關注社會:鐵嶺新城變鬼城 中國城市化之困

When this small city in northeastern China launched a plan to build a satellite city six miles down the road, it got off to a promising start.

當鐵嶺這個位於中國東北部的小城市計劃在距離該市6英里（9.65公里）的地方興建一座衛星城時，這個城市翻開了前景光明的一頁。

Urban planners spent millions of yuan to clean up surrounding marshland that had become a dumping ground for the city's untreated sewage. A pristine environment, they hoped, would help attract the businesses that would raise incomes and swell the population.

城市規劃者耗資人民幣數百上千萬元來清理周邊已經成爲未處理污水排放地的沼澤區。他們希望一個嶄新的環境能夠吸引企業在這裏安營紮寨，從而提高居民收入和增加這裏的人口數量。

Four years later, Tieling New City is virtually a ghost town.

然而四年後，鐵嶺新城實際上已經變成一個鬼城。

Clean waterways weave among deserted residential and government buildings. Housing blocks that won recognition from the United Nations for providing good affordable homes are almost empty. The businesses that were supposed to create local employment haven't materialized. Without jobs, there is little incentive for anybody to move here.

清潔的水道蜿蜒於空曠的住宅和政府建築之間。在曾經因提供質優價廉住房而獲得聯合國(United Nations)認可的住宅區，幾乎無人居住。引進企業創造就業的計劃也未能落實。沒有工作機會，人們就沒有遷居至此的動力。

Tieling symbolizes the enormous challenges Chinese Premier Li Keqiang faces as he touts urbanization─a process analysts expect will see 250 million people move from rural areas to cities over 20 years─as the force that will ensure his country's economy keeps growing well into the future.

鐵嶺的情況彰顯出中國總理李克強面臨的巨大挑戰。他認爲城市化是確保未來中國經濟持續增長的推動力。分析師們預計，未來20年，在城市化進程中將有2.5億人口從農村地區遷移至城市。

'Urbanization will not only drive tremendous consumption and investment demand, and create employment opportunities, but directly affect the well-being of the people,' Mr. Li said in March during his first news conference as Chinese premier.

李克強3月份在當選中國總理後的首個新聞發佈會上說，城市化不僅會推動巨大的消費和投資需求並增加就業機會，還會直接影響到人民的生活質量。

Mr. Li has yet to present a detailed vision of how to achieve his economic goals.

李克強尚未公佈一份有關如何實現他經濟目標的詳細計劃。

In theory, urbanization stimulates growth because city dwellers typically earn more than their rural counterparts, allowing them to spend more on consumer goods and services.

理論上說，城市化之所以能刺激經濟增長，是因爲城市居民的收入通常高於農村居民，他們在消費品和服務方面的支出也就更多。

For the government to realize that payoff, though, it must create jobs that will draw people into the cities. Tieling underscores the difficulty.

但政府要想實現這樣的結果，則必須能夠創造出就業機會，將人們吸引到城市。鐵嶺的情況凸顯了這種難度。

Among the few business owners lured to a development park in Tieling New City is Bo Yuquan, the middle-aged owner of a flooring store.

薄玉全是鐵嶺新城一個開發區吸引到的爲數不多的幾個企業主之一。這位中年企業主經營着一家地板材料商店。

'Where are the people? There's no one here,' said Mr. Bo. 'I'll be out of business soon. My staff and I are discussing moving to Beijing to find work.'

薄玉全說，人都在哪兒？這裏根本沒有人。他說，他不久就會關閉店鋪，他和員工正在商量去北京找工作。

Said Hu Jie, the designer of the new city's landscape: 'In 10 to 20 years, Tieling could be a good development, but only if you can manage to bring businesses in.'

鐵嶺新城景觀設計者胡潔說，未來10到20年，鐵嶺可能會有不錯的發展，但前提是你能設法把企業吸引來。

The Chinese export sector drove earlier waves of urbanization but is thought unlikely to do so again, what with demand still weak in developed economies and rising costs making Chinese goods less competitive globally. Massive overcapacity in many industries, including steel, solar and shipbuilding, will further constrain job creation.

中國出口行業推動了此前的城市化浪潮，但考慮到發達經濟體需求依舊疲軟，並且成本上升令中國製造的產品在全球失去競爭力，出口行業已被認爲不大可能再度發揮這樣的作用。包括鋼鐵、太陽能和造船在內的許多工業領域產能嚴重過剩，這會進一步抑制就業增長。

In recent years, cities have filled the gap with construction jobs created by a nationwide investment boom. While that has kept China's economy buoyant, it also has thrown up empty suburbs and ghost cities like Tieling New City across the country.

