美國左翼民粹主義尋找新靶子

If you mention the words “Elizabeth Warren” on Wall Street, many bankers metaphorically foam at the mouth. No wonder. In the long years since the financial crisis, Ms Warren — now a Democratic senator from Massachusetts — has relentlessly attacked the sector with a populist stance that has turned her into a darling of America’s left.

如果你在華爾街說出“伊麗莎白•沃倫”(Elizabeth Warren)這幾個字，許多銀行業人士會氣得七竅生煙。這也難怪。在金融危機爆發後的漫長歲月裏，現任馬薩諸塞州參議員的沃倫一直堅持不懈站在民粹主義的立場上攻擊銀行業，這也使她成爲了美國左翼的紅人。

But a subtle shift is under way. Ms Warren is still merrily attacking bankers whenever she gets the chance. She also enjoys strong support among grassroots Democrats — so much so that Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic presidential contender, is being forced to adopt many of Ms Warren’s themes to broaden her own appeal to the party.

但現在正在發生一種微妙的變化。沃倫依然一有機會就毫無顧忌地攻擊銀行家。她還得到了民主黨基層的強力支持，以至於連該黨領先的總統候選人提名角逐者希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)爲了拓寬自己在黨內的吸引力，也被迫借用沃倫的許多主題。

Today, however, it is not just Wall Street bankers who are in Ms Warren’s sights. On the contrary, she has recently focused much of her rhetorical fury on President Barack Obama’s efforts to secure fast-track authority to cut trade agreements with Asia and Europe.

然而，現在進入沃倫視野之內的不止是華爾街的銀行家們了。相反，她最近將大部分憤怒言辭留給巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統爲了同亞洲和歐洲達成貿易協定而爭取快車道授權的努力。

This week, for example, Ms Warren demanded that Democrats block the relevant bill, since “the current trade policy makes it nearly impossible to enforce rules that protect hard-working families, but very easy to enforce rules that favour multinational corporations”.

比如，沃倫最近要求民主黨封殺相關法案，理由是“當前貿易政策意味着幾乎不可能執行保護努力工作的家庭的規定，卻容易執行有利於跨國公司的規定”。

And, while Mr Obama has now won this particular fight, the episode highlights that on issues such as trade Ms Warren and other lawmakers from her party such as Sherrod Brown and Chuck Schumer are becoming more adept at co-ordinating well-planned campaigns with unions and other groups.

而且，儘管奧巴馬現在贏得了這一次戰鬥，但這一幕表明，在貿易等問題上，沃倫和謝羅德•布朗(Sherrod Brown)、查克•舒默(Chuck Schumer)等民主黨議員正變得更加善於聯手工會和其他團體發起精心策劃的運動。

There are two big lessons for investors and business executives around the world. First, it is no longer just the populist rightwing of American politics that has the capacity to deliver political surprises. In the years since the crisis, the Tea Party has been the force that has produced the most colourful headlines and forced mainstream politicians to shift their stance. But it is the populist left in America that could produce the political fireworks in the coming months; just take note of the surprising recent political resurgence of the unions on issues such as the minimum wage.

全球投資者和企業高管從中可以汲取兩大教訓。首先，有能力帶來政治震動的不再只有美國的右翼民粹主義勢力。在金融危機後的幾年中，茶黨(Tea Party)勢力一直是最精彩的報紙頭條的來源，還迫使主流政治人士改變了自身立場。但在接下來的數月中，引燃政治焰火的可能是美國左翼民粹主義勢力；只要注意一下近來工會在最低工資等問題上令人驚訝的政治復興就會明白了。

Second, Wall Street is no longer the only bogeyman people such as Ms Warren love to attack. This is striking. After all, in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, the finance industry was an easy target for populists to unite against. Not only was Wall Street at the centre of a painful financial crisis but many of the bankers themselves, such as Dick Fuld, the brash former chief executive of Lehman Brothers, seemed unable to cope with the public backlash.

