中國一線城市房價飆漲加劇樓市分化

House prices in China’s leading cities surged as much as 63 per cent in the year to March while lower-tier cities saw prices tumble, highlighting the country’s increasingly bifurcated market.

今年第一季度，中國一線城市房價飆升，最高漲幅高達63%，二、三線城市房價卻出現下跌，凸顯中國房地產市場分化加深。

In places such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, soaring home prices and subdued wage growth have sparked a frenzy of borrowing — estimated at an additional $48bn in January alone — prompting city governments, wary of a repeat of the US subprime crisis, to crack down.

在上海、深圳等城市，房價飆升和薪資上漲低迷引發了貸款狂潮，估計僅今年1月新增貸款就達480億美元。各城市政府擔心重蹈美國次貸危機，紛紛出臺抑制政策。

These measures, introduced in January and including curbs on financing for downpayments and second homes, have had little impact so far in the “tier-one” cities. Year-on-year price rises in March were as much as 63 per cent in Shenzhen and 30 per cent in Shanghai, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ monthly 70-city property price survey.

這些措施包括限制首付及二套房的貸款，但它們從1月出臺至今，對一線城市影響不大。中國國家統計局對70個大中城市房地產價格月度調查顯示，3月深圳房地產價格同比上漲近63%，上海同比漲幅30%。

“The [nationwide] rate of increase in prices of new and existing residential buildings has significantly accelerated from the previous month, by 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively,” wrote Liu Jianwei, an NBS statistician.

國家統計局統計師劉建偉在報告中寫道：“70個大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅價格環比綜合平均漲幅均明顯擴大，分別比上月擴大0.6和1.2個百分點。”

New mortgage borrowing increased 60 per cent in the first quarter year-on-year, according to Faye Gao, analyst at Bernstein Research. The research house estimates new lending reached Rmb313bn ($48bn) in March, second only to this January over the past five years.

伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)分析師Faye Gao表示，今年一季度中國新增按揭貸款同比上升60%。該研究機構估計3月新增貸款達到3130億元人民幣（合480億美元），過去5年單月增幅排行第二，僅次於今年1月。

The main reason for the uncontrolled price rises is the monetary easing of the past two years, according to Rosealea Yao of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research group. The People’s Bank of China has been cutting its benchmark interest rates since 2012, making mortgage-lending cheaper.

研究機構龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的咬麗薔(Rosealea Yao)認爲，房價上漲失控的主要原因是過去兩年的貨幣寬鬆政策。中國央行(People’s Bank of China)從2012年起一直在下調基準利率，令按揭貸款越來越便宜。

“When you create a lot of liquidity, it flows to the hottest markets,” said Ms Yao, who suspects easy credit and property speculation have stoked sharp price rises.

咬麗薔表示：“當你創造了大量流動性，它就會流向最熱的市場”。她猜測寬鬆的信貸和房地產投機引發了房價大幅上漲。

Homebuyers have circumvented clampdowns on downpayment financing, which prohibit use of peer-to-peer lending among other funding sources, by finding ever more novel ways to obtain the 20 per cent of value deposit requirement.

購房者找到了越來越新穎的方式來支付20%的首付，規避了對首付貸款的抑制政策，這些政策禁止使用個人對個人(P2P)等貸款渠道。

Last month Securities Daily, a Chinese newspaper, reported on one homebuyer in Shenzhen using 20 credit cards to borrow the money for his downpayment.

據《證券日報》(Securities Daily)上月報道，深圳一名購房者用20張信用卡借到了首付所需費用。

Among other tier one cities, prices in Beijing were up 28 per cent year-on-year for existing homes and 18 per cent for new builds.

北京二手住宅價格同比上漲28%，新建商品住宅同比上漲18%。

By contrast, prices in less desirable “tier-three” cities such as Dandong and Jinzhou, down 3-4 per cent, were depressed by build-up of unsold stock.

而丹東、錦州等“三線”城市受積壓樓盤影響，房價同比下降3-4%。

“The authorities now face a difficult task of taming the red-hot markets of first-tier cities and some second-tier cities, while continuing to support lower-tier cities,” James MacDonald, director of China Research at Savills Property Services, wrote in a note.

第一太平戴維斯物業顧問(Savills Property Services)中國區主管詹姆斯•麥克唐納(James MacDonald)在報告中寫道：“有關部門現在面臨着一項艱鉅任務，既要抑制一線城市和部分二線城市過熱的市場，還要繼續支持二三線城市的房地產市場。”