近年來，很多城市利用全國投資熱潮創造的建築就業填補了這個缺口。此舉維持中國經濟呈現出欣欣向榮的景象，但同時也在全國各地造就了沒有人煙的郊區和鐵嶺新城這樣的鬼城。

The investment boom has threatened to fuel inflation and bog down the financial sector with bad loans, particularly if people don't move in and bring the promised economic dividend.

這股投資熱潮可能會令通脹加劇，並帶來壞賬，使金融業陷入困境，特別是如果人們不喬遷新城、無法帶來承諾中的經濟紅利的話。

China has a record of building first and creating demand later, notably in Shanghai, where a decade ago the towering new Pudong business district initially failed to attract tenants but later became a symbol of China's success.

中國有先蓋樓後創造需求的做法，最明顯的就是在上海。10年前，高樓林立的浦東新商業區最初無法吸引到租戶，但後來卻成爲了中國成功的象徵。

Many smaller cities lack the pulling power of Shanghai.

很多小城市缺乏上海那樣的拉動力。

'With more and better job opportunities in higher-tier cities, many lower-tier cities have actually been experiencing a net outflow of population, while land sales [to home builders] there increased rapidly, exacerbating the housing oversupply,' wrote Credit Suisse property analyst Du Jinsong in a recent note.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地產分析師杜勁鬆不久前在一份報告中寫道：由於一、二線城市有更多更好的就業機會，很多三、四線城市的人口實際上一直在淨流出，同時那些地方出售給開發商的土地快速增加，令房屋供過於求的情況雪上加霜。

According to population data collected by Mr. Du on 287 Chinese cities, about two-thirds, mostly smaller urban centers, had fewer residents than people who were registered to live there, suggesting people have been leaving their home cities.

據杜勁鬆收集的有關中國287個城市的人口數據顯示，大約三分之二的城市（多半是規模較小的中心城市）常住人口少於戶籍人口，這表明人們一直在離開家鄉城市。

Tieling, a city of about 340,000, launched its plan to build a new city in 2005, part of a broader strategy by the Liaoning provincial leadership to revive a local rust-belt economy.

鐵嶺是個有約34萬人口的城市，2005年啓動了修建新城的計劃。這也是遼寧省領導層振興當地老工業經濟戰略的一部分。

The plan was to stimulate growth around Tieling and six other nearby cities by building highways and high-speed rail lines connecting them with Shenyang, a metropolis that is about a 90-minute drive south of Tieling.

該計劃原是要通過修建高速公路和鐵路將鐵嶺和附近其它六個城市與遼寧省會瀋陽相連，從而刺激周邊經濟增長。瀋陽位於鐵嶺以南，驅車大約90分鐘。

The idea was that companies would be drawn to the satellite cities by cheaper land and lower labor costs, while still enjoying proximity to the region's largest city. Tieling's new city was expected to house 60,000 residents in 2010 and later triple that number.

當時的想法是，企業會因地價便宜和勞動成本低廉而被吸引到那些衛星城，同時還能毗鄰東北最大城市瀋陽。原先曾預計鐵嶺新城到2010年有常住人口6萬人，之後再增加兩倍。

In 2009 the wetlands' rejuvenation was complete, along with the new city's infrastructure, canals, government offices and some apartment buildings. The new city won a special mention from the U.N. Human Settlements Program for 'providing a well-developed and modern living space.'

2009年，溼地恢復工程竣工，同時新城的基建、水渠、政府大樓和一些公寓樓也相繼建成。鐵嶺新城因爲提供了成熟完善的現代化生活空間還得到了聯合國人居署(U.N. Human Settlements Program)的特別表揚。

But come dusk, the lights in row after row of apartment buildings remain off. Salespeople, security guards and the small smattering of residents say almost all of the accommodation is empty.

但每到傍晚，一排排的公寓樓都沒有燈光亮起。銷售人員、保安和極少數住在這裏的居民說，幾乎所有房屋都沒有人住。

A development park set up to attract providers of back-office services to financial firms, such as data storage, was supposed to employ 15,000 to 20,000 people by the end of the this year, according to the park's website.

某開發區網站顯示，該開發區到今年底本應僱用1.5萬至2萬人。其建立初衷是想吸引爲金融企業提供後臺服務的公司，如數據存儲等。

Situated on the outskirts of the new city, the park is easy to miss. It is home to only two companies, one of which, a bank office, employs fewer than 20, said its security guard.

這個坐落於鐵嶺新城郊區的開發區很不起眼。保安說，現在只有兩個公司在這裏落戶，其中一個是銀行辦事處，僱用了不到20人。

Another park filled with warehouses outside the new city fares little better. Marketed as a trading hub for China's northeast region, it was supposed to foster a logistics industry by taking advantage of Tieling's location near two major highways and a port, with rail links to Shenyang and the rest of the northeast.

