爲什麼說俄羅斯經濟不會崩盤

Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.

俄羅斯盧布雖然在上週三強勁反彈，但之前幾天的暴跌，已經讓坊間充滿“俄羅斯大難臨頭”的言論；甚至有人預言，今天的俄羅斯將重蹈蘇聯的覆轍。

Don’t believe it. Russia is not the United States, and the effects of a rapidly declining currency over there are much less dramatic than they would be in the U.S.

別信這些話。俄羅斯並非美國，貨幣迅速貶值對俄羅斯的影響，遠不會像在美國那樣嚴重。

One important thing to remember is that the fall of the ruble has accompanied a precipitous decline in the per barrel price of oil. But the two are not as intimately connected as might be supposed. Yes, Russia has a resource-based economy that is hurt by oil weakness. However, oil is traded nearly everywhere in U.S. dollars, which are presently enjoying considerable strength.

重點是，在盧布匯率下跌的同時，石油價格也在驟降。但兩者之間的聯繫也許不像人們所想的那麼緊密。的確，油價下跌對俄羅斯以自然資源爲基礎的經濟產生了不利影響。然而，幾乎所有的石油交易都是以美元進行的，而目前美元則相當堅挺。

This means that Russian oil producers can sell their product in these strong dollars but pay their expenses in devalued rubles. Thus, they can make capital improvements, invest in new capacity, or do further explorations for less than it would have cost before the ruble’s value was halved against the dollar. The sector remains healthy, and able to continue contributing the lion’s share of governmental tax revenues.

也就是說，俄羅斯石油生產企業在出售產品時，可以用強勁的美元進行結算，而生產費用則用貶值的盧布來支付。由於盧布兌美元的比價已經下降了將近50%，石油企業可以改善自身的資本狀況，或者用更低的成本進行新產能投資，或者繼續進行勘探。俄羅斯石油行業依然很健康，並且能夠繼續爲政府貢獻大部分稅收。

Nor is ruble volatility going to affect the ability of most Russian companies to service their debt. Most of the dollar-denominated corporate debt that has to be rolled over in the coming months was borrowed by state companies, which have a steady stream of foreign currency revenues from oil and gas exports.

盧布的震盪也不會影響大多數俄羅斯企業的償債能力。未來幾個月中，大多數需要展期的美元債務由俄羅斯國有企業持有，而石油和天然氣出口爲這些企業提供了穩定的外匯來源。

Russian consumers will be hurt, of course, due to the higher costs of imported goods, as well as the squeeze inflation puts on their incomes. But, by the same token, exports become much more attractive to foreign buyers. A cheaper ruble boosts the profit outlook for all Russian companies involved in international trade. Additionally, when the present currency weakness is added to the ban on food imports from the European Union, the two could eventually lead to an import-substitution boom in Russia.

當然，由於進口商品價格上升，以及通脹對收入的擠壓，俄羅斯的消費者將蒙受損失。但出於同樣的原因，俄羅斯出口產品將對外國買家更具吸引力。盧布貶值提升了所有參與國際貿易的俄羅斯公司的盈利前景。

In any event, don’t expect any deprivations to inspire riots in the streets of Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity has soared since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. The people trust him. They’ll tighten their belts and there will be no widespread revolt against his policies.

不管經濟困境如何，都不太可能引發莫斯科的街頭騷亂。烏克蘭危機爆發以來，俄羅斯總統普京的支持率不斷飆升。俄羅斯人信任他。他們會勒緊褲帶，而普京的政策則不會遭到廣泛的反對。

Further, the high price of oil during the commodity supercycle, coupled with a high real exchange rate, led to a serious decline in the Russia’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors over the past 15 years. This correlation—termed by economists “Dutch disease”—lowered the Russian manufacturing sector’s share of its economy to 8% from 21% in 2000.

進一步來看，過去15年中，受處於大宗商品超級週期的高油價的影響，再加上盧布匯率處於高點，俄羅斯的製造業和農業均出現了嚴重滑坡。這種被經濟學家稱爲“荷蘭病”（ 指一國經濟中某一初級產品部門異常繁榮而導致其他部門的衰落的現象——譯註）的狀況，讓製造業在俄羅斯經濟中的比重從2000年的21%降到了現在的8%。

The longer the ruble remains weak, however, the less Dutch disease will rule the day. A lower currency means investment in Russian manufacturing and agriculture will make good economic sense again. Both should be given a real fillip.

話說回來，盧布保持低迷的時間越長，“荷蘭病”的影響就會越小。盧布貶值意味着俄羅斯製造業和農業的投資將帶來較好的經濟效益，這兩個領域都將反彈。

Low oil prices are also good for Russia’s big customers, especially China, with which Putin has been forging ever-stronger ties. If, as expected, Russia and China agree to transactions in rubles and/or yuan, that will push them even closer together and further undermine the dollar’s worldwide hegemony. Putin always thinks decades ahead, and any short-term loss of energy revenues will be far offset by the long-term gains of his economic alliances.

