rest of the region. The two countries used to refer to their relationship as being “as close as lips and teeth” but in recent years China has grown increasingly frustrated by North Korea’s belligerence and its insistence on developing nuclear weapons. Beijing is vocally opposed to this nuclear programme and has endorsed sanctions against the Kim regime but the Chinese government is also wary of doing anything that could prompt the disintegration of North Korea and potentially lead to a humanitarian disaster on its shared border.

華盛頓和該地區其他國家將密切關注，有無任何跡象顯示朝鮮與其鄰國中國的關係發生變化。中朝兩國過去曾稱彼此的關係是“脣齒相依”，但近年來，朝鮮的好戰和執意發展核武器讓中國日益不滿。北京方面在口頭上反對朝鮮核計劃，並支持對金正恩政權進行制裁，但中國政府也保持着警惕，不做任何可能促使朝鮮解體，可能導致兩國邊境上發生人道主義災難的事情。

International media coverage

國際媒體報道

With many of the world’s top media organisations visiting Pyongyang at the invitation of the North Korean government, readers should expect a barrage of global media attention over the next week. Since all foreign media activity in the country is tightly controlled and journalists are not permitted to venture anywhere without their official “minders”, these reports are likely to be limited in their ability to portray the true situation in the country.

在朝鮮政府的邀請下，將有許多世界一流媒體機構訪問朝鮮，讀者們將會在下週感受到全球媒體對此事的密集關注。由於所有外媒在該國的活動都受到嚴密控制，記者不得在沒有官方“保衛人員”陪同的情況下去任何地方，這些報道描繪該國真實情況的能力可能是有限的。