第二，華爾街不再是沃倫這樣的人士喜歡抨擊的唯一惡人。這一點也引人注目。畢竟，在金融危機剛結束的時候，金融業很容易成爲民粹主義者團結起來抨擊的對象。不止是處於慘痛的金融危機的中心的華爾街，就連傲慢的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)前首席執行官迪克•富爾德(Dick Fuld)等銀行家，似乎在衆怒面前也無力招架。

The game has changed. For one thing regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, appear to make the industry safer (never mind that this act is distinctly flawed).

遊戲已經改變了。一方面，“多德-弗蘭克”金融改革法(Dodd-Frank)等法規似乎讓這個行業更安全了（暫且不提該法含有明顯缺陷）。

At the same time, many of the current crop of bank chief executives are so dull that they are harder to attack. Brian Moynihan of Bank of America and Michael Corbat of Citigroup are too bland to be easy political targets.

同時，當前這批銀行首席執行官中，許多人過於平淡無奇，更難被當作攻擊對象。美國銀行(Bank of America)首席執行官布賴恩•莫伊尼漢(Brian Moynihan)和花旗集團 (Citigroup)首席執行官邁克爾•科爾巴(Michael Corbat)過於沉穩，不容易成爲政治靶子。

Moreover, the issues thrown up by Wall Street are increasingly geeky. Regulators and politicians face the prospect not of bank collapses but of sifting through the arcane entrails of reforms ushered in by Dodd Frank.

此外，華爾街拋出的問題越來越專業化。監管機構和政治人士面臨的不是銀行破產的前景，而是梳理“多德-弗蘭克”法所開啓的改革的晦澀細節。

So, as memories of the crisis fade, what voters are most worried about is not whether their savings are safe or whether bankers are earning fat bonuses. Instead, what is on the radar screen are issues such as the scandal of sky-high student loans, disappearing middle-class jobs, police racism or the poor state of education.

因此，隨着人們對於金融危機的記憶逐漸消逝，選民們現在最憂慮的不是他們的存款是否安全，或者銀行家是否賺取了優厚的獎金，而是學生貸款超高的醜聞、逐漸消逝的中產階層就業機會、警察的種族主義或者教育水平低下。

And politicians are shifting tack in response. Take a look at Bernie Sanders, the main leftwing challenger to Mrs Clinton who is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Last month he launched his campaign in Vermont with a blistering attack on “wealth inequality” and the “greed” of the “billionaire class”. In this, he called for tax reform and a big new state programme of infrastructure investment — and denounced Mr Obama’s policies on trade. But, while he also included a standard attack on Wall Street — and a call to break up the banks — this was a minor, barely remarked upon section of the speech.

而政治人士也據此改變了策略。看看希拉里•克林頓主要的左翼挑戰者伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)吧，他在民調中的表現好得令人吃驚。上月，他在佛蒙特州(Vermont)開始競選活動，對“財富不平等”和“億萬富翁階層”的“貪婪”發起了言辭辛辣的攻擊。他呼籲進行稅制改革，推行新的大規模國家基礎建設投資計劃——還譴責了奧巴馬的貿易政策。但是，儘管他的發言中包含了對華爾街的標準化攻擊——以及分拆銀行的呼籲——但這只是一個次要部分，只是在演講的一部分簡單提及。

To many bankers, this rhetorical shift will seem like good news. Perhaps for the Clinton campaign, too, which has close ties with many Wall Street financiers. It is less welcome, however, for anyone who hopes to secure those trade deals without further protest.

對很多銀行家來說，這種言辭上的轉變似乎像是好消息。或許對希拉里•克林頓的競選來說也是如此，她與華爾街很多金融家關係密切。然而，對於任何希望確保達成貿易協定而不招致更多抗議的人來說，這種轉變就不那麼受歡迎了。

Either way, the vital point is this: as the level of banker-bashing ebbs, populist leftwing American protest could coalesce around all manner of unexpected themes. America’s C-suite should be warned: the fight over trade may be just a portent of a bigger trend.

無論如何，關鍵點是：隨着抨擊銀行家的激烈程度漸漸減輕，美國左翼民粹主義勢力可能會圍繞各式各樣意想不到的主題團結起來。美國企業的高層應該當心了：關於貿易的爭鬥或許只是一種更大趨勢的前兆。