我們如何對抗恐怖主義威脅

In the EU, the chances of being killed by a terrorist in 2016 were just five times greater than being killed by lightning. The chances of being murdered for some other reason were more than 30 times greater than that of being killed by terrorists and the chances of dying in a sporting accident 51 times greater.

在2016年，一個人在歐盟(EU)境內被恐怖分子殺害的機率，僅爲被閃電劈死的機率的5倍；死於其他原因的兇殺的機率和死於運動事故的機率，分別是被恐怖分子殺害機率的30多倍和51倍。

Terrorism is frightening: indeed, its aim is to ignite fear. But surrendering to fear is to give terrorists what they want: the sundering of our open societies and the division of the world into believers and “crusader” enemies. We have no reason to give them this victory and must not do so.

恐怖主義令人恐懼：事實上，恐怖主義的目的就是製造恐懼。但向恐懼投降就會讓恐怖分子的如下陰謀得逞：割裂我們的開放社會，將世界分成信徒和“十字軍”敵人兩個陣營。我們沒有任何理由，也絕對不能奉送給恐怖分子這場勝利。

It should be noted that 2016 was a relatively bad year for EU terrorism. Robert Muggah, an expert on terrorism, notes that between 2010 and 2014, the average probability of dying at the hands of a terrorist was 0.0018 per 100,000 (0.0000018 per cent). This rose to 0.034 per 100,000 in 2015, then falling to 0.027 in 2016.

需要指出的是，2016年是歐盟恐怖主義活動相對不順的一年。恐怖主義專家羅伯特?穆加(Robert Muggah)指出，2010年至2014年，死於恐怖分子之手的平均概率是10萬分之0.0018（也就是0.0000018%）。這一概率在2015年提高到了10萬分之0.034，然後在2016年降到了10萬分之0.027。

This modest rise in the number of European victims of terrorism in recent years has struck fear in the hearts of many Americans: Donald Trump, for one, has milked it ferociously. Yet 15,696 people were murdered in the US in 2015, a rate of 4.88 per 100,000. In the UK, the murder rate was 0.92 per 100,000. That gap is really worth worrying about.

近年來歐洲的恐怖主義活動受害者數量的略微上升引起了許多美國人的恐懼：有些人大肆利用這一點，比如唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)。然而，2015年美國有15696人遭到謀殺，比例是10萬分之4.88。同期，英國的這一比例是10萬分之0.92。這種差距纔是真正值得擔憂的。

After the attack on June 3 on London Bridge and in Borough Market, Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, said that “we will never be cowed by terrorism”. I hope he is right. He added, for those in London, that “you will see an increased police presence today, including armed officers and uniformed officers. There is no reason to be alarmed by this.”

6月3日恐怖分子對倫敦橋(London Bridge)和博羅市場(Borough Market，見文首照片)的襲擊發生後，倫敦市長薩迪克汗(Sadiq Khan)說“我們絕不會被恐怖主義嚇倒”。我希望他是對的。他還說，對於身在倫敦的人來說，“今天你們將看到警力部署加強，包括全副武裝的警察和穿制服的警察。沒理由對此感到驚慌”。

The tweeter-in-chief replied: “At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is ‘no reason to be alarmed!’” Mr Trump’s misrepresentation is to be expected. So, alas, is his fomenting of panic. Yet, if Mr Khan had indeed said people should not be unduly alarmed, he would have been right. Such alarm is what terrorists want.

“首席推特官”特朗普的迴應是：“這場恐怖襲擊中至少有7人死亡，48人受傷，而倫敦市長居然說‘沒理由驚慌’！”（見下圖）特朗普歪曲事實是意料之中。唉，他煽動恐慌情緒也是意料之中。然而，即便倫敦市長真的說人們不應過分驚慌，那他也沒說錯。恐慌情緒正是恐怖分子想要看到的。

Mr Trump added, gratuitously: “Do you notice we are not having a gun debate right now? That’s because they used knives and a truck!” We are not having a gun debate in the UK because guns have, happily, been so effectively removed. What, one has to ask, might three men holding machine guns have done on that dreadful night?

