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莫迪尋求美國支持印度加入核俱樂部

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Of all Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s relationships with international leaders since taking power two years ago, none has been more striking than his so-called “bromance” with US President Barack Obama.

莫迪尋求美國支持印度加入核俱樂部

在印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi,上圖右)自兩年前上臺以來與所有國際領導人的關係中,沒有比他與美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama,上圖左)所謂的“兄弟情”更引人注目的了。

Defying fears of a frosty encounter, the two leaders’ first meeting shortly after Mr Modi’s May 2014 election victory was a huge success. US-India relations had been faltering but Mr Modi found in Mr Obama a willing partner to reinvigorate them, given Washington’s “pivot” to Asia and its efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

莫迪在2014年5月贏得大選之後不久,與奧巴馬舉行了首次會晤。外界曾擔心此次會晤將氣氛冷淡,但會晤取得了巨大成功。此前,美印關係一直磕磕絆絆,但鑑於華盛頓方面有意將戰略重心“轉向”亞洲,並努力對抗中國在該地區日益上升的影響力,莫迪發現奧巴馬有意與自己合作,改善兩國之間的關係。

Mr Modi is set to land in the US on Monday for a visit that will include his seventh face-to-face meeting with Mr Obama. His trip comes as India seeks membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which sets global rules for international trade in nuclear energy technology.

莫迪將於本週一造訪美國,其間將與奧巴馬展開第七次當面會晤。在他訪美之際,印度正尋求加入核供應國集團(Nuclear Suppliers Group),後者爲核能技術的國際貿易制定全球規則。

New Delhi is looking to the US to help overcome resistance from China — which vies with India's neighbour Pakistan as its key regional rival — and several others with strong anti-nuclear weapons policies, to shepherd India into the club.

新德里方面希望美國出手相助,克服來自中國以及其他多個實行嚴厲反核武政策的國家的阻力,指引印度加入核供應國集團。中國和印度的鄰國巴基斯坦都是印度主要的地區競爭對手。

Indian nuclear tests in 1998 prompted Pakistan to conduct its own days later. Since then an arms race between the two, neither of which is a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, has led each to amass a stockpile of more than 100 warheads.

印度在1998年進行了核試驗,促使巴基斯坦不久後也進行了核試驗。自那以來,兩國間的軍備競賽促使它們分別積累了逾100枚核彈頭——兩國均未簽署核不擴散條約。

But India also has ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy capacity, something the US supports as a means of meeting the country’s power needs while limiting its contribution to global warming.

但印度也有擴大核能產能的宏偉計劃,美國支持該計劃,因爲該計劃可在限制印度碳排放的同時滿足印度的電力需求。

Membership in the NSG — set up in response to the country’s first test of an atomic weapon in 1974 — would be the final step in a protracted US-led process to rehabilitate India from its erstwhile nuclear pariah status.

在美國主導的讓印度擺脫昔日“核賤民”地位的漫長過程中,印度加入核供應國集團將是最後一步。核供應國集團是爲應對印度1974年首次試驗覈武器而成立的。

“Once India gets into this, it will complete India’s integration into the global nuclear order,” says C Raja Mohan, director of Carnegie India. “The NSG write the rules for how to run nuclear commerce in the world. India will be part of the management of the system.”

卡內基印度中心(Carnegie India)主任C•拉賈•莫漢(C. Raja Mohan)表示:“一旦加入核供應國集團,印度融入全球核秩序的進程就將完成。核供應國集團制定着全球核商業的運營規則。印度將成爲該體系的管理者之一。”

The idea of Mr Obama batting for New Delhi at the Nuclear Suppliers Group was hardly contemplated when the two first met in September 2014, after the US lifted a decade-long ban on Mr Modi visiting the US, imposed in response to deadly religious riots in Gujarat state when Mr Modi was chief minister.

當2014年9月奧巴馬與莫迪首次會晤的時候,幾乎沒人想過奧巴馬會爭取讓印度加入核供應國集團。那時,美國剛剛取消了禁止莫迪入境的禁令——此前,因莫迪在擔任古吉拉特邦首席部長時該邦發生嚴重宗教騷亂,他在長達十年的時間裏被美國禁止入境。

US-India defence co-operation was in effect frozen after the 2013 arrest of an Indian diplomat in New York for alleged visa fraud. Meanwhile, US businesses were fed up with India’s red tape and sluggish reform. Some feared Mr Modi’s resentment at his past exclusion from the US would poison his relations with Washington.