另一個位於鐵嶺新城以外、到處建有倉庫的開發區也好不到哪去。該開發區曾以東北貿易樞紐的口號被推向市場，原以爲可利用鐵嶺的地理優勢培育出一個物流產業。鐵嶺靠近兩大主要高速公路和一個港口，且與瀋陽和東北其它地方有鐵路相連。

Although most of the shop space has been sold, the park lies largely empty except for a handful of wholesalers. Meanwhile, there are plans for the park to double in size, an expansion that would include more apartment buildings.

雖然大多數店面都已售出，但園區基本上還是空蕩蕩的，只有少數幾家批發商。與此同時，有關方面還有將園區規模擴大一倍的計劃，包括興建更多的公寓樓。

'The park doesn't have any advantages over Shenyang's wholesale markets,' said Liu Wei, a researcher at the government-backed Institute of Comprehensive Transportation, who worked on Tieling's plans for a logistics center.

政府支持的綜合運輸研究所研究人員劉偉，這個園區相對於瀋陽的批發市場沒有任何優勢。劉偉參與了鐵嶺的物流中心規劃。

So far, the new city's greatest success has been a zone dedicated to building special-purpose vehicles such as snowplows.

迄今爲止，這座新城最爲成功的是一個專門用於生產掃雪機等特殊用途車輛的區域。

According to a statement on the Tieling government website in April 2012, the park created 5,000 jobs for rural workers. But it also said the workers had bought apartments in a residential compound across the road from the park, far from the city centers of both old and new Tieling.

據鐵嶺市政府網站2012年4月的一份聲明，該園區爲農民工創造了5,000個工作崗位。但聲明還說，工人們在園區馬路對面的一個居民區買了房，遠離鐵嶺老城和新城的市中心。

The few rural migrants who live in the new city used to farm the land it was built on. Some now work for the new city shoveling snow and sweeping streets.

居住在新城的極少數農民工曾經在園區所在的土地上耕作。一些人如今在新城從事剷雪和街道清掃的工作。

Local authorities have tried to boost the population by pushing people from the old city into the new. That effort has involved moving government offices into the new city. But so far, most government workers still commute from their existing homes.

地方當局試圖增加這裏的人口，促使人們從老城搬到新城。該舉措包括將政府辦公室遷至新城。但到目前爲止，大多數政府職員仍然從原先的家通勤上下班。

The effort also has involved closing schools in the old city and the greater Tieling county and corralling the students into newly built schools in the new city.

增加人口的舉措還包括關閉老城和範圍更大的鐵嶺縣的學校，將學生們集中到新城的新建學校裏。

According to Sun Baocai, the office director of the Tieling Bureau of Education, 50,000 students are enrolled in classes in the new city, ranging from elementary classes to vocational courses.

據鐵嶺教育局辦公室主任孫寶財說，新城的學校有5萬名學生入學，包括從小學到職業教育課程在內的各類班級。

The hope is that parents will move to be closer to the schools. But many residents of the old city say that despite the new city's pleasant environment, its lack of services and absence of a community deter them from moving.

有關方面寄希望於家長會搬到離學校更近的地方。但許多老城居民說，雖然新城環境不錯，但服務匱乏，也沒有社區，因此他們不想搬過去。

Against all this, Tieling is choosing to keep building. The municipal government has rolled out plans to spend a further $1.3 billion on projects in the new city this year, including an art gallery, gymnasium and indoor swimming pool.

儘管有以上種種情況，鐵嶺仍然選擇繼續建設。市政府推出了今年在新城項目上繼續開支13億美元的計劃，建設項目包括美術館、體育館和室內游泳池。

That is despite municipal finances coming under increasing stress.

而這是在該市財政面臨持續壓力的情況下作出的決定。

'Financing costs are rising all the time, and raising capital has become even more difficult,' the Tieling city government said in its budget forecast for 2013. 'Some long-term problems and imbalances have accumulated in the management of the city's finances.' It didn't say how it planned to fund the new buildings.

鐵嶺市政府在2013年預算預測中說，融資成本不斷上升，籌集資金愈加困難。市財政管理過程中積累了一些長期問題和不平衡現象。市政府沒有說計劃如何爲新建項目融資。

Cui Xinzi runs a stall selling leather jackets at the only shopping center in the new city. Despite having bought an apartment there three years ago, she still lives in the old city and commutes.

催信子在新城唯一的購物中心經營着一個銷售皮夾克的攤位。雖然她三年前在那裏買了一套公寓，但仍然住在老城，每天往返。

Ms. Cui likes the idea of retiring to the new city but isn't optimistic its population will increase. 'It still needs more time, but it's really hard to say,' she said with a sigh. 'They're building a new shopping center, so I hope so.'

催信子喜歡退休後去新城的想法，但對於新城人口將會增長並不樂觀。她嘆息說，還需要更多時間，但真的很難說。他們在修建一個新的購物中心，因此我希望如此。