滬市開盤跳漲 15分鐘內漲幅收窄一半

Beijing managed to get a pop at the Shanghai open, but will it last?

中國政府成功策動上海股市開盤跳漲，但上漲勢頭能否持續下去？

A 7.8 per cent climb in the first minute of trading on the Shanghai Composite couldn't be maintained. Within 15 minutes the gain fell to 3.8 per cent, suggesting investors are using the pop to sell into the rally.

上證綜指在開盤後的頭一分鐘內跳漲7.8%，但這一漲幅沒有維持多久，不到15分鐘，漲幅就收窄到3.8%，說明投資者正在利用這一上漲出貨。

At Citi, analysts said the stabilisation measures rolled out by Beijing policy makers were likely to support sentiment in some circles. But they foresee levered up buyers continuing to wind down trades:

花旗銀行(Citi)分析師表示，中國政府政策制定者出臺的穩定股市舉措，很可能會在一段時間內內提振市場信心。不過，他們預計槓桿投資者會繼續減倉。

"Despite the sentiment help, we believe continued deleverage, and possible reform concerns given recent administrative intervention, will cap index upside. Our calculation suggests only one-fourth margin buys have been forced out so far," they wrote.

他們寫道：“儘管這些舉措對提振市場信心有幫助，但我們相信去槓桿過程仍會繼續下去。此外，考慮到近期中國政府的行政干預，人們可能會對中國的改革產生擔憂，這也會限制指數的上漲。我們的計算顯示，到目前爲止，只有四分之一的融資買盤被強行平倉。”

Citi calculates the Margin Buy balance has dropped 16 per cent from the peak. But see the second chart below: margin financing is still way up on the year. "Deleveraging still has a long way to go," they said.

據花旗計算，中國股市融資餘額已較峯值減少16%。但我們從下方第二張表中可以看出：股市融資餘額仍大大高於一年前。花旗分析師表示：“去槓桿仍有很長的路要走。”