低油價還對俄羅斯的大客戶們有利，特別是中國，而普京也一直在加強中俄之間的聯繫。如果兩國以盧布或人民幣進行貿易結算如預期那樣達成協議，中俄就會走的更近，同時也將進一步削弱美元在全球的統治地位。普京一直着眼長遠，他建立經濟同盟所帶來的長期收益將遠遠超過能源收入方面的短期損失。

In the most recent development, the Russian central bank has reacted by raising interest rates to 17%. On the one hand, this is meant to curb inflation. On the other, it’s an direct response to the short selling speculators who’ve been attacking the ruble. They now have to pay additional premiums, so the risk/reward ratio has gone up. Speculators are going to be much warier going forward.

俄羅斯央行的最新應對措施是把利率提高到17%。一方面，這樣做是爲了遏制通脹。另一方面，這直接反擊了那些做空盧布的投機者。現在，這些投機者必須支付更高的溢價，風險/回報比已經上升。今後，投機者會更加小心。

The rise in interest rates mirrors how former U.S. Fed Chair Paul Volcker fought inflation in the U.S. in the early ‘80s. It worked for Volcker, as the U.S. stock market embarked on a historic bull run. The Russians —twhose market has been beaten down during the oil/currency crisis —hare expecting a similar result.

俄羅斯提高利率的做法和20世紀80年代初時任美聯儲主席的保羅o沃爾克應對通脹的方法如出一轍。沃爾克的措施收效良好，並帶來了美國股市前所未有的大牛市。在石油與貨幣危機重創俄羅斯股市的情況下，俄羅斯人期盼着同樣的結果。

Not that the Russian market is anywhere near as important to that country’s economy as the US’s is to its. Russians don’t play the market like Americans do. There is no Jim Kramerovsky’s Mad Money in Russia.

不過，在俄羅斯經濟中，股市的重要性遠不及美國。俄羅斯人也不像美國人那樣炒股。在俄羅斯可沒有《Mad Money》那樣的投資節目。

Russia is not some Zimbabwe-to-be. It’s sitting on a surplus of foreign assets and very healthy foreign exchange reserves of around $375 billion. Moreover, it has a strong debt-to-GDP ratio of just 13% and a large (and steadily growing) stockpile of gold.

俄羅斯不會成爲津巴布韋。它的經常賬戶處於盈餘狀態，外匯儲備保持在大約3750億美元的健康水平。同時，俄羅斯的債務佔GDP比率很低，只有13%；而黃金儲備充足且保持穩定增長。

And there is Russia’s energy relationship with the EU, particularly Germany. Putin showed his clout when he axed the South Stream pipeline and announced that he would run a pipeline through Turkey instead. The cancellation barely lasted long enough to speak it before the EU caved and offered Putin what he needed to get South Stream back on line. Germany is never going to let Turkey be a gatekeeper of European energy security. With winter arriving, the EU’s dependence on Russian oil and gas will take center stage, and the union will become a stabilizing influence on Russia once again.

俄羅斯和歐盟在能源方面也有聯繫，特別是和德國。普京曾強硬的取消了與歐盟合作的南流（South Stream）天然氣管道項目，並宣稱將取道土耳其另建一條管道。話音未落，歐盟方面就做出讓步滿足了普京的要求，以確保這個項目重新上馬。德國永遠也不會讓土耳其在歐洲能源安全方面發揮“守門員”的作用。隨着冬季臨近，歐盟對俄羅斯油氣的依賴將成爲主導因素，而歐盟將再次爲穩定俄羅斯局勢而施加影響。

In short, while the current situation is not working in Russia’s favor, the country is far from down for the count. It will arrest the ruble’s slide and keep pumping oil. Its economy will contract but not crumble. The harsh reality is that American shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians (or the Saudis), since their costs of production are much higher. Many US shale wells will become uneconomic if oil falls much further. And it they start shutting down, it’ll be disastrous for the American economy, since the growth of the shale industry has underpinned 100% of US economic growth for the past several years.

簡而言之，儘管當前情況不利，但俄羅斯遠未倒下。它將止住盧布的下滑勢頭並繼續開採石油。俄羅斯經濟將萎縮，但不會崩盤。而嚴峻的現實是，面對油價直線下降，生產成本居高的美國頁岩油氣公司要擔心的東西遠遠超過俄羅斯（或者沙特）。如果油價繼續大幅度下跌，美國的許多頁岩油井將難以爲繼。而如果這些油井開始停產，美國經濟就會面臨災難，因爲這幾年美國經濟的增長全靠頁岩油氣行業支撐。

Those waving their arms about the ruble might do better to look at countries facing real currency crises, like oil-dependent Venezuela and Nigeria, as well as Ukraine. That’s where the serious trouble is going to come.

對盧布貶值大驚小怪的人也許更應該看看那些真正面臨貨幣危機的國家，比如高度依賴石油的委內瑞拉和尼日利亞，還有烏克蘭。這些纔是將要出現大麻煩的地方。（財富中文網）