退出TPP《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》對美國不利

The ultimate impact of Donald Trump’s announced intention to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is yet to be seen.

唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)宣佈有意讓美國退出貿易協議《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)的最終影響尚不得而知。

But it is clear that it will give China an opening to assume economic leadership in Asia and may be treated by leaders across the region as a sign of America’s retreat from the responsibilities of world leadership.

但是此舉明顯將給中國一個爭奪亞洲經濟領導權的突破口，還可能被該地區各國領導人視爲美國放棄世界領袖責任的跡象。

The global progress of American economic and political values has been the dominant trend in human events since the end of the second world war.

自從二戰結束以來，美國向全球輸出經濟和政治價值觀的進展一直是人類事件的主導性趨勢。

The US and its allies prospered greatly from it and are immeasurably more secure than in the prewar world,

美國及其盟友藉助這種趨勢蓬勃發展，安全程度遠遠高於戰前世界。

when we tried to isolate ourselves with, among other follies, protectionist trade policies.

二戰前，除其他種種愚蠢行爲外，各國還試圖用貿易保護主義政策自我孤立起來。

To be sure, the changes wrought by liberalised international trade have not all been positive.

沒錯，國際貿易自由化帶來的變化並不都是積極的。

Together with technology-driven productivity gains, it has contributed to job losses in industries and communities where manufacturing was once the main support of a thriving middle class.

加上技術進步推動的生產率提升，貿易自由化在那些製造業曾經是欣欣向榮的中產階級的主要支撐的產業和社區加劇了就業崗位消失。

The US is still a leading manufacturer but fewer Americans are employed in those industries.

美國仍然是領先的製造業大國，但是在這些行業就業的美國人日益減少。

That trend will continue whether or not we sign another trade agreement because productivity gains will continue.

無論我們是否簽訂又一份貿易協定，這種趨勢都將持續下去，因爲生產率仍然在不斷提高。

Most lost manufacturing jobs were made obsolete by technology innovations.

製造業崗位的消失大部分源於技術創新。

But turning aside opportunities to sell more goods and services overseas will add to job losses, not stem them.

但是，放棄向海外出售更多商品和服務的機會，將進一步加重（而非遏止）就業崗位消失。

One in 12 American jobs is dependent on international trade.

美國每12個就業崗位中就有1個依賴於國際貿易。

To argue against the global economy is like stating opposition to the weather — it continues whether you like it or not.

反對全球化經濟，就像跟天氣唱反調——無論你喜不喜歡，它都我行我素。

More than 95 per cent of the world’s consumers live outside the US.

世界上95%以上的消費者生活在美國以外。

The global economy will become more accessible and competitive, whether we try to remove trade barriers or impose them.

無論我們移除還是設置貿易壁壘，全球經濟都會變得越來越開放並具有競爭性。

That is why withdrawing from TPP will hurt our ability to compete.

這就是退出TPP將有損美國競爭力的原因。

Barriers to trade in America are lower than in the other TPP countries and regulatory standards are higher.

美國的貿易壁壘低於TPP其他成員國，而監管標準高於其他國家。

TPP would have removed more than 18,000 tariffs that had made our exports more expensive and less competitive in 11 Pacific Rim markets.

TPP將取消超過1.8萬項關稅，這些關稅使得我們向環太平洋地區11個市場出口的成本更高、降低了我們的競爭力。

More importantly, the agreement was designed as a model for future trade agreements by focusing on non-tariff barriers to trade, pursuing regulatory reform in areas such as intellectual property, labour and environment laws, and limiting government support for state-owned companies.

更重要的是，該協定從設計上聚焦於非關稅貿易壁壘；推動在知識產權、勞動力和環境法律等領域進行監管改革；以及限制政府對國有企業的支持，藉此成爲未來貿易協定的榜樣。

Beyond its economic benefits, TPP was to serve as an important part of the foundation of American leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.

除經濟利益外，TPP還是美國在亞太地區確立領導地位的重要舉措。

It would strengthen US alliances there and build new relationships based on mutual economic interests and increasingly shared geopolitical ones.

它將強化美國在該地區的同盟關係，以相互經濟利益和日益共享的地緣政治利益爲基礎打造新關係。

Its collapse will benefit China.

該協定夭折將有利於中國。

Beijing is pushing its own trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, with many countries that would have been in TPP.

北京方面正在推動自己的貿易協定《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》(RCEP)，其中很多國家原本會加入TPP。

It is a less advantageous agreement than TPP for all the countries involved save China but it offers Beijing an easier way of sealing its regional ascendancy than its heavy-handed claims on disputed islands in the South China Sea.

除了中國本身以外，RCEP對其他成員國的好處不如TPP，但是，相比中國在南中國海爭議島嶼上的強硬主張，RCEP給中國提供了一個實現區域優勢的更容易方法。

Politics abhors a vacuum and Asian countries will gravitate towards China if US influence is perceived as declining.

政治厭惡真空，如果亞洲各國認爲美國影響力正在減弱，它們會向中國傾斜。

Rumours of the next administration’s intention to reduce the US military presence in Asia are shaping that perception, too, to China’s advantage.

有關特朗普政府有意縮減美國在亞洲軍事存在的傳言，也在促使各國形成這種看法，讓中國得利。

It is a fool’s errand to try to recreate a mythical time when Fortress America was impregnable, unaffected by the world’s troubles.

嘗試重建孤立主義的美國堡壘、不受外部世界種種麻煩影響的傳奇時代，是徒勞無益的蠢事。

Instead, we should have faith in American leadership and the power of our values, including the advocacy of free trade, which have made the world and us safer, freer and richer.

相反，我們應該相信美國領導力和美國價值觀（包括主張自由貿易，使整個世界和我國都更加安全、自由和富有）的力量。