跨太平洋夥伴關係協定 TPP締結在望

If all goes to plan in the coming months, Mike Froman, US trade representative, is set to land arguably the biggest prize in the country’s recent economic history.

如果未來幾個月一切按計劃進行，美國貿易代表邁克•弗羅曼(Mike Froman)即將收穫該國近期經濟史上可能最重要的獎品。

The 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, now nearing conclusion almost seven years after the US joined negotiations, is daunting in size and scope and dwarfs the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico that went into effect two decades ago.

有12國參與的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）在美國加入談判近7年後正接近達成，其規模和範圍都很驚人，讓20年前生效的美國與加拿大和墨西哥簽訂的《北美自由貿易協議》(North American Free Trade Agreement)相形見絀。

Some 40 per cent of global output will be covered by the TPP, including two of the top three economies in the world (the US and Japan). It will significantly lower tariffs and other trade barriers around the Pacific Rim on everything from rice and steaks to cars and chemicals. It will contain enforceable standards on labour and the environment. It will set benchmarks by delineating rules for state-owned enterprises in the developing world and the digital economy. It will leave rivals in Beijing and Brussels salivating.

TPP將涵蓋全球約40%的產出，包括全球最大三個經濟體中的兩個（美國和日本）。它將大大降低環太平洋地區很多商品的關稅和其他貿易壁壘，從大米、牛排到汽車和化學品。它將納入勞動力和環境方面的強制性標準。它將設定基準，爲發展中國家的國有企業和數字經濟制定規則。它將讓中國和歐盟的競爭對手羨慕不已。

Yet the TPP is being derided by many inside President Barack Obama’s Democratic party and by the unions it has relied on for its base. At a time when Mr Obama is putting a new “middle-class economics” and the fight against inequality at the centre of his agenda, his push for new trade agreements causes many on his side of politics to squirm.

然而，美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)所在民主黨內部的很多人，以及民主黨所仰仗的工會，正嘲笑該協定。在奧巴馬將新的“中產階級經濟學”以及反對不平等列爲其執政議程核心之際，他對於新的貿易協定的推動，讓他所在政治陣營的很多人不安。

Such are the politics of trade in the US.

這就是美國的貿易政治。

The consensus among many Democrats with regard to trade agreements and globalisation is that they have not been kind to the middle class, having contributed to high-paying manufacturing jobs being shipped offshore and wages stagnating.

在貿易協定和全球化問題上，很多民主黨人的共識是，這些對中產階層不利，導致高薪製造業工作被外包到海外，並使工資不再增長。

Economists such as Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have raised doubts about TPP. Even as she has made friendly noises on trade, Nancy Pelosi, the powerful Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, has been blunt about the administration’s challenge. “The burden is on [the White House] to demonstrate that this is good for American pay cheques,” she said last week.

約瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和保羅•克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)等經濟學家一直對TPP提出質疑。美國衆議院頗有影響力的民主黨領袖南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)在貿易問題上的態度比較友好，但她還是坦率地談到了奧巴馬政府所面臨的挑戰。她上週表示：“（白宮的）任務是證明，這對於美國人的薪資有利。”

But, sitting before the brick hearth in his office, a spitting distance from the White House, Mr Froman is resolute.

然而，在距離白宮僅一步之遙的地方，坐在辦公室磚砌壁爐前的弗羅曼卻態度堅決。

“We’re doing this to protect American jobs and American workers,” he tells the Financial Times in an interview.

他在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示：“我們這麼做是爲了保護美國的就業和勞動者。”

The TPP is, he argues, a way to open up more markets for US goods and services in fast-growing Asia and to create high-paying jobs at home. It is also a way to level the playing field for American workers by including stronger labour and environmental standards that will be enforceable via trade sanctions. And, with Canada and Mexico included, to deliver on President Obama’s long-ago campaign promise to renegotiate Nafta, something the progressive wing of the Democratic party has long sought.