2013年,印度一名外交官因涉嫌簽證欺詐在紐約被捕。在那之後,美印防務合作實際上降至冰點。與此同時,在印的美國企業對印度的官僚作風和拖沓的改革已經忍無可忍。一些人曾擔心,莫迪會對過去被美國禁止入境的事情懷恨在心,從而無法與華盛頓方面和睦相處。

Instead, Mr Modi made clear he was eager to do business, dramatically changing the tenor of the bilateral relationship, including reviving stalled security and military co-operation.

然而,莫迪明確表示,他渴望與美國發展商業關係,徹底改變印美雙邊關係基調,包括恢復中斷的安全和軍事合作。

“There’s never before been this kind of intense bilateral engagement of the kind that we have witnessed in the last two years,” says Mr Mohan.

莫漢表示:“我們過去兩年裏見證的那種密切的雙邊往來,是前所未有的。”

While Mr Modi is in Washington, US and Indian forces, along with the Japanese, will be in the midst of their most complex joint military exercise ever — focused on anti-submarine operations in the Sea of Japan.

當莫迪在華盛頓訪問的時候,美印軍隊以及日本軍隊將會展開它們有史以來最複雜的聯合軍事演習——演習重點是在日本海(Sea of Japan)的反潛行動。

“What Modi has demonstrated in his engagement with the US over the past two years is that the debates that were occurring in India about the centrality of the US to Indian foreign policy have been settled — at least as far as this government is concerned,” says Ashley Tellis, a former White House official who is now with the Carnegie Endowment.

現在就職於卡內基基金會(Carnegie Foundation)的前白宮官員阿什利•泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)表示:“莫迪過去兩年與美國打交道時的表現已經表明,印度國內圍繞印度外交政策是否應以美國爲核心的辯論已經了結——至少就本屆政府而言是如此。”

This Indian government, Mr Tellis says, “very clearly sees the US as being indispensable to Indian success, both in strategic and economic terms”.

泰利斯表示,本屆印度政府“顯然認爲,印度要想在戰略和經濟兩方面走向成功,是離不開美國的”。

In Washington the leaders will discuss issues including climate change and clean energy, security and defence, and unresolved trade issues. The governments are close to an agreement on military logistics co-operation and trying to complete a deal for co-production of components for aircraft carriers and jet engines.

在華盛頓,兩國領導人將會討論氣候變化和清潔能源、安全和防務以及未解決的貿易問題等事宜。兩國政府還接近就軍事後勤合作達成協議,並正努力達成一項合作生產航母和噴氣發動機部件的協議。

New Delhi, which aims to ramp up its nuclear power capacity over the next decade, is also finalising a deal with US-based Westinghouse Electric, owned by Japan’s Toshiba Electric, for the construction of nuclear power plants in South India.

因有意在今後十年提升印度的核能產能,新德里方面還將與總部位於美國的西屋電氣(Westinghouse Electric)達成協議,在印度南部建設核電站。西屋電氣是日本東芝(Toshiba)旗下子公司。

It will be the first concrete plan for a US-based nuclear power company to build in India since the signing of the groundbreaking bilateral nuclear deal between the two governments a decade ago.

這將是自兩國政府十年前開創性地簽署雙邊核協議以來,首個由總部位於美國的核能公司在印度建造核電站的具體計劃。

However, despite the bilateral strides, Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, says US business are still complaining about red tape, investment limits and other protectionist measures in India.

然而,儘管雙邊關係取得巨大進展,但美國參議院外交關係委員會(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)主席、參議員鮑勃•科克(Bob Corker)表示,美國企業仍在抱怨印度的官僚作風、投資限制以及其他保護主義措施。

“The rhetoric has far outpaced the reforms,” Mr Corker said at a recent committee hearing on the bilateral relationship, warning of what he feared was a “widening expectations gap” between the two governments.

科克在最近舉行的美印雙邊關係聽證會上表示:“改革說得多,做得少。”科克警告稱,他擔心的是兩國政府間“心理預期的差距日益擴大”。

But Sadanand Dhume, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says US officials are still generally upbeat about the prospects of progress with India.

但美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)常駐研究員薩達南德•杜梅(Sadanand Dhume)表示,美國官員仍普遍對美印關係取得進展的前景感到樂觀。

“People in the US government and corporations are still measuring Modi against the last two years of the previous administration,” Mr Dhume said. “So this government comes across as energetic, focused and filled with the can-do spirit.”

杜梅表示:“美國政府和企業界人士仍在用上屆印度政府最後兩年的表現爲標準,來衡量莫迪。因此可以說,這屆印度政府顯得充滿活力、專注、有魄力。”