西方歐盟不應主動出擊 與俄羅斯爲敵

The Soviet Union’s sunset years hardly felt like an innocent age to those who lived through them, but to recall the hopes and aspirations of that era is to rue the naiveties of those days. “A common European house” was how President Mikhail Gorbachev pictured the continent’s future; “a Europe whole and free”, in the words of George HW Bush, his American counterpart. But, as the tussle over Ukraine has shown, Russia and the west are rivals once again. The ceasefire signed on September 5 gives both sides a chance to overcome their own illusions. They should take it, lest the conflict become a direct military confrontation.

對曾經親身經歷過那個年代的人而言，蘇聯(Soviet Union)日薄西山那些年很難算“純真年代”。但回想那個時代的希望和憧憬，我們一定會爲那時的天真感到後悔。當時的俄羅斯總統米哈伊爾•戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)這樣描述歐洲大陸的未來——“一個共同的歐洲大家園”，用當時的美國總統老布什(George HW Bush)的話來說則是——“一個統一而自由的歐洲”。然而，圍繞烏克蘭的爭吵顯示出，俄羅斯和西方又一次成爲了對手。9月5日簽訂的停火協議給了雙方一個克服各自幻覺的機會。他們應該抓住這個機會，以免衝突演變成直接的軍事對抗。

Western leaders seem to believe their own propaganda. A failed Ukraine, they suggest, could be cradled into western Europe and become democratic and prosperous – and maybe it could, if they waited 20 years and could count on energetic support from Russia. But Moscow, they are convinced, is hell-bent on grabbing land, a hunger from which it can be distracted only through the infliction of pain. Hence the sanctions, the war of disinformation and the reinvigoration of Nato as a military force.

西方領袖似乎相信了他們自己的宣傳。他們提出，一個失敗的烏克蘭可以被西歐抱在懷裏，變得民主和富強。或許吧，如果他們能再等20年，並且能夠指望俄羅斯的大力支持。但他們確信，俄羅斯政府鐵了心要搶奪地盤，除非吃到苦頭，否則不會收斂。因此，西方對俄羅斯實施了制裁，打起了假消息戰，並努力重振北約(NATO)作爲軍事組織的雄風。

It is a strategy that rests on misunderstanding and miscalculation. The misunderstanding is that this is, at root, a stand-off over Ukraine. To Russians, it is something far more important: a struggle to stop others expanding their sphere of control into territories they believe are vital to Russia’s survival.

西方的這種戰略是基於誤解和誤判。誤解是這個問題在本質上是圍繞烏克蘭的對峙。對俄羅斯而言，這是個重要得多的問題：這是一場鬥爭，目的是阻止其他人將勢力範圍擴大到在俄羅斯看來對其生存至關重要的地盤。

It is a miscalculation because Russia is far stronger, and the west far weaker, than many imagine. The west that Russia now faces is not the self-confident alliance that proclaimed itself victor of the cold war. It is a directionless gaggle, beset with economic insecurities and losing sight of its moral convictions. America and its allies once held the future in their hands, but at the beginning of this Asian century they have let it slip through their fingers. Their crowning accomplishment was globalisation – and they are destroying it, with economic sanctions they incoherently describe as instruments of self-defence.

之所以說西方誤判，是因爲與許多人的想象相比，俄羅斯要強大得多，而西方要弱小得多。俄羅斯如今面對的“西方”，已不再是宣告自己打贏了冷戰的那個自信的聯盟。如今的西方如一羣迷途的羔羊，被經濟方面的不安全感所困擾，而且忘記了自己的道德準繩。美國及其盟友一度掌握未來，但在這個“亞洲世紀”拉開帷幕之際，他們讓未來從指縫間溜走了。他們的最高成就是全球化，而經濟制裁正在葬送這項成就——他們無法自圓其說地稱制裁是自衛工具。

These sanctions will hurt ordinary Russians, but they are helping to rouse our country from its slumber. True, Russia is smaller than the Soviet Union was, and a romantic belief in the free market has led it to take some wrong turns. The country’s elite, enjoying the consumerist pleasures afforded by new wealth, had long been at rest. But President Vladimir Putin harbours no illusions about the west. Russian citizens, unlike the disillusioned Soviets who were never far from hunger, know what they are ready to struggle for. Our country is finding its place. Compare the Soviet armed forces, lumbering and expensive, with the nimble military of Russia today.

這些制裁會對普通俄羅斯人造成傷害，但制裁正在將我們的國家從沉睡中喚醒。誠然，俄羅斯比蘇聯要小，對自由市場的浪漫信念曾導致俄羅斯走彎路。這個國家的精英，享受着新的財富買來的消費主義愉悅，早已變得安於現狀。但弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)總統對西方不抱幻想。跟當年從未遠離飢餓、幻想破滅的蘇聯民衆不同，如今的俄羅斯民衆知道自己願意爲什麼而奮鬥。我們的國家正在找到自己的位置。當年蘇聯軍隊笨重、耗資巨大，相比之下，如今俄羅斯軍隊靈活精悍。

A small minority of my compatriots oppose Moscow’s hard line. Twenty years ago it was the reverse: a minority opposed rapprochement with the west. But that was before the west rediscovered the politics of Versailles and decided Russia had to be stopped at all costs. With encouragement, these foreign powers imagined, the new bourgeoisie would revolt against Mr Putin. Instead, they are rallying around him.

在俄羅斯，反對政府強硬路線的民衆如今只佔少數。20年前，情況是反過來的：反對與西方重新修好的人是少數派。但後來，西方重拾凡爾賽條約式政治，下定決心要不惜一切代價遏制俄羅斯。西方大國以爲，只要加以鼓勵，俄羅斯的新中產階級會奮起反抗普京。事實恰恰相反，他們高度擁護普京。

State propaganda plays a role, but Russians have access to western media via the internet and the more of it they see the more they unite around the Kremlin. This is no time for denial: westerners need to understand how their governments made a potential foe out of what was once an aspiring ally. Russia will not yield. This has become a matter of our nation’s life and death.

官方宣傳發揮了一定作用，但俄羅斯人能夠通過互聯網接觸到西方媒體——他們看得越多，就越緊密地團結在俄羅斯政府周圍。不能再拒絕面對現實：西方人必須理解，他們的政府將一個曾經渴望成爲盟友的國家，變成了自己潛在的敵人。俄羅斯不會屈服。這已變成關乎我們國家存亡的事情。

A lasting peace in Europe is a noble aim. It can be achieved only through mutual respect and an accommodation of legitimate interests. Even for a europhile such as me, it will be hard to argue for political union with a Europe that is abandoning, one hopes temporarily, Christianity and traditional norms. But our goal must be to create a common space in which people, capital and energy can move freely between Europe, with its old ties to the US, and a Russia that is embracing Asia.

在歐洲實現持久和平是個崇高的目標。只有通過相互尊重、容納對方的合理利益訴求，才能實現這個目標。即便是我這樣一個親歐者，也很難主張，我們應與這個正在拋棄基督教信仰和傳統準則（希望這只是暫時的）的歐洲結成政治同盟。但我們的目標必須是創造一個共同的空間，讓資本和能源能夠在與美國保留傳統紐帶的歐洲和正在擁抱亞洲的俄羅斯之間自由流動。

Meanwhile, we must avoid visiting the horrors of war on the people of Ukraine. If we fail to do that, we will have abandoned another European value: reason.

與此同時，我們必須避免讓戰爭的恐懼籠罩烏克蘭人民。不這樣做，那就是拋棄了另一項歐洲價值觀：理性。