他認爲，TPP能夠在增長迅速的亞洲爲更多美國商品和服務打開市場，並在國內創造高薪崗位。它還可以納入能夠通過貿易制裁強制執行的更嚴格的勞動力和環境標準，爲美國勞動者創造公平競爭環境。加拿大和墨西哥的加入，將兌現奧巴馬總統很久以前提出的就《北美自由貿易協議》重新談判的競選承諾，這是民主黨進步派長期以來一直尋求的。

“There are a lot of people who raise very legitimate concerns about the impact of globalisation on patterns of production, on jobs, on wages. But I think it’s also important not to conflate globalisation with trade agreements,” Mr Froman says.

弗羅曼表示：“很多人就全球化對生產、就業和薪資模式的影響提出了非常合理的擔憂。但我認爲，同樣重要的是，不要把全球化與貿易協議混爲一談。”

“Globalisation is a force. It exists. The question is whether we can use trade agreements to shape it, or whether we want to just sit and be shaped by it.”

“全球化是一種力量。它是存在的。問題是我們能否利用貿易協議來影響全球化，還是說我們甘願坐等全球化來影響我們。”

The US, he says, needs to be at the forefront of setting global rules of commerce. Countries like China are engaged in their own rival bids to create regional blocs that exclude the US and do not include the sort of rules the US is pursuing on labour, intellectual property or the internet. Ceding ground to such rivals “has got to be worse for American workers and the American middle class than even the status quo”.

他表示，美國需要走在制定全球商業規則的前列。中國等國正試圖創建競爭性的區域集團，這些集團排斥美國，也排斥美國在勞動力、知識產權或互聯網領域所力推的那些規則。“對美國勞動者和美國中產階級而言”，向這些競爭對手讓步“比保持現狀更糟糕”。

Negotiators from the US, Japan and the 10 other countries in the TPP are involved in almost constant discussions. Obstacles clearly remain and negotiations are tough. But a TPP deal is “a small number of months” away, Mr Froman forecast during a Senate hearing last week.

來自美國、日本和其他10個TPP國家的談判代表正在進行近乎不間斷的磋商。障礙顯然存在，同時談判相當艱難。但弗羅曼在上週參議院的一次聽證會期間預測，達成TPP只有“幾個月”之遙。

The US has told its partners within the TPP that it wants to complete negotiations before the summer so that an agreement can be put to Congress by the end of 2015 and before the 2016 presidential campaign heats up.

美國已告訴其TPP夥伴國，美國希望在今年夏季之前完成談判，這樣協定就可以在2015年底之前遞交國會，趕在2016年總統大選升溫之前。

Amid pitched partisan battles on other issues, importantly the new Republican leadership in Congress says it wants to give Mr Obama the “fast-track” authority he needs to close the TPP and, eventually, a parallel negotiation with the EU.

儘管兩黨正在就其他問題展開激戰，但重要的是，國會新任共和黨領導層表示，希望賦予奧巴馬締結TPP、以及最終與歐盟完成類似談判所需的“快車道”授權。

Business groups, Republicans and the administration all believe a healthy majority in Congress will back a vote on what is formally called Trade Promotion Authority. Asked whether he expects such a vote to succeed, Mr Froman answers: “Yes”.

商業組織、共和黨人以及奧巴馬政府都認爲，國會的絕大多數議員都將支持就這項正式名稱爲“貿易促進授權”(Trade Promotion Authority)的措施投票。在被問及他是否預測投票會成功時，弗羅曼的回答是肯定的。

The consensus in the US is that Congress is likely to vote on fast-track authority within two-three months and that a TPP deal will be closed shortly thereafter. Mr Froman’s big moment — the US’s big trade moment — may well be not very far away.

美國的共識是，國會可能會在兩三個月內就“快車道”授權進行投票，TPP將在之後不久達成。弗羅曼的重大時刻——也是美國貿易的重大時刻——很可能不久就要到來了。