特朗普還沒事找事地補充道：“你們注意到我們現在不辯論槍支問題了嗎？那是因爲他們用刀和卡車了！”在英國，我們並不辯論槍支問題，因爲令人高興的是，槍支已經被非常有效地禁止了。那麼人們要問了，在那個可怕的夜晚，3名持槍的男子可能會做出什麼事情來呢？

The president also used the London attack to justify his ban on travel from several Muslim-majority countries. Yet that ban is misdirected and misguided. It is misdirected because it includes only Syria, Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Libya and excludes countries in which Mr Trump does business. It is also misdirected, because it excludes Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose citizens perpetrated the September 11 attacks. It is misguided because it plays directly into the jihadi theme of a war against Islam. The ban is a political ploy: it has nothing to do with keeping the public safer.

特朗普總統還利用倫敦恐襲來證明，他針對幾個人口以穆斯林爲主國家的公民的入境禁令是正當的。然而，這項禁令不僅搞錯了目標，還搞錯了情況。說這項禁令搞錯了目標，一方面是因爲這項禁令只針對敘利亞、伊朗、也門、蘇丹、索馬里和利比亞，而不包括與特朗普有生意往來的國家，另一方面是因爲這項禁令不包括埃及、黎巴嫩、沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋，而9/11襲擊正是來自這些國家的公民實施的。說這項禁令搞錯了情況，是因爲這項禁令正好坐實了聖戰者的中心觀點：一場對伊斯蘭的戰爭。這項禁令是政治手段：與更好地維護公衆安全毫無關係。

Every terrorist attack is indeed an outrage. I do not wish to downplay this natural reaction. But it is also a political act. The aim is to sow panic and so induce a vicious spiral of action and overreaction. The goal is to destroy the possibility for Muslims and non-Muslims to live harmoniously side by side both within western democracies and in the world as a whole. This is a victory we must not give the perpetrators.

的確，任何恐怖主義襲擊都是暴行。我無意對這種自然的反應輕描淡寫。但恐怖主義襲擊也是一種政治行爲。其目的是播撒恐慌，由此引發行動和過度反應的惡性循環。其目標是摧毀穆斯林和非穆斯林在西方民主國家、乃至整個世界和睦共處的可能性。我們不能奉送給行兇者這場勝利。

Our response must be proportionate and principled: we must not abandon fundamental tenets of the rule of law; and we must also draw a clear line between perpetrators and enablers, on the one hand, and everybody else, on the other.

我們的反應必須是適度和有原則的：我們不能放棄法治的基本信條；我們必須在行兇者和協助者，以及其他所有人之間劃出清晰的界線。

It is of course possible to imagine actions so catastrophic that such relative calm could no longer be maintained. Nuclear or large-scale biological terrorism would, I expect, change everything. But that is not what we are confronting. On the contrary, the low-tech nature of many recent attacks — home-made bombs, lorries, cars and knives — suggests that a combination of controls on guns with effective action by, and co-operation among, security services has, so far, been quite effective. I cannot be the only one who has been surprised by the fact that an attack like 9/11 has not been repeated, so far.

想象出現極其災難性的恐怖主義行動，導致人們無法繼續維持這種相對平靜當然是有可能的。我預計，如果恐怖分子使用了核武器、或者大規模生物武器，那麼一切都會改變。但我們現在面對的不是這樣的情況。相反，最近許多恐怖襲擊技術含量較低（恐怖分子使用自製炸彈、卡車、汽車和刀具）的情況表明，採取有效行動控制槍支，再加上安保部門間進行合作，迄今而言成效顯著。驚訝於9/11這樣的襲擊迄今沒有再度發生的肯定不只我一個人。

Our values are right; theirs are wrong. Yet we cannot win a war of values if we abandon ourselves to the fear terrorists wish to sow. All lives are precious. We are right to lament their untimely loss. But we would be quite wrong to yield to those who would foment hysteria.

我們的價值觀是正確的；恐怖分子的價值觀是錯誤的。然而，如果我們屈服於恐怖分子希望播撒的恐懼，我們就不可能贏得這場價值觀之戰。所有的生命都是寶貴的。爲過早離世的死者哀悼是應該的。但向那些煽動瘋狂情緒的人屈服，則是大錯特錯。

Today’s terrorism is a very small threat indeed to western nations. We face far bigger ones. The right response is, in the words of a poster devised shortly before the second world war, to “keep calm and carry on”. That shall be our victory.

對西方國家而言，現今的恐怖主義實際上是一項非常小的威脅。我們還面臨一些更大的威脅。用二戰前不久設計的一份海報上的文字來說，正確的反應是“保持平靜，繼續前進”。如果能做到，我們就勝利了。