歐洲必須認真對待民粹主義威脅

In Europe it is hard to find two more solid democracies and flourishing economies than Sweden and Germany. Yet the strong performances of radical right protest parties in elections on Sunday show that even these models of prosperity and efficient government are infected with a virus that spreads over the entire continent.

在歐洲，很難找到兩個比瑞典和德國民主更穩固、經濟更繁榮的國家了。不過，極右翼抗議黨派(protest parties)在上週日選舉中的強勁表現證明，就連這些繁榮興旺、政府高效的典範國家，也被一種橫掃整個歐洲的病毒感染了。

Neither the Sweden Democrats, with 12.9 per cent of the vote in national legislative elections, nor Alternative for Germany (AfD), with 12.2 per cent and 10.6 per cent respectively in elections to the state parliaments of Brandenburg and Thuringia, came anywhere near outright victory. But their share of the vote shot up, demonstrating that few, if any, mainstream European conservative parties can assume themselves to be immune to the threat from unconventional movements on their right flank.

無論是在全國立法機構選舉中獲得12%選票的瑞典民主黨(Sweden Democrats)，還是在勃蘭登堡州(Brandenburg)和圖林根州(Thuringia)議會選舉中得票率分別爲12.2%和10.6%的德國新選項黨(AfD)，都談不上是大獲全勝。但它們得票率的大幅上升證明，很少有（假如真有的話）哪個歐洲主流保守黨派能夠想當然地認爲，自己可免受比自己更右翼的非常規運動的威脅。

Less than two weeks ago, an opinion poll suggested that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, would win the second round of the country’s 2017 presidential election against François Hollande. In Britain, the United Kingdom independence party, which, like the National Front topped the national polls in May’s European Parliament elections, is set to defeat the ruling Tories next month in a by-election in Clacton, southeast England.

不到兩週前，一項民調結果顯示，法國國民陣線(National Front)主席馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)在2017年的法國總統選舉中對陣弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)時，將在第二輪投票中勝出。在英國，英國獨立黨(UKIP)像法國國民陣線一樣，在今年5月於本國舉行的歐洲議會(European Parliament)選舉中得票率名列第一。在下月於英格蘭東南部的克拉克頓(Clacton)舉行的補缺選舉中，英國獨立黨有望擊敗執政的英國保守黨(Tories)。

From France and the Netherlands to Austria and Greece, the radical right is an established phenomenon. Even though it has never held power in an EU country, it is remoulding political landscapes. A minority government beckons in Stockholm because the 49 seats won by the Sweden Democrats have denied an absolute majority to the victorious parties of the left.

從法國、荷蘭到奧地利、希臘，極右翼勢力的崛起已是既成事實。儘管這股勢力從未在某個歐盟(EU)國家掌權，但它正在重塑歐洲的政治格局。斯德哥爾摩很可能會出現一個少數派政府，原因是瑞典民主黨贏得了49個席位，導致在選舉中獲勝的左翼政黨無法形成絕對多數。

AfD’s success – it now holds seats in three of Germany’s 16 state assemblies as well as the European Parliament – is one factor behind the electoral collapse of the liberal Free Democrats. For most of the Federal Republic’s history between 1949 and 2013, the FDP was the nation’s third party, an essential element of coalition governments and the pro-business voice in German politics. Now it has no seats in the Bundestag, the lower house. The latest miserable results in regional elections have removed it from the upper house where the states are represented.

如今，德國新選項黨在該國16個州議會中的3個擁有席位，在歐洲議會也擁有席位。該黨的成功，是導致自由派的德國自民黨(FDP)在選舉中潰敗的因素之一。在德意志聯邦共和國1949年至2013年曆史的大部分時間裏，德國自民黨都是第三大黨，是聯合政府不可或缺的組成部分，在政界屬於親商派。如今，該黨在德國議會下院——德國聯邦議院(Bundestag)——中已沒有席位。由於最近在地方選舉中遭遇慘敗，該黨在代表各州的議會上院中也被掃地出門。

AfD attracts disaffected voters from all parties. It is no longer a single-issue movement, mixing its original hostility to the euro and German-guaranteed financial bailouts with support for small businesses and improved education.

德國新選項黨從各個黨派那裏把心懷不滿的選民吸引過來。該黨不再是一個聚焦於單一問題的運動，而是一面繼續反對歐元和德國擔保下的金融紓困，一面支持小企業和改善教育。

Rightwing populism displays different characteristics from country to country, possessing a nastier far-right streak in Greece and Hungary than in Germany and the UK. One crucial element in the rise of AfD, the National Front and Ukip is the decision of their leaders to steer clear of explicit racism, let alone uniformed violence. Instead they aim to build respectability by concentrating on law and order, immigration, the overburdened welfare state and perceived threats to national identity.

右翼民粹主義在不同國家展現出不同特徵：與德國和英國的情況相比，希臘和匈牙利右翼民粹主義帶有更令人反感的極右色彩。德國新選項黨、法國國民陣線和英國獨立黨崛起的背後有一項關鍵因素：他們的領導人決定不訴諸露骨的種族主義，更別說身着制服實施暴力行爲了。相反，他們關注法律與秩序、移民、負擔過重的福利國家以及人們眼中國家認同受到的威脅，打算以此贏得尊重。

In contrast to Ukip and AfD, however, the origins of the Sweden Democrats lie in fringe rightwing extremism rather than traditional conservatism. They exploit popular misgivings about high immigration levels and the alleged failure of multiculturalism in a country that has long served as a haven for refugees from Iran to the former Yugoslavia.

但與英國獨立黨和德國新選項黨形成反差的是，瑞典民主黨起源於邊緣的右翼極端主義，而不是傳統的保守主義。他們利用了民衆對移民大量流入的擔憂、以及某些人口中多元文化主義在瑞典的失敗——長期以來，瑞典一直是從伊朗到前南斯拉夫等各國難民的避難所。

Like AfD, the Sweden Democrats revel in the fact that political and cultural elites treat them like polecats. They calculate that this contempt bestows on them an outsider status that helps their cause in an era of widespread disillusion with establishment parties.

像德國新選項黨一樣，瑞典民主黨陶醉於一個事實：政治與文化精英像對待臭鼬一樣對待他們。他們認爲，這種蔑視賦予了他們一種局外人的身份，在當權黨派普遍令人失望的時代，這種身份有利於他們事業的發展。

Across Europe the question is not if the radical right will come to power like Mussolini in 1922 or Hitler in 1933, but the extent to which its xenophobic populism will influence mainstream parties. At the moment the radical right is blowing its trumpet hard. But the walls of European democracy, like Jericho, are still standing.

歐洲各國面臨的問題，不在於極右翼勢力是否會像1922年的墨索里尼(Mussolini)和1933年的希特勒(Hitler)那樣上臺執政，而在於排外的民粹主義會對主流政黨產生多大影響。目前，極右翼正在賣力地自吹自擂。但歐洲民主的城牆就像傑里科(Jericho)一樣，仍然屹立如初。